78.4 shares. Trad. IRA, credited to 2011. I dunno if China will manage a soft landing or not. And I've said over and over in here that "Asia is the future." That's still true. Even if we ARE in a "New Normal" environment. I think profits and our cap. gains from mutual funds will be more subdued for the foreseeable future, yes. On plain, simple straightforward demographics, Asia will be eating our lunch for years to come. In the West, we've already become an Empire of Consumption rather than Production. Biting off its own nose to spite its face, Asia wants to become like us. Regardless of the broader picture, including ethical considerations, Jakarta, Manila, Beijing and Mumbai will be doing better than ourselves here in the USA, going forward. Short and Medium-term, the dollar might make a temporary comeback. And let's remember that it's Quick-profit-in-and-out TRADERS that drive the market, not INVESTORS. ("In-and-out" remind you of anything in particular? It's deliberate.)
Comments
By the way - I also really like MAPIX as well.
However, I think it may be worth consideration of a manager with a differing (at least at the moment) opinion as a sort of diversifier/hedge. Marketfield (MFLDX) is a long-short fund with a solid track record (the fund lost 12% in 2008, then gained 31% in 2009 and 14% in 2010); I don't agree with them regarding EM or precious metals (at last check, they are short EM as well as financials and are using an futures strategy w/metals), but as a moderate portion of my portfolio, I've allowed their views (some of which I do agree with, some of which I don't) in.
There's a long and informative review with the manager here:
http://www.marketfield.com/AdvisorPerspectives20111121MAM.pdf
Additionally, the fund is highly flexible and will likely change quite a bit over time - so while I don't agree with their views entirely now, the fund may also look very different 6 months from now and their track record is quite good. I believe poster Bob C also uses this fund.
RETIRED religious sort of guy, Old Joe! Hee hee hee.
Definitely do your own research, but if you want to consider including alternative strategies, it is worth a look.
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From a Marketwatch article on the fund:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flexibility-is-key-for-marketfield-fund-2011-10-25
"Michael Aronstein's Marketfield fund has one big advantage many other mutual funds don't: flexibility.
Aronstein's $764-million fund has a broad mandate, allowing it to go long and short stocks, invest across different sectors and countries, even buy and sell futures and commodities.
"It's basically a hedge fund in a mutual-fund package," Aronstein said. "We have the flexibility to go pretty much to any asset category, either long or short."
_______________________________________________________
The strategy portion of the fund's prospectus:
"To achieve the Fund's investment objective, the Adviser will allocate the Fund's
assets among investments in equity securities,fixed-income securities and other
investment companies, including exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"), in proportions
consistent with the Adviser's evaluation of their expected risks and returns.
In making these allocations, the Adviser considers various factors, including
macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings at a macroeconomic level, anticipated
inflation and interest rates, consumer risk and its perception of the outlook of
the capital markets as a whole. A macroeconomic strategy focuses on broad trends
and is generally distinguished from a strategy that focuses on the prospects of
particular companies or issuers. The Adviser may allocate the Fund's investments
between equity and fixed-income securities at its discretion, without limitation.
The Fund's investments in fixed-income securities normally consist of investment
grade corporate bonds and debentures, mortgage-backed and asset-backed
securities, United States Treasury obligations, municipal securities,
obligations issued by the U.S. Government and its agencies or instrumentalities
and convertible securities. The Fund may also invest in zero-coupon bonds,
without limitation. In addition, the Fund may invest up to 30% of its net assets
in high-yield fixed-income securities commonly referred to as "junk bonds." The
fixed-income securities in which the Fund invests may have maturities of any
length and may have variable and floating interest rates.
The Fund's equity securities investments may include common and preferred stocks
of U.S. companies of any size. In addition, the Fund may invest up to 50% of its
net assets in equity or fixed-income options, futures contracts and convertible
securities and may invest up to 30% of its net assets in swap agreements.
Additionally, with respect to 50% of the Fund's net assets, the Fund may engage
in short sales of index-related and other equity securities to reduce its equity
exposure or to profit from an anticipated decline in the price of the securities
sold short.
The Fund may invest up to 50% of its net assets in equity securities of foreign
companies of any size, including up to 35% of its net assets in securities
issued by corporations or governments located in developing or emerging
markets. The Fund's investments in foreign securities may include, but are not
limited to, American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs"), European Depositary Receipts
("EDRs") and Global Depositary Receipts ("GDRs"), including up to 35% of its net
assets in securities issued by corporations or governments located in developing
or emerging markets.
The Fund may borrow money from banks or other financial institutions to purchase
securities, which is commonly known as "leveraging," in an amount not to exceed
one-third of its total assets, as permitted by the Investment Company Act of
1940, as amended (the "1940 Act"), and may also engage in securities lending to
earn income.
Security selection for the Fund is driven by the Adviser's top-down analysis of
economic issues, investor sentiment and investment flows. Once the Adviser has
identified a theme that either benefits or disadvantages a specific sector or
country, it seeks to implement an investment strategy that is appropriate for
the Fund. In some cases, the Adviser utilizes a sector- or country-specific ETF
that offers exposure to a broad range of securities. In other situations, the
Adviser may select a single issue that is perceived to be particularly germane
to a specific concern or a small group of issues with characteristics that match
the goal of creating portfolio exposure to a macroeconomic theme."
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=530169
Fund Manager Q&A
Asia Is Front-Runner in Global-Growth Race
===========================
"Sharat Shroff is a portfolio manager at Matthews International Capital Management. He manages the firm's Pacific Tiger and India strategies and comanages the firm's Asia Growth strategy. Specific to Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX), he recently answered our questions on how to navigate the market in times of volatility while at the same time minimizing risk potential. He also offered a constructive outlook for China in 2012 and how investing in smaller markets such as Thailand and Indonesia can provide a boost to overall investment opportunities. Lastly, Shroff mentioned that focusing on household-income-driven industries, such as the consumer, health-care, and financials sectors, is prudent."