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the fact that I hold individual muni bonds that make up 33% of my portfolio. It sure was a stabilizer. But if market goes down again tomorrow, I will be adding to equities.
Slightly hedged, but it didn't make up for losses. Not a real follower of technical analysis (nothing against it, but the way the market is, rumors and BS can continually invalidate patterns), but I am going to keep an eye on what would appear to be a break in the uptrend on a few indexes, including the Russell 2000 and S & P 500, and seeing if that break of trend continues before deciding whether or not to add further.
I wouldn't be so quick to add to equities. But, that's your call. My gold fund (just a percent or so of total) had a bounce of +1.5%. Probably just a dead-cat bounce. But we'll see where it goes from here. I believe bonds are in a longer bear trend now. But, nothing moves in a straight line and today was their day. HSGFX (follow but don't own) had nice bump up today. But, still off over 10% on year-over-year basis.
I think there's much validity to technical analysis. Just don't happen to follow it. I suspect it's one good way to decipher market sentiment - always important whether you follow tech analysis or not.
Reply to @Old_Joe: Good to hear. A few splashes of green is always nice. (-: I also keep an eye on PONDX and some of the other HY stuff. Cuz - It's all inter-related in some bizarre fashion.
Yesterday was the markets blowing off a little of the overbought condition and was triggered by the news from my thinking. A lot of uncertainty exists now. So look for the news to drive and trigger the markets.
The down draft in my portfolio was much in line with my thinking as to where its value would compute before I even onened my spread sheet that I follow. Down about half of what the S&P 500 Index was. Actually, I too had some funds that were in the green today.
And, here is some more of my thinking. The trailing earnings on the S&P 500 Index is at about $100.00 range and with a P/E Ratio factor of 14 then this puts the Index at about 1400 low range. It is felt, by some, me included, that the trailing earnings for the Index will come in around $105.00 range for 2013. So, if I use the same P/E multiple of 14 an estimated low range value on the Index can be computed and by my math this is about 1470. Keep in mind this is estimated trailing earnings for 2013. And, we are not far from that number now at 1488. I don't have a lot of faith in the forward earings eatimates of about $113.00 that I heard of some using sticking. I am not utilizing forward earnings estimates at this time which would be a top down valuation look. I think a better way to look and view this is from a bottom up approach.
So with this, I am going to hold off from doing any buying until I see my set up formation develop from both my trailing earnings perspective and the technical’s that I follow. And, I still feel some more "bad news" is coming that will influence prices in the markets.
We are getting close … but, I don’t feel we are quite there yet for me to move some of my cash ballast to equity ballast.
In addition, Morningstar's Fair Value Graph is linked below ... and, it currently reflects that the market, in general, is price at a little under fair value.
Way, way, way too many funds for me. Sold MSCFX, HFMDX today (too volatile for my tastes) while increasing in GASFX which is my kind of fund. Still too overweight in PONDX at now around 75% but such a great retirement anchor.
OYEIX up 1.39% SMGIX up 1.40% VPCCX up 1.45% FBTIX up 1.55%
even my muni bonds went up today:) I sold FDGFX , I had too many similar funds, put the proceeds into VIG and OYEIX (I can't add to any of my Vanguard funds at ML, but VIG similar to my VDIGX).
Comments
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21876688241
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06780032430
I think there's much validity to technical analysis. Just don't happen to follow it. I suspect it's one good way to decipher market sentiment - always important whether you follow tech analysis or not.
David
I also keep an eye on PONDX and some of the other HY stuff. Cuz - It's all inter-related in some bizarre fashion.
Yesterday was the markets blowing off a little of the overbought condition and was triggered by the news from my thinking. A lot of uncertainty exists now. So look for the news to drive and trigger the markets.
The down draft in my portfolio was much in line with my thinking as to where its value would compute before I even onened my spread sheet that I follow. Down about half of what the S&P 500 Index was. Actually, I too had some funds that were in the green today.
And, here is some more of my thinking. The trailing earnings on the S&P 500 Index is at about $100.00 range and with a P/E Ratio factor of 14 then this puts the Index at about 1400 low range. It is felt, by some, me included, that the trailing earnings for the Index will come in around $105.00 range for 2013. So, if I use the same P/E multiple of 14 an estimated low range value on the Index can be computed and by my math this is about 1470. Keep in mind this is estimated trailing earnings for 2013. And, we are not far from that number now at 1488. I don't have a lot of faith in the forward earings eatimates of about $113.00 that I heard of some using sticking. I am not utilizing forward earnings estimates at this time which would be a top down valuation look. I think a better way to look and view this is from a bottom up approach.
So with this, I am going to hold off from doing any buying until I see my set up formation develop from both my trailing earnings perspective and the technical’s that I follow. And, I still feel some more "bad news" is coming that will influence prices in the markets.
We are getting close … but, I don’t feel we are quite there yet for me to move some of my cash ballast to equity ballast.
In addition, Morningstar's Fair Value Graph is linked below ... and, it currently reflects that the market, in general, is price at a little under fair value.
http://wwwstg.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Skeeter
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
SPY up 1.26%
IJH up 1.43%
PRHSX up 1.26%
PONCX up 0.8%
PFF up .07%
GASFX FBR Fund Advisors = up 1.24%
Some days are up. Some days are down. That's life.
WSBEX = 1.68%
SMVLX = 1.48%
GASFX = 1.24%
MSCFX = 1.21%
WAFMX = 0.36%
PONDX = 0.08%
Way, way, way too many funds for me. Sold MSCFX, HFMDX today (too volatile for my tastes) while increasing in GASFX which is my kind of fund. Still too overweight in PONDX at now around 75% but such a great retirement anchor.
"Investing is a marathon not a sprint."
SMGIX up 1.40%
VPCCX up 1.45%
FBTIX up 1.55%
even my muni bonds went up today:) I sold FDGFX , I had too many similar funds, put the proceeds into VIG and OYEIX (I can't add to any of my Vanguard funds at ML, but VIG similar to my VDIGX).