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Is Apple Pay the Next Big Thing?

From Seeking Alpha. While the writer is pessemistic of Apple's venture into NFC payments, my personal view is that Apple Pay is huge and will bring NFC into the mainstream.

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1981305?source=iphoneportfolioapp_copy

Comments

  • edited September 2014
    `. I do like that Apple is getting a %, however small (0.15%.) With inflation, % of a number that is gradually growing over time.

    `. They are set up for Apple Pay at Whole Foods, which was one of the announced retailers. However, in a positive for me, that means I can use Google Wallet there - and did yesterday - as the machines are not Apple-specific. The new Verifone machines at Whole Foods actually seemed to pick up NFC much quicker than the machines at Walgreens and CVS.

    `. It's amazing to me that, in an economy where 70% of the economy is consumer spending that there has been such a lack of interest in upgrading the technology behind purchasing. The US is the last major developed economy to go to EMV cards (and that's taking forever) and NFC is common in other parts of the world, whereas it's taking ages to roll out here. That's really the whole thing with Apple Pay, Google Wallet, etc - if I can't use it at checkout aside from a handful of places, it doesn't go anywhere quickly. You really have to hope that 1, it starts to roll out quickly now with Apple Pay and 2:, the MCX (the mobile wallet venture backed by Target, Wal-Mart and other major retailers) is sunk because it's taken forever to get going and Apple Pay has taken the spotlight. Despite being long FIS, I just don't see MCX being successful as people aren't going to want to use something else besides their credit cards, which is what MCX was trying to push for.

    `. If it's actually true, I find quite interesting the possibility that Apple Pay is getting into China via Union Pay, the giant private CC company (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-pay-to-invade-china-with-help-from-unionpay-2014-09-11). If that is really the case, then that is an interesting non-bank play on Unionpay (which is not public) and a possible little bit of competition to Tenpay and Alipay.

    `. Again, I think availability of NFC pos terminals is the barrier that separates Apple Pay from being huge, but otherwise, I do think that they've managed to take something that has been done (Google Wallet) and evolve it in ways that are compelling. Additionally, their discussions that they are not doing this to collect data is going to appeal to retailers.

    `. The other thing that I think is interesting when you discuss retail and Apple that doesn't involve Apple Pay is the evolution of the check-out in general. A number of retailers have wandering employees with iPads as check-out terminals. I do think eventually some stores may go this way and then they have the real estate where the cash registers were to sell more products. Ingenico has a ton of various pos terminal products on their website, here's an example with Apple products: http://www.ingenico.com/en/products/payment-terminals/mobility/ismp/

    I am one of those people who has absolutely no desire to own a smartwatch whatsoever. However, as I noted in another thread, Apple's watch having NFC is big for things like payments and I think it'll be big for payment of transit.

    I don't know if Apple Pay will move the needle a whole lot early on in terms of Apple as a whole, but I think over the medium-long term it will hopefully be what starts NFC moving in the US and be a compelling part of Apple's "ecosystem."

    Lastly, there's also the matter if the iBeacons, which seem to have been forgotten about recently, possibly in part due to the move towards NFC for payments instead. Still, I think the Beacon technology could be very interesting to help transform the retail experience and I could see it elsewhere - it's already useful in stadiums and I could see it being very useful in airports (delay messages, etc) and museums.




  • Good discussion Scott. I remember when the iPod came out it didn't have much of a impact at first but after a bit of time it started to fly off the shelves.

    I have been reading that the iPhone 6 is already sold out. Deliveries are now 4-6 weeks. This may well be the largest iPhone launch in history.
  • edited September 2014

    Good discussion Scott. I remember when the iPod came out it didn't have much of a impact at first but after a bit of time it started to fly off the shelves.

    I have been reading that the iPhone 6 is already sold out. Deliveries are now 4-6 weeks. This may well be the largest iPhone launch in history.

    I think part of it becomes "what is a priority?" I do think there's an aspect where a lot of people in this country continue to have their mobile phone move towards the top of the list and there are a fair amount of people who are saying, "I'm not going to do this" (whatever that is) because I'd rather get the new iPhone. In other words, I think a fair amount of people are making choices and phones are winning out over other things - it's this (the phone) instead of that and the other instead of this, that and the other.

    I don't really like the price wars in this country between the mobile carriers, but I think those companies will continue to see demand from people who continue to hold their phone in high priority.

    I do think cable television is a gradual loser (and the statistics are already starting to show this), as the phone and internet (and Netflix, Hulu and maybe the service Verizon is talking about coming out with) win out over a cable TV model that doesn't seem to be working anymore (500 channels and less and less I have an interest in watching, yet I'm paying for all these channels I couldn't care less about) and has gotten ridiculously expensive.

    Additionally, CNBC just confirming Apple's 0.15% from Apple Pay transactions.

