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Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life

“There have been four great buying opportunities in my adult lifetime. The first was in 1973 and ’74, the second was in 1982, the third was in 1987 and the fourth was in 2008 and 2009. And this is the fifth one,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/investor-bill-miller-one-of-the-best-buying-opportunities-of-his-life.html

Comments

  • edited March 19
    Any chance Dows reach< 10k levels? We are almost halfway there
  • Hope not. We should just go back to normal and risk 2% fatality rate, or whatever it is. The solution might be worse than the problem.
  • Approx US population, December 2019: 330,149,796 (Wickipedia)

    Projected infection rate, if let run without intervention: approx 80% = 264,000,000

    Fatality rate of 2% = approx 5,000,000

    Quite a writeoff that you're comfortable with.
  • Bill gets to say that. Like the government he's shopping with other peoples money.
  • edited March 19
    Well I was just throwing out a number....Those are not going to be the numbers. Many people have it who will never show up in ICU or even get tested. All or mostly all who die from it will be measured. Overall percentage is therefore much lower. 99% of fatalities in Italy are over 80 and have more than two serious medical conditions. I have seen 2.3-2.7...
    My point is how far do we go to save this group? $3T? $5T in hole? More?
    Many of these people would be done in by any number of illnesses, or a stiff wind.
  • edited March 19
    Good thinking! This useless cohort could be converted into Soylent Green and used to help feed the homeless. Oh- wait... there's another useless cohort. We could convert them also into Soylent Green and feed chickens, and then... how about everybody on food stamps? They are a pretty marginal bunch too.

    Give me a minute to think about this. It seems to have real potential. I'll bet that Koch Industries could really make a mint on this.
  • edited March 19
    coronavirus deaths < 200. Flu deaths between 22K to 55 = about 35-40,000. Corona is 10 times more deadly but we still have fewer deaths. Sure, we need to do all we do and be informed.

    So far the SP500 fell about 30% from its top. When to buy your first bucket? You got to use charts because it’s mechanical and many algos use it. I looked for several indicators that work for me and I used several but it’s too complicated. For Stocks: based on 2008 (which resembles 2020) the easiest is 100 moving average (Again, R48). 50+200 MA are the most used but 50 is too fast but 200 is too slow. MACD and looking at trends may confuse some/many. For CEF: use weekly MACD. For bond OEFs: use a simple chart trend. See below

    Stocks: SP500 (chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, you this (link)

    CEFs: PCI(chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive

    Bond OEFs: PIMIX (chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
  • It should be noted that a Bill Miller’s Legg Mason Fund lost 2/3rds of its value by the end of 2008. His investors fled the fund. It may have been a lifetime investment opportunity for Bill, but he destroyed a lot of his investors’ wealth.
  • If we have no social distancing or other preventative measures then at leaset 80% of everyone in the US will indeed contact the virus.

    The 5 million people will not all be grannies. Mortality rate in Kirkland nursing home is 30% 2.5 million folks times 80% times 30% mortality so 600,000 grannies gone

    over 65 there are 49 million Americans ( minus the 5 million in Nursing Homes)

    45 times 80% 3,600,000 infected 8% (mortality in China) so 300,000 baby boomers dead

    Today we heard that 20% of 20 to 44 yo with Corona have been been hospitalized and 5% in ICU

    so 88 million with 70 million infected 20% 14 million hospitalizations with 3.5 million ICU admissions

    ( US has 540,000 regular hospital beds and about 100,000 ICU beds)

    I doubt if these dead or hospitalized people will be available to support the economy

    Who knows what what the mortality rate will be in prisons??

    In china mortality was controlled because they controlled infections and spread of the virus. If we don't we are toast until a vaccine is available.
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