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Knowing what you now know, what would you do now?

I am sure there is has been a lot of evaluating of investment choices, but if you were to start fresh with this new knowledge, what would your fund choices be for both your growth and income side of your portfolio be regardless of your percentages? As some have suggested, you are building own allocation fund. Or would you just use a PRWCX VWINX?

Comments

  • PRWCX PTIAX. Juicier monthlies, even in a falling market. I prefer monthly, rather than quarterly payments, anyhow. Retired, 65, more conservative, these days. But for overseas bonds, if someone should be interested: MAINX is doing RELATIVELY well, down -9.74 tonight. That compares with my RPSIX, which is a TRP fund of funds, and it owns a slice of equities, too: RPSIX is down YTD by -9.51%. PTIAX, still, is down YTD by only a FRACTION tonight.
  • Thank you for the input.
  • O
    Howdy folks,

    Is this a trick question? Just asking.

    The answer (for those still in school) is Nothing.

    There is no way you can react or adjust to an unknown unknowable. This is the penultimate black swan event. The only way to deal with it is to be properly allocated with reasonable goals and objectives - at all times.

    and so it goes,

    Peace and Flatten the Curve.

    Rono
  • Knowing what I know now I would have sold most things in my taxable account in February and at that time moved into a money market fund all equities in my tax sheltered account. At this time I would maintain my anti virus plan which is to not sell but only buy on good health news not market levels
  • edited March 18
    Nothing different. I sold a few things in mid-Feb that had gone up to what i thought were nosebleed levels, and then was able to buy them back in recent days at prices lower than what I paid for them originally. At the risk of sounding like I'm gloating, looking @ their charts, I sold them literally the day before the markets began to roll ... so great timing, I guess.

    I've had a large cash pile for years sitting next to my equity-centric portfolios, so I'm VERY happy to be putting it all to work into equities now that they're coming down so sharply. Some of the stuff I just bought is down 10-15% already but I'm not worrying since they're solid (and mostly) 'value' companies.
  • edited March 18
    @rono has it correct, as usual.

    Here’s from one pundit I follow:

    “... other than to say there's going to be massive stimulus coming and we're going to have a lot of pain, it's very hard for me to come up with any kind of cogent plan for the near term that I would have any confidence in.”

    Bill Fleckenstein, March 17, 2020 https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/dailyrap.aspx?rapdate=03-17-2020 (subscription required)
  • edited March 18
    rforno said:

    Nothing different. I sold a few things in mid-Feb that had gone up to what i thought were nosebleed levels, and then was able to buy them back in recent days at prices lower than what I paid for them originally. At the risk of sounding like I'm gloating, looking @ their charts, I sold them literally the day before the markets began to roll ... so great timing, I guess.

    I've had a large cash pile for years sitting next to my equity-centric portfolios, so I'm VERY happy to be putting it all to work into equities now that they're coming down so sharply. Some of the stuff I just bought is down 10-15% already but I'm not worrying since they're solid (and mostly) 'value' companies.

    Yuppers - That’s pretty much been my understanding of how it’s supposed to be done - exception perhaps for the very young with 25-50 year time horizons. But those folks should be out golfing or fishing. I’m getting hammered - but currently no worse that my long held benchmark - TRRIX. So there’s some solace in that my risk going in seems to have been appropriate for me / commensurate with what that very conservative fund takes.

    I’ve never held more than 20% cash. Just 15% going into this. A lot of that has already been put to work. But still have another 50% residing in global bond funds and alternative funds. Those have lost only a few percent compared to equities and may end up being deployed in coming months should the markets fall another 10-50%. I don’t think it will fall another 50% - just saying I’d still have some remaining funds to (heave, throw, pitch) at it if it should.:)


  • Like Dr. Fauci said "the worse has yet to come", i.e. the market still has a way to go before bottoming out. In the meantime this is like catching falling knives. Each passing day the economic situation worsen as the reported COVID-19 cases still climbing. We are conservative investors and will be patient for better opportunities ahead.
  • Sven +1
  • I continue to learn no matter how long I invest and now is no different.

    If I were to look back in hind-sight, I made a mistake early in January and February putting cash to work in bond funds as my CDs were maturing. I saw MM and CD rates going down and thought I could make more return, with slightly more risk, by buying fixed income funds. Munis in particular. I think I was swayed by the 2 extensive bond threads that everyone was commenting on. But that's my bad.

    In any case, I now admit that was a mistake to add risk when I didn't really need to. Greedy.
  • @ MikeM (DITTO) Hopefully this will to work out in the long turn.
    Derf
  • My biggest mistake was in thinking that certain sectors would perform and/or hold up better if this scenario unfolded. Boy was I wrong. Next time I'll be more inclined to sell nearly everything although holding nothing but cash is so anti-intuitive to me.
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