  • Yes I have seen that 0.15% figure. I think a lot of consumers will see Apple Pay and NFC in general as a safer way to pay besides the convenience. The fingerprint sensor is a huge plus for security and how Apple uses random numbers instead of your CC # plus random security codes adds to it. How that all works is a mystery but I'll leave that for another time. Security is becoming a huge issue especially with the Home Depot and Target hacks. Apple's icloud hacks has gone off the radar so to speak. That was a isolated case.
  • edited September 2014
    I do think the 0.15% is a good thing, as I'd much rather it be a % than a fixed amount.

    Also, Apple-related, I think this is an interesting look at the processor:

    http://www.extremetech.com/computing/189787-apples-a8-soc-analyzed-the-iphone-6-chip-is-a-2-billion-transistor-20nm-monster

    I don't think this happens tomorrow, but I am wondering a little bit if Qualcomm and Intel start facing a little more competition from some of their customers, who start coming up with more of their own chips in-house. Maybe I'm wrong, but something these companies may pursue with their cash.

    From the article: "25% faster on the CPU side means we can almost certainly discount an increase in core count. Instead, we are probably looking at a tweaked dual-core Cyclone CPU (higher IPC) that’s clocked slightly higher (perhaps 1.4GHz instead of the A7′s 1.3GHz). If you recall from last year, Cyclone is Apple’s 64-bit ARMv8 chip; it’s a superscalar beast that has more in common with desktop CPUs than something like Qualcomm’s Snapdragon."

    Discussion of Healthkit today:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-two-apple-medical-trials-110526026.html

    Apple announcing that pre-orders exceed 4M in the first 24 hours (record sales) and exceed supply. Additional supply for walk-in customers starting Fri (on CNBC.)
  • Thanks for those links Scott. I knew the A8 chip was more powerful but 2 billion transistors? Wow.

    The HealthKit is going to be another big venture for Apple. I had read before that they are working with Epic which is a major player in hospital medical systems including electronic charting and physician order entry . (CPOE)

  • edited September 2014
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  • edited September 2014
    What kinda meal can you put on the table for $11.60?

    Let's see ... At Walmart - 8 cheap generic hot dogs $3.79, pack of store brand buns $1.79, bottle Yellow Tail $5.99. Michigan taxes the wine @.06%. So add in 36 cents tax. Comes to $11.93.

    :)
  • You could have been behind some EBT payers? They usually have two transactions. One for the card and a cash one for the stuff not covered on EBT.
  • Via Bloomberg television; Apple just reported that iPhone 6 pre-orders topped 4 million in the first 24 hours.

  • Maurice said:

    So I went to another short line which made me happier. My payment to the grocer was by cash. I had to fish through a small change purse to get the 60 cents, because the grocery bill was $11.60. Then I got an idea. I asked the clerk to wait while I got out a single dollar to add to the Andrew Jackson that I already handed her. I noticed that she was 18 years old or younger. She gave me a blank stare and was paralyzed. So I informed her that she could give me back a $10 bill. The bagger told her that it was okay, and she should give me $10. I'm sure that she wishes that her employer and I were using Apple Pay.

    I'm sure the retailer does as well.

    Many retailers have rules against cashiers making change of any sort, even if its a simple switch of change once the cash paid is input. It has far less to do with a lack of trust in the cashier's counting skills than with the numerous scams that involve confusing the cashier and then switching money.

    The less cash employees have to handle, the happier retailers are because the chance for loss is minimized. At least until their card swipers are hacked. Paying with a phone hopefully solves much of that problem, and I'm sure retailers are perfectly happy to pay 15 bps for that. It also increases the ability for floor sales so people don't have to wait in line.

    People who write checks are the absolute worst though. Particularly when they think they are being safe.
  • edited September 2014
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  • Maurice- if you are referring to Edna Valley's Chardonnay, you should try almost any of the chardonnays in that price range from the Monterey peninsula area. Chardonnays here in CA have widely differing characteristics, but there are typically at least three major "taste types": from the Napa Valley, from Sonoma & Mendocino County areas, and from the Monterey area. The "oakiness" tends to run from highest in the Napa product to the least in the Monterey area. We keep all three, and choose depending upon the food that the wine will be served with.

    Major factors in the taste differences between the various areas are the differing soil types, microclimates with respect to day-heat and night-cool, and particularly the amount of water available for irrigation.

    Chardonnay is a very interesting grape type because there can be such a wide range of tastes, depending upon the producer and the vineyard areas. Edna Valley is very decent.
  • edited September 2014
    Crimson Wine Group (CWGL) is a spin-off of famed Berkshire-esque investment company Leucadia (and that company's former chairman is on the board.) I don't own it, but reasonably valued and shareholders get a discount on wine ordered.
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  • @Maurice

    PMed you about the cash POS stuff, which was getting a little too OT. Basically there are a lot of costs with cash that consumers never really see.

