Somewhere I have an article by an academic (ugh!) that of all the indicators out there for the equity market, the best is the junk bond market. I have never been real enamored of that one as my introduction to junk bonds was in January 1991. Back then equities were coming out of a 3 month mini-bear market and *led* the junk bond market out of one its worst bear markets on record. However, in 2008, that historic bear market in junk ended in mid-December 2008 while equities didn't bottom until early March 2009. So back then junk indeed was the leader. This time around, the average junk bond open end fund and the junk bond ETF topped in late June/early July. There was much made back then about how the small time investors had panicked while the smart money swooped in and picked up the pieces. The smart money (never met them in over 45 years at this game) is not looking real smart right now as junk is getting ready to take out its recent lows. And in the chart below of one of the junk ETFs ( a really ugly chart) that low has already been taken out.
Note: My comments are meant as philosophical entertainment only. I have found my opinions and the opinions of any other talking heads are pretty worthless when it comes to accumulating wealth. No one, absolutely no one can predict or forecast with any consistent accuracy in the short run. That's why I listen only to the action of the market itself and adjust my positions accordingly. I would hate to think where I would be had I listened to my own opinions or the opinions of others over the years.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=hyld&insttype=&freq=&show=
Comments
Gundlach ‘Not Really Afraid Of Junk Bonds’ Now, Adds More 9/9/2014
http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2014/09/09/gundlach-not-really-afraid-of-junk-bonds-now-adds-more/
Pimco Scoops Up Quality Junk Cast Off in High-Yield Fund Exodus 8/19/2014
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-19/pimco-scoops-up-quality-junk-cast-off-in-high-yield-fund-exodus.html