With the lull before earning season and mid term elections, I am wondering what investors on the board might be thinking, positioning, and or doing?
For me I have been mostly looking as the recent dip did not go deep enough to peak my buying interest in equities. In checking one of my reference sites I find that the S&P 500 Index is trading on a TTM P/E Ratio of 19.3 and on Forward Estimates at 16.8 while its year-to-date gain has been about 8.7%. With this I am wondering how much is still left in the ride until we reach year end? Yes, indeed a lot of uncertainties exist. I am still thinking October might bring a buying opportunity with a dip or pull back coming. After all, we have mid-term elections coming the first part of November before we get to the traditional fall rally phase part of the year starting somewhere between Halloween to Thanksgiving and carrying on past Christmas to the first part of the New Year.
My target asset allocations are 15% cash, 35% income, 40% equity and 10% other. Currently, I am cash heavy at 20%, income light at 25%, equity heavy at 45% and neutral in other assets at 10% as shown by Morningstar’s x-ray. I’d like to move 5% of my cash to equities for the anticipated traditional fall stock market rally but wish to position in during a good dip or pull back in the stock market. Should we get to the rally without the anticipated dip then I’ll just most likely let things ride as they are and forgo a rebalance after the 1st quarter. Heck, I always enjoyed my fall rally “spiff” investment move as it was a way I generated a little extra cash. My spiff investments set ups have been hard to come by of late.
I’ll close with I am currently just looking while I ponder.
So ... What might you be thinking?
Old_Skeet
Comments
Tampabay
Long% Short% Net%
Cash 3 0 3
U.S. Stocks 77 0 77
Foreign Stocks 5 0 5
Bonds 14 0 14
Other 1 0 1
Not Classified 0 0 0
Total 100 0 100
For What its Worth: 77% U.S. stocks 3% cash 0% short, Ready for 4th Quarter run up? Really.....
In review of your portfolio's Holding Detail Morningstar ... You are listing cash at 3% net. I am wondering if this is your total cash position of your whole portfolio which would include all cash held outside of your investment positions? I add my cash area holdings into Xray by using this entry CASH$ and then the amount. You'd be surprised how adding this outside cash effects your overall allocation. And, with the way I am taking your current listing for cash held would reflect how much cash your fund managers are holding? Am I correct?
If I am understanding your use of the word "Really" I take it that you are doubtful about a 4th Quarter rally? Would you comment further on why you believe this traditional rally might not happen? And, with this, why your are currently holding such a large equity postion of better than 80%. Anyway, that would be real equity heavy for me at my current age (60's) but maybe not if I was in my 20's, 30's or perhaps in my 40's.
Just wondering your thinking on this?
Cordially,
Old_Skeet
Can't wait until earnings season.
Suspect it will be pretty good, given the vibrancy across nation this summer.
M* says I'm US Eq 50/EM 10/US Bond 10/Cash 30, shorts factored in.
Thanks for the comment.
Old_Skeet
I'm like you....cash ready, hang tough. It's coming..... after all, the G-20 are meeting now, so please be calm. We don't want to scare the children, now would we? I was looking in Fidelity funds because of EU doing QE. Thought some money. Would go elsewhere in the world. Bumped into this fund FEMEX. Wow! I say run away if this is the best they got. I am waiting for a small & mid cap fall....not so much the big stuff. Am buying silver now. Does anybody have any investments for the strong dollar? I am looking at MAPIX, GLFOX for this. Also, for U.S. mid caps: CHTTX. I like the girls. I also saw (on CNBC) that 1 in 4 Americans want to secede from the country. Me, too! And my state stinks, too. Duke says I can be President of our country if I want to. He said he'll be the army... not sure how well that's going to work out. Wife says she wants to be First Lady, and that means a new wardrobe. Can you say, deficits already?! That also means a new car...have to go in style. Maybe I can print my own money....that would help. Get some inflating going. That always helps things. Duke wants a new doghouse. Awww, the military always wants something. I guess I have to give it to him. Don't want a coup. He's been snappy since the pool's closed. Anyway, looking for a pullback really bad. I want to buy some things. Cash doesn't pay well.
Party on Dudes!
the Pudd
Thanks for stopping by and expressing your perspectives.
It's interesting that many are awaiting this anticipated pullback ... and, most of those that are awaiting are also wanting to do some buying. Perhaps that is why we have not gotten the depth in a pull back I have been looking for as many start buying once we begin seeing about a two to three percent drop in valuation.
Well, either way ... I am ready.
Old_Skeet