Know Your Risk During Covid-19: On a Scale of 1 to 10, How Risky Is.....

davfor

The Texas Medical Association has released a chart explaining which behaviors put you at risk of getting the new coronavirus.

One is low, ten is high on this scale....



https://twitter.com/texmed

Sven

Thank you. Saw that too earlier. One picture worthy a thousand words.

Many large hospitals are at full capacities with their ICUs. Let's hope they have learned how New York found better treatment and medications beyond ventilator in order to reduce their fatality rates.

MikeM

I don't know, but I'm going to assume the risk metric is based on no one wearing a mask. They should have a second column with risk score if all parties are masked, just for comparison.

Old_Joe

Really good comment, @MikeM.

zenbrew

It assumes they are wearing masks.

From the Texas Medical Association website:

The chart was prepared by theTMA COVID-19 Task Force and the TMA Committee on Infectious Diseases. Please assume that participants in these activities are following currently recommended safety protocols when possible.

(bold emphasis mine)

Interesting & equally concerning is what it doesn't cover: risk assessment for the employees working at any of these places (except "Working a week in an office building").

MikeM

Please assume that participants in
these activities are following currently
recommended safety protocols when
possible

@zenbrew, you are probably right, but still not clear to me if they mean scientific protocols that doctors have known since early on or the Texas' political leaders interpretation of science. Texas only started telling people to wear masks on July 3rd, more than 3 months after NY for example.

In any case, interesting chart.

zenbrew

Good point.

I would still assume the former. Most medical associations have been against some of the more reckless political policies enacted. While I have seen some pretty stupid posts by individual physicians at different medical forums, I'm not aware of state associations positioning that way. Though as I say that, this chart leaves off the risk for all of the workers that have to return to these work places. Seems like that would be kind of important. That omission is most probably political.

rono

Howdy folks

It's All on the margin people. Dammit, we really don't have time for the Pelikan bs.

It's all 'in relation ' to each other and other metrics.

Folks, I want to go to my favorite watering hole and have a couple of cocktail la.

And it's the worst place to go.

R

rforno

Mid-40s here, and even though I had a mild (suspected) case back in early April, I'm still only going out for groceries, walks/runs, doctors, and the occasional home improvement supply trip. :/

On a side note, another Covid Risk chart, to give you something to think about this morning...and maybe elicit a chuckle or guffaw as well.

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/covid_risk_chart_2x.png

zenbrew

The Front Line: Visualizing the Occupations with the Highest COVID-19 Risk

OSHA Worker Exposure Risk to COVID-19

Old_Joe

@rforno- Thanx- That's great!

My two favorites are "Setting off fireworks in a stranger's car" and "Racing a scooter through a hospital with a mask over your eyes".

Monty Python would approve.

rforno

Thanks! Though I'm glad I quit my job at the Ministry of Funny Coughs back in April.....

Old_Joe said:

Monty Python would approve.

Derf

Thanks for the link @zenbrew. Can anyone answer this question ? If someone is in the 95% tile, what is the possibility of getting covid-19 ?

Not that mathematical, Derf

zenbrew

@Derf
95th percentile of what? I'm not aware of covid-19 risk being expressed in percentiles.

FWIW, this explains the difference between percentages & percentiles from DifferenceBetween.net

A percentage is a number that is written out of a total of 100. It is an individual value that is indicated with the percent sign, so x %.
Percentile is a value that is based on a comparison with other values along a normal distribution curve and is indicated as xth.

I like this interactive risk calculator from Mathematica because it includes factors such as where you live, medical conditions, others in the household, & behaviors (which can be modified). But no calculator results are absolute.

19 and Me: COVID-19 Risk Score Calculator

davfor

.

Old_Joe

@zenbrew- The chart on your link "The Front Line: Visualizing the Occupations with the Highest COVID-19 Risk" expresses the potential for exposure of various occupational categories as a percentage. I think that Derf might be looking for some clarification on that.

Thanks- OJ

Derf

Thanks @Old_Joe; Instead of using age groups to find death rate, use occupation. I guess the closer one works to another person the greater the chance of getting covid-19.

Thanks All, Derf

zenbrew

In the chart "The Front Line: Visualizing the Occupations with the Highest COVID-19 Risk", they use a numerical scale to measure least to highest risk occupations. Not a percentile. And these are relative numbers not absolutes. They don't assign precise numbers for low, medium, & high risk but they do show the 3 factors that are used to rate them: 1) Contact with others (How much does this job require the worker to be in contact with others in order to perform it?), 2) Physical proximity (To what extent does this job require the worker to perform tasks in close physical proximity to others?), & 3) Exposure to disease & infection (How often does this job require exposure to hazardous conditions?). The website does refer to income percentiles to illustrate which percentage of each potentially can work at home. It's sobering to see (at least according to their data) that 71% of the people in the lowest 50th percentile of income don't have a choice to work from home. As they point out:

At a time when many Americans worry about paying their bills, the effects of this inequality can be particularly harsh on those near the bottom of the income spectrum. If unable to work from home, these individuals will likely face increased health risks on top of their existing financial difficulties.

