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Not quite the 2%+ day around this time last August but not complaining. Let’s hope it is not readjusted down Monday. Most likely repricing of some illiquid holdings similar to what occurred last month in another fund that is heavy in non agencies. A call to the company Monday might shed more light. One of their managers, Brian Loo, has always been very helpful in the past. I just wish they would close this fund.
Sweet. Thanks Shiv. Hi Junkster. Please share any insight from Brian. When I queried briefly a couple months ago, Tom Miner insisted they keep finding good opportunities. Certainly, their performance has not suffered, especially when compared to PIMIX. So, he seems to be right ... just hopeful they don't themselves fall victim to asset gathering, a great seductress. Last time I checked, Jerry Szilagyi appeared to make more fee off each dollar of AUM than the Garrison Point team. Hope all is well. c
btw ... i exited ge this week after it dropped below my purchase price of around $12.7 ... had jumped quickly on announcement of selling off oil and health sectors ... but then repeated its decline. extraordinary reversal of fortune for this once great company. not sure if current leadership inspires enough confidence in employees and investors to escape selling off the company wholesale. c
Charles, since March of 2017 been between 40% and 100% IOFIX. Wish I could lie and say I was near 100% going into today but only 55%. Another 30% in DPFNX another bond fund that doesn’t seem to get enough respect for its steady performance. Will add to IOFIX when it has another one of those two day declines or more of where it drops a total of .40% or more. It has had a few this year. They usually appear around the last week of the month every few months or so.
Edit: Because I am a big believer in full disclosure, there were a couple periods beginning the end of December where I was completely out of IOFIX. There were better opportunities the first quarter in other bond funds. Albeit, this year it really hasn’t paid trying to outsmart IOFIX.
@Junkster The regular 0.40% monthly decline of IOFUX (in the last two days of each month) corresponds to the associated monthly distributions.
I understand about the price adjustment when the monthly dividends are paid. I am referring to the negative price action each quarter beginning 11/27 and 11/28. 2/26 and 2/27 and 5/25 and 5/29. If this pattern continues there should be a similar pattern near the end of this month. This is the reverse of most of last year where each quarter or so there were inexplicable daily price jumps the largest being over 2% last August. This involved the repricing of their portfolio by a reporting agency. I would just as soon not see a decline this month and maybe yesterday.’s price action is simply a return of what occurred last year each quarter.
I have considered DPFNX, but will look closer. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable about the advisor in 2017, which was not helped when I saw this earlier this year ...
@Charles & Junkster - may I ask why you two don't deal with ETF's or CEF's for your bond funds rather than mutual funds? Is it fund composition, manager expertise, force of habit or just what? I'd especially like to hear from Junkster because I seem to recall that he trades in and out of positions fairly regularly. Thank you.
IOFIX, 3 year chart. In many years of charts, I've not seen this relative to the top portion of the chart for RSI. This fund has generally maintained an above 70 RSI (daily or weekly chart) and is currently at 93.5. Above 70, for the technical aspect, is a "watch this", as this investment has entered an "overbought" area. To maintain in the 80-90 range is very unusual. Most technical folks would be yelling, sell. One may also see the price spikes near the end of calendar months as noted by @Junkster, including a most similar pattern from August of 1 year ago. @Junkster , have you an opinion as to whether the technical aspect is worth regard. @Tony , if you still receive notifications from MFO; take a look and please offer your technical view opinion.
This link provides a basic description of ABS, relative to some IOFIX exposure. To the right edge of the page is a list of defined aspects of ABS. Asset backed securities
Whatever management has figured out at this time in the investment area(s) is surely working.
