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This could just be the beginning! Dow 5000??

edited August 2015 in Fund Discussions
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-5000-yes-it-could-happen-2015-08-21?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Will probably see a lot of these warnings as the Cassandras come out in force after this week's carnage. Sure would have liked to have seen more fear here this week instead of buying the dips and averaging down on losers as the market kept cascading downward.

Comments

  • @Junkster, here on this board? or elsewhere?
  • edited August 2015
    Personally, I'm very concerned.

    I'm buying, but I don't think I'm buying in the traditional "buy the dip" mentality. I'm buying because I think something is a tremendous value (BPY, which I'll just keep continuing to buy - it's an MLP w/K-1 and not something I'm recommending because it's not conservative, but I think it's absurdly cheap), I'm buying because I really like a company a great deal and think of it as a decades-long holding and don't want to time it (Ecolab, Canadian National Railway, V/MA, others.) I'm buying because I think the market was already mis-understanding the fundamentals and is now indiscriminately selling the sector/panicking on top of it (Gilead). I'm buying because there's an element of me that's concerned that talk of rate rises turns to talk of "next-level" monetary policy easing when things turn South.

    Am I buying because I think things are going to be a-okay? No. If anything, I'm certain that this period in the markets ends badly - it's not a question of if, it's a question of when and how - it's particularly the how that interests me as I think things may look very different than past crises and I'm not sure that owning cash and bonds will be the way to go again.
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  • I heard on Bloomberg that a 30% correction happens every 3.5 years on average. So far, nothing unusual.
  • Dow 5000?

    Uh, no. Not even close. Brett Arends needs to take a cold shower to clear his head.
  • Hope dow gets to 9k so i canbuy more. Mlp are easy to .anage if you have turbotax
  • I also have funds to deploy, but I can do without a further 40% reduction to Dow 9000.

    That would be utter chaos.
  • The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • No doubt there's some noodling going on about what to do on Monday.
  • Better entry points are abound in near future. Thus I will be patient.
  • I would think the one thing that could cause the greatest decline in the market is not China but more pain in the energy markets. More pain would be greater than expected bankruptcies and then a rout in the junk market. As much as we have heard about falling junk bond prices recently, they are still outperforming stocks YTD. Of course, energy is also what could lead the market back to new highs- namely an unexpected rebound. Then again, maybe there is something lurking out there we don't yet see that could lead to a further 15% to 20% or more market decline.
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