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Another Periodic Table of Returns

MJG
edited January 2015 in Fund Discussions
Hi Guys,

Ted just posted the Callan 2014 Periodic Table of Returns.

The Callan Table is the granddaddy of the many versions of these data that are now published. It’s great stuff. But I prefer an American Century edition. Here is its Link:

https://www.americancentury.com/content/dam/americancentury/ipro/pdfs/flyer/Periodic_Table.pdf

Note that some of the ranking categories and quoted annual returns are slightly different between these two excellent sources.

Best Regards.

Comments

  • TedTed
    edited January 2015
    @MFO Members: Here is Prudential's take on of the Periodic Tables, and commodities table.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://investment.prudential.com/util/common/get?file=1D065355D2CC360385257B7D00536F8A

    Commodities Table:
    http://www.visualcapitalist.com/periodic-table-commodity-returns/
  • catch22catch22
    @Ted
    Thanks for the Pru table. The second section is especially interesting with the portfolio percentage mixes. Only rub for some of the tables is the absence of high yield bonds or multi-sector bonds that reflect more than AGG bond style.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    >> Prudential's take-off

    Not sure that is the right word, maybe "take on"? Takeoff implies humor and sarcasm.
  • TedTed
    @davidmoran: Now are you happy !!!
  • MJG
    Hi Ted,

    Many thanks for the other Periodic Table of Returns references. They all inform.

    It doesn't much matter if these Tables are take offs, takeoffs, take aways, or whatever. What does matter is that all these graphic summaries demonstrate a single, consistent lesson.

    There is no discernible pattern to investment category annual returns. A regression to a mean seems like an iron law. Chaos is a dominant characteristic which makes forecasting a Loser's game.

    Best Wishes.
  • JunksterJunkster
    MJG said:

    Hi Ted,

    Many thanks for the other Periodic Table of Returns references. They all inform.

    It doesn't much matter if these Tables are take offs, takeoffs, take aways, or whatever. What does matter is that all these graphic summaries demonstrate a single, consistent lesson.

    There is no discernible pattern to investment category annual returns. A regression to a mean seems like an iron law. Chaos is a dominant characteristic which makes forecasting a Loser's game.

    Best Wishes.

    Our biases make us see what we want to see.

  • catch22catch22
    edited January 2015
    @Junkster
    You noted: "Our biases make us see what we want to see."

    >>>Agree.

    MJG noted: "There is no discernible pattern to investment category annual returns. A regression to a mean seems like an iron law. Chaos is a dominant characteristic which makes forecasting a Loser's game."

    >>>The regression to a mean does indeed exist, and therefore creates pattern via a chart, IMO; at least within a defined sector, as is indicated in the Callan layouts presented here. Such a pattern may not always be of overall value for a broadbased U.S. etf as, VTI ; but may have more value in more defined and narrow sectors. I don't attempt to forecast, but I do use all of my skills and intuition to help remove chaos from investments to what is very near term.

    Near term for our house is a time frame shorter than 1 year. We have stayed, or some would presume that we were going to overstay some of our bond fund positions. The exception being our exit from the high yield bond area. So far, so good.
    Our house will remain U.S. centric with equity and bond funds, for the time being; while watching other areas.

    As to the regression to the mean; we do use visual aids to help with this, too; being charts. The basis of the chart for us being mainly the pricing; including relative strength at the high and low ends.
    A thought that helps direct our investment areas is that there are usually decent investments for the various seasons of money cycles.

    Junkster, as you well understand; there are many small and complex pieces to everyone's decisions for investing; and not just from intuition (experience). Time and effort need to be put forth for the decisions, eh?

    Don't always get things right; but do limit damage.

    Well, anyway; just some jabbering.

    Take care,
    Catch

  • JunksterJunkster
    edited January 2015
    catch, if there were some sort of periodic table for equity sector funds going back to the 90s you better believe you would find a lot of trend persistency. Where would some of us be were it not for tech and telecom in the late 90s. Or for that matter from the late 80s throughout the next decade. Look what biotech has done the past several years and how some here have exploited that trend. Same goes for a periodic table of all the various bond sectors. Real trend persistency there with emerging markets debt and high yield corporate debt leading the way.
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