Hi Mark. Yes, I'd like to get Junkster's position here as well. In my case, I'd rather avoid dealing with spreads and limit trades, if possible. And, I take comfort in expecting that traditionally (I know there can be exceptions, but so far I consider them extreme) a mutual fund exchanges precisely at the closing NAV, especially on a heavy transaction that can be particularly sensitive to trade volume. The downside, particularly if you're trading on trend, you're forced to live with the position a-whole-nother day once it crosses a trade threshold. May not sound like a lot, but it was during the financial crisis even for "tight-channel" funds like PIMIX. c
Mark, because more often than not I have my entire nest egg at risk in one or two bond funds, Back in the days It was the same way when I traded open end equity sector funds. At this point in my life though I can’t handle the volatility associated with bond CEFs and ETFs. A 1% drawdown in my nest egg is a big deal to me and represents more than a half year of living expenses. There is also a one day lag at times between the action in the ETFs late in the trading day when major adverse/favorable news hits the markets. I can use that to my advantage if necessary as the NAV of the open end bond funds aren’t normally affected until the next day. December 16, 2008 comes to mind of such a day and one I will never forget.
catch, I am an agnostic on most traditional technical indicators especially when it comes to bond funds. There is one though I monitor real closely and use for entries but not exits though. But that is a story for another time.
Edit: Actually the major reason I don’t fool with CEFs and ETFs is it prevents me from making bonehead intraday trading moves in my positions. No exaggeration, I would estimate my retirement nest egg would be half of its present value had I been allowed to react to intraday trading news during the trading day. In other words, the open end funds force discipline upon me. Admittedly an odd statement coming from someone who originally daytraded stock index futures which became the building block for my nest egg in the first place.
Impressive performance for 3y, but I might be jittery going forward about a fund comprising "securities backed by credit card receivables, automobiles, aircraft, student loans, and agency and nonagency residential and commercial mortgages ... also ... corporate debt securities".
Impressive performance for 3y, but I might be jittery going forward about a fund comprising "securities backed by credit card receivables, automobiles, aircraft, student loans, and agency and nonagency residential and commercial mortgages ... also ... corporate debt securities".
Altho the AUM's climbing, the trade's not going to last forever, and IOFIX lives in the junkier end of it, it's still primarily a legacy RMBS fund, the debt trade of the decade; see p. 2 of this fact sheet.
The credit card, student loan, auto etc. debt makes up 0.5% of the portfolio. No reason to be complacent, but the non-mortgage ABS stake won't likely be a reason to worry about it for a while, anyway.
Yer welcome, David. Pimco might take a while to make an offer; I think they're pretty busy answering investor questions about what they're doing renaming and reorienting several of their in-house OEFs.
Spoke with fund manager Brian Loo today. Friday’s out of the ordinary move did not come from any specific event or the repricing of any illiquid bonds. But simply a broad based move up in a large number of positions. I feel more confident in the strategy of IOFIX and how it will play out in the coming years. Brian is really a nice and down to earth guy and I have enjoyed my conversations with him since IOFIX came to my attention last year.
There's a new (to me, anyway) fund "presentation," as the IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of purchase price to par on p. 16 of the IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
Great discussion. However, I am now puzzled by how IOFIX portfolio increased in value by almost 1% in one day, given that it "did not come from any specific event or the repricing of any illiquid bonds". Thanks
There's a new (to me, anyway) fund "presentation," as the IOFIX guys call it, up on the site, dated July. Just about everything you ever wanted to know about it, all there in living color ...
Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of purchase price to par on p. 16 of the IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
Thanks Andy. The crew at Garrison Point Capital have always been very detailed in their presentations. As you allude to, a wealth of information. Above is a link that I don’t believe has been previously posted here on their strategy. I thought Charles had a more thorough analysis. But what I like about this one is the analogy with the old geezer and his bankrupt railroad bonds and the discounted legacy non agencies IOFIX specializes in. Yes, I know, comparing apples to oranges but you get the drift.
@Junkster: While I have your attention. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say some time back, that if the S&P 500 hit 3,000 by year end, you would roll a peanut down Walls Street with you nose. Guess what, get ready to roll ! Regards, Ted
@Junkster: While I have your attention. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you say some time back, that if the S&P 500 hit 3,000 by year end, you would roll a peanut down Walls Street with you nose. Guess what, get ready to roll ! Regards, Ted
Ha ha, no, but I did say I would bow down to you from afar.
