No Afternoon Coffee,
Not that it will really matter to anyone here; but if I am at the pc before the market close today, the remainder of FSAGX will be sold and equally/split moved to FRIFX and FNMIX. This will stop the bleeding in this sector.
'Course, as noted previous this action will likely find a buy signal for metals funds and gold will also begin another up move; after a $1,600/oz bottom.
:):)
The dollar remains strong and I don't find anything on the near horizon that may change this status; which may continue to have negative implications towards gold and related.
Also, if the sell in May does or doesn't come about, both FRIFX and FNMIX held their own in the spring 2010 and 2011, as well as the July 2011 equity face slaps and EM bond funds have held their positive positions in spite of the stronger dollar. Worse case is that we hope to maintain a positive nav and place our hands forward from the yields from each fund.
The employment numbers come forth tomorrow (Friday); but I do not anticipate any surprises, past the notion that a few more folks have jobs and the numbers related to this will be slightly positive.
We continue to live in interesting times, eh?
Signing off for now with fingers crossed, and knowing sometimes "it is just plain luck".
Catch
Comments
in years past every time I revised the chart to accommodate an increase in profits the markets immediately tanked and rendered the new charts useless. As I've mentioned before- this year the columns are clear off the top of the charts but I WILL NOT revise them!!
Regards,
Ted
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FSAGX+Interactive#symbol=fsagx;range=ytd;compare=ijh+qqq+prhsx;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Purchased FSAGX 8-11-11. First chunk sold 3-6-12 at -9.8%; the remainder is gone today at what I will guess may be a nav of around $36.50; which would have about a -26% or so.
As our portfolio is constructed, FSAGX wasn't 10, 20 or more % of the mix; and has friends like FAGIX which we began holding again on 5-14-2009.
FSAGX over the past two year period of 5-4-2010 through 5-3-2010 is at a -7.7% via the nav price. Probably worse funds out their somewhere in the funds universe for this period, and not much worse than the hedge funds average returns of 2011 of -4.5%.
Take care,
Catch
Hi Ted,
Congratulation on your short term winners. I too have similar holdings (PRHSX, PRMDX & USNQX). I also own a fund similar to Catch's in USAGX.
My strategy (not to speak for Catch or anyone else) is to take some winning and reposition them into other under performing long term holdings I own. Right now that happens to be USAGX and some others in my portfolio. I will admit that this is a bit of a "falling knife" reinvestment strategy.
Being a long term owner USAGX (over ten years), I took your chart out a little farther back in time to point out that I was a buyer of your funds/ETFs when they under performed and a periodic seller of USAGX (FSAGX) as it out performed.
5 year Comparison:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FSAGX+Interactive#symbol=fsagx;range=5y;compare=ijh+qqq+prhsx;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
I calculate "out performance" based on my buy point to when I have achieved a 10% gain. This triggers a 10% sale and a realization of my winnings. If this out performance continue I take profits for each 5% gain thereafter. I try to reallocated these gains elsewhere. For me, elsewhere has been: USAGX, VDE, TGBAX, WAEMX, and PRPFX most recently. I try to keep track of my gains and losses...the ebb and flow...sometimes, the sky rocketing and the sky diving...of my funds. My hope is that my active reallocation will help balance these dynamics out and in the end improves my overall long term gains.
I will also say that when interest rates rise I will reconsider my commodities and gold holdings but for now I maintain exposure in these areas...somewhere between 5-10%.
Over the years I have learned a lot the from you and others here at MFO (and Fund Alarm)...I hope we can continue to share, learn, and grow from each other.
Comments and Charts:
http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/wow-golds-wall-of-worry/