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While you weren't looking the trade war with China went completely off the rails

davfordavfor
edited November 2019 in Off-Topic
Time will tell but this sounds like where we may wind up as an election year approaches....
America's trade war with China has lost its way. Instead of pushing for structural change in China's managed economy, the Trump administration is currently negotiating to get US-China trade where it was before the war started. This story is starting to sound like a loop, and it's unclear how the Trump administration will get out of it.

Douglas Irwin, an economic historian at Dartmouth compared what the Trump administration is doing with trade war now to what the US did after it lost the War of 1812 to the British. When the war started, Americans claimed they would take territory from Canada, by the time the war ended in defeat Americans were reduced to touting the fact that they hadn't lost any territory.
https://insider.com/trump-trade-war-us-china-tariffs-lost-no-meaning-2019-11

Comments

  • MarkMark
    Assuming that it goes this route it will be interesting to see who will be blamed for the the reversal. I know who won't be admitting any responsibility.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    It's not just trade wars. The entire United States is completely off the rails.
  • catch22catch22
    edited November 2019
    I do believe China can play the waiting game and trade with whomever in the mean time, whether they have shortages of some product right now or not. Their Belt and Road project has their fingers in many global pieces of the "pie". @Old_Joe would be in agreement with this, I do believe.
    I/we/this country may be engaged in being screwed without the pleasure of the climax for a very long time; as severe disruption in global "normal" channels are seriously injured from the D.C. area of the country.
  • hank
    edited November 2019
    But the stock market goes higher and higher with each new trade rumor.:)

    Bill Fleckenstein put it this way Friday: “I'm sure this will come as a surprise to no one when I say that optimism over a ‘potential’ trade deal boosted the market through midday, this time to the tune of a little more than 0.5% (with the major averages hitting new all-time highs) .... I know I don't need to point out to anyone with a pulse that there have been no deals, and the potential deal continues to be smaller and smaller. Nonetheless, the stock market has a Pavlovian response to every single rumor that has a positive outcome ...”

    (Excerpt from commentary published November 15, 2019) https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/home.aspx
  • kings53man
    Sorry, it's not a rumor - Larry Kudlow told on Friday - We're getting close. The market is manipulated by DT officials - one day trade war on track and the other day it is not.
  • rforno
    Old_Joe said:

    It's not just trade wars. The entire United States is completely off the rails.

    +1

    I still harbor suspicion that Tweety Amin, showman that he is, will do something -- even cave and claim 'victory' -- on the trade war sometime in 2020 just to make a desperate case for re-electing him for his 'expert' prowess in negotiations.

  • MarkMark
    That's for sure @rforno. As long as your brokerage account is larger everything is just peachy.
  • johnNjohnN
    edited November 2019
    I suspect we will sign deals months before Nov 2020
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