Older age is definitely a factor (as far as we know now) but an 80 year old staying at home & another 80 year old hanging out in a bar will have a different percent risk of getting Covid-19. I would expect death rates in general to come down at any age as treatments become better. However, morbidity, especially long-term, is still to be determined.

That's why I like "COVID-19 Risk Score Calculator", because you can factor multiple variables to assess risk & even change some of those variables to see what happens. It would be good if they added another variable which asked whether others you are around when out of the house are adhering to the safety guidelines outlined or not as well.

Old_Joe

@zenbrew- Thanks for the clarification. Math is certainly not my high point either, and the 0/100 scale suggested a percentile scale.

msf

zenbrew said:

In the chart "The Front Line: Visualizing the Occupations with the Highest COVID-19 Risk", they use a numerical scale to measure least to highest risk occupations. Not a percentile. And these are relative numbers not absolutes.

Not percentile of occupations, but percentage of risk. 100 being 100% possible risk (of all occupations) and 0 being 0% possible risk:
"Risk Score between 0 and 100, with 100 representing the highest possible risk."

It says that the "average risk score of the following 966 jobs is 30.2" Not the median. That's ascribing some significance to the numeric values that goes beyond "relative" (bigger or smaller).

The numbers have to have some quantitative meaning, because they're being used to normalize (make comparable) three different factors: "We assigned each attribute an equal weight, then aggregated them". That is, they scored each attribute, perhaps on the same 0 to 100 scale, then averaged. (Equivalently, they scored each attribute on a scale of 0 to 33⅓ and added.)

M* uses three factors in its performance (or risk) ratings: 3 year, 5 year, and 10 year figures. It weights them equally, but because each encompasses the previous one (the last five years includes the last three) it overweights more recent data. This is by design.

The factors used in the graphic here may have similar overlap: when one has contact with others, one is in close proximity to others which in turn is a way to be exposed to a potentially hazardous condition (albeit with less probability than being exposed to someone who is known to have tested positive).

It's a fun graphic that's moderately informative, but I wouldn't place much stock in quant analysts (2.9) being at more risk than economists (1.5). Or that working at math (mathematicians 4.3) is safer than working at applied statistics (actuaries 5.2) or statistics (statisticians 6.7).

Old_Joe

Thanks, @msf. That's exactly the way that I read it. It might have been been better if the scale had been simply "Less/More" or even 1/10. When other technicians would ask my opinion on something I would usually give my answer a "confidence rating" expressed as a percentage. The weather bureau does something similar with their "chance of rain" forecast.

zenbrew

@msf- Thanks for your comments. Maybe it's just semantics. Percentiles aren't percentages. A relative value can be significant in itself. The numerical value here is relative & as you point out "It's a fun graphic that's moderately informative, but I wouldn't place much stock in quant analysts (2.9) being at more risk than economists (1.5). Or that working at math (mathematicians 4.3) is safer than working at applied statistics (actuaries 5.2) or statistics (statisticians 6.7)." which I agree. I'm not sure why they bother to state the average risk score as they don't give a specific number range for low, medium, or high risk. But again, while this will tell someone the relative risk in a certain occupation vs another occupation, it won't tell someone their actual personal risk for themselves or for that matter, the actual risk within any one occupation.

If you're with another person being chased by a bear (and you've both decided to each fend for themselves), then it wouldn't actually matter how fast you could run (which percentile you ranked regarding speed, just that you could outrun the other person)- unless of course, there were two bears- then you would have to be faster than the bears- & good luck with that.

While there are several calculators for Covid risk out there, none are absolute in their values.

I'm not a statistician so maybe someone better qualified can add to this.

I'm used to working with percentiles regarding lab test results. For example using a bell shaped curve distribution where 97-99% of people that have a particular lab value (either above or below or within a certain range) either have or do not have a certain disease or are or are not adequately being treated. The tricky part comes when someone falls outside these numbers (in the 1-3% percentiles above or below) & clinically they are not where one would expect based on these numbers.

To me, information is important if it can potentially direct action- that wouldn't matter if it was medical, financial, investing, etc. It's real easy in the age of internet, to be information overloaded. And that's in the best of circumstances & data isn't being manipulated.

As Mark Twain has incorrectly been attributed to saying- "There are lies, damn lies, & statistics."

In medicine, for quite a long time, there has been a push for evidence-based medicine that one can actually use. And even these aren't absolute.
Two databases I look at are: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force & POEM (Patient-Oriented Evidence that Matters). It's not unusual for their findings to be either inconclusive or change over time as well. It's best evidence at the time.

One of the values of the real-time data coming out regarding Covid-19 is that it shows to the general population how imprecise medicine is & the process on how it evolves. Already the sickest patients are having better outcomes due to better treatments which is why we are perhaps seeing fewer deaths relative to the number of positive cases.

In any case, to me, the value of the occupation cart is the assessment of relative risk of different occupations & the income disparities related to these jobs & showing which people are going to need the most support through the crisis.