Comments
Edit: Because I am a big believer in full disclosure, there were a couple periods beginning the end of December where I was completely out of IOFIX. There were better opportunities the first quarter in other bond funds. Albeit, this year it really hasn’t paid trying to outsmart IOFIX.
The regular 0.40% monthly decline of IOFUX (in the last two days of each month) corresponds to the associated monthly distributions.
I have considered DPFNX, but will look closer. I remember feeling a bit uncomfortable about the advisor in 2017, which was not helped when I saw this earlier this year ...
Deer Park SEC Probe
Here's side-by-side comparison of IOFIX and DPFNX this past year (99 peers):
Risk & Return Metrics ...
And looking back 3 years:
Period Performance ...
Batting Averages ...
Latest IOFIX presentation from Garrison Point shop ...
http://alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
Latest DPFNX presentation and commentary ...
http://www.deerparkfund.com/PDFs/DPR_Overview_Pres_Q2_2018.pdf
http://www.deerparkfund.com/PDFs/Deer_Park_Commentary_Q2_2018.pdf
IOFIX, 3 year chart.
In many years of charts, I've not seen this relative to the top portion of the chart for RSI. This fund has generally maintained an above 70 RSI (daily or weekly chart) and is currently at 93.5. Above 70, for the technical aspect, is a "watch this", as this investment has entered an "overbought" area. To maintain in the 80-90 range is very unusual. Most technical folks would be yelling, sell. One may also see the price spikes near the end of calendar months as noted by @Junkster, including a most similar pattern from August of 1 year ago.
@Junkster , have you an opinion as to whether the technical aspect is worth regard.
@Tony , if you still receive notifications from MFO; take a look and please offer your technical view opinion.
This link provides a basic description of ABS, relative to some IOFIX exposure. To the right edge of the page is a list of defined aspects of ABS.
Asset backed securities
Whatever management has figured out at this time in the investment area(s) is surely working.
Regards,
Catch
catch, I am an agnostic on most traditional technical indicators especially when it comes to bond funds. There is one though I monitor real closely and use for entries but not exits though. But that is a story for another time.
Edit: Actually the major reason I don’t fool with CEFs and ETFs is it prevents me from making bonehead intraday trading moves in my positions. No exaggeration, I would estimate my retirement nest egg would be half of its present value had I been allowed to react to intraday trading news during the trading day. In other words, the open end funds force discipline upon me. Admittedly an odd statement coming from someone who originally daytraded stock index futures which became the building block for my nest egg in the first place.
@Junkster,
>> A 1% drawdown in my nest egg is a big deal to me and represents more than a half year of living expenses
Inferring from this that steadiness and maintenance are more important than volatile growth, have you ever looked at GABCX?
The credit card, student loan, auto etc. debt makes up 0.5% of the portfolio. No reason to be complacent, but the non-mortgage ABS stake won't likely be a reason to worry about it for a while, anyway.
maybe they will get taken over by Pimco
Here's a tidbit I'd forgotten: the holdings are almost entirely floating rate (95% in this report).
The one thing I can't find is the current price to par of the holdings (M*'s 68.31 is at least five months stale, and my default position these days is not to trust any M* data without some sort of corroboration). There's a nice graph of purchase price to par on p. 16 of the IOFIX presentation, the average being 67.50, which imho is still pretty decent considering the AUM runup.
P.S. Good info on the manager call, Junkster.
However, I am now puzzled by how IOFIX portfolio increased in value by almost 1% in one day, given that it "did not come from any specific event or the repricing of any illiquid bonds".
Thanks
Thanks Andy. The crew at Garrison Point Capital have always been very detailed in their presentations. As you allude to, a wealth of information. Above is a link that I don’t believe has been previously posted here on their strategy. I thought Charles had a more thorough analysis. But what I like about this one is the analogy with the old geezer and his bankrupt railroad bonds and the discounted legacy non agencies IOFIX specializes in. Yes, I know, comparing apples to oranges but you get the drift.
By the way, here is the analysis by Charles
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/lightning-in-a-bottle-alphacentric-income-opportunities-fund-iofix-february-2018/
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted