Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal


  • coming true?
  • Just more of what has been occurring the past many months. Let's hope this move is for real and not a fake out like so many in the past several years.
  • Add in the Dec Fed meeting and possible rate rise and things could get interesting.
  • edited October 2016
    Pardon me. But it seems like we've been discussing how scary rate sensitive bonds are for at least as long as MFO has been in existence. Throw in the stock alarm (err ... "caution") thread and I don't know why anyone would ever invest.:)
  • MJG
    edited October 2016
    Hi Guys,

    I sure don't pay as much attention to near term market trends, either stock or bond, as many MFO board participants do. That's my bad. There's both a plus and a minus aspect to my lazy behavior.

    I often entirely miss the nuances and other market signals that you guys see. Perhaps that's happening when interpreting the bond data chart that DanHardy referenced. I'm not too exercised by it because of the scant statistical data that supports the argument. There's not much there.

    Equity market reactions to interest rate changes is very complex. Depending on a wide variety of specific market and economic conditions near the time of the interest rate change, the equity marketplace has reacted in wildly different ways. Here is a Link to a TIAA study that explores this issue:

    From a statistical perspective, nothing is firmly established. One expert's guesstimate just about equals another expert's projection. We seem to want to read more into most data than really exists. In that sense, I'm in Hank's ballpark.

    Here is another Link that examines equity market behavior after a Fed interest rate change on a case-by-case basis:

    Again, the equity market reactions are very divergent and situation dependent. As always, we get to choose our own poison. In my case, I am lightening up on equities, but that is age related and not influenced by the initial reference's main chart.

    I hope you find these other Links useful in your decision making process.

    Best Wishes.
Sign In or Register to comment.