    If you like fruitier reds at a good price, try the Gnarley Head old vine Zin. It's like $14 out here, but is really drinkable. Also look for a good unoaked Chard.

    You can have it with hot dogs, which might be safer than you think! :)
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  • edited September 2014
    I just got an email from Bank of America saying:
    Bank of America is proud to bring our customers a new way to pay that's simple and convenient with a quick touch of your finger.

    Coming in October, Apple Pay will enable Bank of America customers with eligible debit and credit cards to pay for purchases on the go using their iPhone 6. Payments with Apple Pay will be accepted at over 200,000 stores and in select iPhone apps.

    Apple Pay is easy to set up and use:
    • Once you add your eligible Bank of America® credit or debit card(s), you can use Apple Pay to make purchases with the touch of your finger.

    • Plus, you'll continue to earn Bank of America card rewards on your purchases and benefit from our $0 Liability Guarantee1 and BankAmeriDeals®.
    Be on the lookout for more details from Bank of America and Apple on using Apple Pay on your new iPhone 6 when Apple Pay is made available in October.
    Two too big to fails created by one Apple a day?
  • @Anna, why is this a fail for you?
  • @Anna, why is this a fail for you?

    Huh? No Fail! Big Mob Wedding. Lotta loot. No fail possible!
  • Okay. ?

    First I don't work for Apple. Apple Pay is probably the safest way to make a transaction at this time. Starting with the thumb/finger print verification. Then Apple Pay doesn't use your cc number for the transaction but instead transmits random numbers for both the main # and the security code. So if someone had a reader nearby they would get garbage.

    No method is infallible. Cash is the worst. Once stolen it's gone. Checks are horrible. Cards can be stolen and or hacked somehow.

    Even if someone stole your iphone they couldn't use the Apple Pay function.

    I think this is way overdue. I hope Apple Pay will be incorporated for use at ATM machines. No way to hack your card then
  • edited September 2014

    Okay. ?


    I think this is way overdue. I hope Apple Pay will be incorporated for use at ATM machines. No way to hack your card then

    FIS is doing something like this:

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130321005346/en/Wintrust-Financial-Corporation-Pilots-FIS’-Cardless-Cash#.VBog4fldWAQ

    http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/178_127/why-wintrust-financial-is-testing-cardless-atm-transactions-1060357-1.html

    "After a customer connects a debit card to his mobile app online, he can tap on the mobile banking app to choose the amount he wants to take out in advance of frequenting an ATM. Then when he gets to the ATM, he clicks on a button to conjure up a QR barcode. He scans the code on the ATM, which will prompt the machine to spit out cash."

    I do think that Apple locking the NFC functionality to just Apple Pay is kind of interesting.
  • This morning I attempted to download the iOS 8 update for the iPhone. I have experienced busy servers before but between that and a couple of power cuts I gave up for tonight. I suspect Apple's servers are going crazy.

    Anyone else here downloading the update?
  • edited September 2014
    Didn't realize the 8.0 was already out. On the 7.0 release we tried for over an hour and gave up on the first day. Tried a few days later and it went smoothly.

    Looked at a 5C on sale for a dollar with a 2 year contract at a box retailer yesterday. Sure would enjoy such a fancy gizmo. But our 2 IPads - both cellular enabled - serve us well. 5GB data on the newer one, with hotspot, is only $50 a month. The older one we carry in the car or wherever. I like the no-contract "pay as you go" feature on these devices. A good phone plan with 3GB was going for $60 monthly and I guess you also pay monthly excise taxes on top - something the IPads don't incur. (Use an old tracfone for our voice com needs)

    To Your original question. Yes, I think the pay by phone will become very popular over time. Unlike some of the others that have tried it, Apple has the marketing clout and dominance in the market to make it a success. Kinda gets back to Jobbs' idea that they don't satisfy existing market needs, they create new ones and tell consumers what they need.
  • I'm a pay as you go person too. Much cheaper than a plan and over a two year period I save money. That depends on one's phone habits.
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  • edited September 2014
    Apparently visa has 1,000 people working on apple pay and JP Morgan 300.
    Maurice said:

    So from the client's perspective, is an Apple Pay transaction more like a debit card or credit card? I mean this in several ways.

    One, does the money come right out of your targeted bank account, or do you settle at the end of the billing cycle?

    Do you get the protections of a credit card, such as limited exposure to theft and the ability to dispute charges? I'm sure that there are plenty of others too.

    Apple pay is using your same credit card. Just via your phone instead of taking the card out of your wallet. I use google wallet where possible.

    I think you are absolutely more protected at the point of sale using either google wallet or apple pay vs using your physical card.
  • Your card benefits remain the same. The only difference is the mode of payment at the POS.
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