Morgan Stanley thinks there could be another big stock market selloff coming and states their reasons in the below linked article. Those heavy in technology, consumer discretionary and small caps will be effected the most.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/prepare-for-the-biggest-stock-market-selloff-in-months-morgan-stanley-warns-2018-07-30?siteid=rss&rss=1Although I am not heavy in tech, discretionary and small caps by having a well diversified portfolio I do have exposure to them. Perhaps, there will be a rotation from these leading sectors into some other sectors and the Index's valuation will not drop as much as some believe. I'm thinking with the outlook for continued strong earnings there will be sector rotations over a big sell off; however, valuations could decline before a foothold is reached. In addition, I'm seeing the possibility of some rough market conditions as we approach midterm elections. So, yes indeed, another pullback is (I think) in the making. After the elections I'm also thinking the market turns upward. From my perspective the stock market in general is fully valued and with the above stated headwinds approaching why not expect a pullback. So, with this, in the nearterm I continue to build cash as my mutual funds make disburesment. Over the next three months this should raise my cash allocation by a good percentage point or better if I trim some positions.
Linked below is what Zero Hedge writes on the above.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-30/morgan-stanley-selling-has-just-begun-correction-will-be-biggest-february?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)Interestingly, they point out that the three best performing sectors since June 18th have been the traditional defensive sectors of utilities, health care and staples followed by telecom, real estate and financials. Since, I am currently overweight in these sectors (and I have an all weather asset allocation) I'm going to just sit and watch the market (and sector movement) before I do any trimming as I am underweight tech and discretionary.
Perhaps some of our more seasoned and master investors will make comment regarding Morgan Stanley's call; and, what currently they may be doing themselves.
Have a great day ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Comments
Just in case I've noted this date. If nothing happens in one year, I will try and be the first to predict market correction.
I'm still waiting for inverted yield curve (sic) to take effect.
Sit and watch - great policy. I just keep taking profits and buying same funds again and again and again. Keeps me sane.
Investors should periodically reallocate gains:
If your "cow" is full of milk...milk your cow. Milk can feed you (be used as income) or it can be used to make dairy products (be used to buy other assets).
Link:
earnings-and-stock-market-valuations
I don’t mind people keep saying this. I do object that the *#@#! article says nothing about what “preparations” you’re supposed to take. From the photo, I’m left with the impression I need to find an umbrella. Would that work?
Q: "Surely you jest in modesty?" A: Perhaps so ... Perhaps not.
I was thinking this post would draw a fire storm of comments. Anyway, the post is what it is and that is a call by a major brokerage house that much alines itself with that of my own. Perhaps, others that are on the board and are what I consider "seasoned and master investors" don't wish to make know their call (or positioning) known (for fear of a wrong call discrediting them). And, that is ok. However, I'm one that will share and post my thinking.
Hey ... Old_Skeet is positioned for some sector rotation along with running an all weater asset allocation I'm ready should the "called" storm to present itself ... and, well if dosen't ... then, I'm also positioned to take advange of some more upside. Now, that is having it both ways.
My most recent July barometer reports contains "my call" and is linked below.
"Now that we are again approaching all time highs for the Index I'm thinking that once we get through earning season the Index will perhaps pullback and thus present a better buying opportunity as we move into early fall; and, then turn upward after midterm elections. Anyway, this is how I am planning to play it. I'll let my equity weighting matrix assist me with my call as how to position the equity allocation within my portfolio along with a seasonal trend investment theory."
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/42056/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-and-report-june-july-recaps#latest
I sincerely wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
My sense is that the market could drop on a "political" development rather than a "economic" or fundamental swing. Such a drop could be ugly and of indeterminate length because the uncertainty unleashed by such an event will test the will of the Republic. BTW, I have no qualifications for making such a prognostication.
Old Skeet,
Perhaps in earlier times it would have. But it appears now that the markets have finally attained Irving Fisher’s permanently high plateau. (nearly 100 years late).
From another recent thread, it appears that old codgers who actually look at their portfolios may be a dying breed. For today’s investors the modus operandi seems to be petal to the metal / balls to the wall all the time.
What could possibly go wrong?
For me, Morgan Stanley's call was derived from science as well as art and when formulated formed their call uing their craft while bee's graph posting centers around only science.
Art I suspect may have a variety of definitions. However, as your question suggests, it is most often seen as something opposite science. To me art emphasizes aesthetic value - something pleasing to the senses (for example, a home designed by Frank Lloyd Wright or a painting by Norman Rockwell).
Other than the fact that I can draw a very attractive (even colorful) pie-chart, scoping out the various elements of an all-weather portfolio (or any other type) I do not consider investing to involve art - as I understand the word. So I think that what you’re really talking about Old Skeet is intuition.
Intuition may be defined as:
(1) direct perception of truth, fact, etc., independent of any reasoning process; immediate apprehension.
(2). a fact, truth, etc., perceived in this way. a keen and quick insight.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/intuition
Great investors have the ability to qiickly size up a situation and take appropriate actions without having to seemingly grind through all the complex evidentiary / reasoning steps most employ. This likely involves their ability to assimilate similar patterns they have studied or witnessed in the past and than to apply them to the current situation. But to them the process appears much quicker - a type of unconscious reasoning / decision making - if you will. And yes, this intuitive ability is often taken as art. I don’t think it really is.
Regards
@BenWP: Yes, you certainly do.. as do all of us. Just read any decent newspaper, and you're qualified.