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[Daniel Kahneman] with his long-time collaborator Amos Tversky, who died in 1996, delineated the biases that warp our judgment, from figuring out if we can trust a prospective babysitter to buying and selling shares. In 2002 he was awarded the Nobel prize in economics, a testament to the boundary-busting nature of his research...
The next problem on his list is “noise”, or random variability: the fact that different people in the same situation make very different judgments. Random error is a very different phenomenon from the systematic biases he’s been studying for several decades. It’s the kind of error you can’t reliably predict.
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derf
The Power of Habit book
Use the MFO Amazon link to purchase.
Regards,
Catch
A very nice summary of the life experiences that were major factors in contributing to Kahneman's perspectives and life style.. Everything is a web of couplings, some strong, some illusively weak.
Kahneman's entry into "noise" studies should be interesting. Some work has already been done on the error rate that radiologists make when reading X-rays. Even when examining the same picture a second time, these experts produce a different judgment.
They too, like most of us, have good days and bad days. The technology in the X-Ray reading business has progressed to the point where computer analysis of the data is more accurate than that performed by the experts.
I'm sure Kahneman will uncover many such situations. He is a terrific researcher. His book is a must read.
Best Wishes.