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Morningstar's Analysis of China Trade Scenarios

edited May 2019 in Off-Topic
M*'s take on the likelihood of several outcomes for the current trade dispute, complete with discussion. My hunch is that a blending of the Face-Saving Settlement and the Major Concessions Scenario will prevail...

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https://morningstar.com/articles/928411/morningstars-analysis-of-china-trade-scenarios.html

Comments

  • Thank you for the detailed article that is unusual for Morningstar. Anther article from Washington Post provides their analysis on the possible outcome. A short summary is provided below since the article is a subscription-based.
    1. Trump gets a “good deal.” Shrinking of trading deficit somewhat, selling more agriculture products, and some forms of intellectual property protection (previous attempts failed through WTO and this is difficult to enforce with Chinese courts).

    2. No deal is reached. A full-blown trade war ensues. A low probability but can hurt both sides.

    3. Trump gets a lousy deal and many tariffs stay. This is already put on the table, but US will not gain greater access to Chinese market.
  • Just what does Chia have that we need?
    We need to bring back a lot of manufacturing jobs and products that have been pirated by the commies. Just as a start You can't buy a decent hand tool that is made in the states any more.
    I'm glad someone finally woke up and maybe the US will get some relief from what has been broke off in us by previous administrations!!
  • Hi JohnN,
    Yeah, I'm buying FHKCX this week and next and on further weakness. Why, longneck wisdom says...."when ashes fall, legends rise." It's time to buy when the chickens hide.
    God bless
    the Pudd

    p.s. Think 10 years out and this time......you will not remember.
  • No thanks. That is a repeat of last fall 2018, except this can last a bit longer with a possible double digit drop.
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