This might be a very strange post.
I had a new electrician over my house the other day. A real sharp guy with 50+ years of experience & a streak of the philosophical. My house which was built in the 1970s is a landmine of aluminum & copper wiring. Typically I handle most of the wiring myself but for this I needed a professional. I was mentioning that it was sort of like detective work trying to figure out where the short was when while standing on the ladder looking at the wiring issue, he turned to me & said "you know this might sound really weird but I do my best problem solving when I'm sleeping". I didn't think it was weird at all.
Which brings me to this post.
I really respect & appreciate someone like Old_Skeet's barometer postings which lays out a very robust systematic way of investing using numbers.
However, that's not how I roll even though I have at times tried. I've most likely left good money behind in the process but fortunately also avoided any major blow-ups along the way. I have tried to put as much on auto-pilot regarding finances as I can & have tried to idiot-proof the process along the way (to guard against my own bad decisions).
The encounter with the electrician (who is now my go-to electrician for me when needed) crystallized how I do approach investing as with most of my life. My best problem solving & subsequent decisions come to me while either on a walkabout (hike of some sort) or sleeping. Not very scientific but has worked out extremely well for me throughout my life. I have been out on my own since I was 16 & have done okay. I also have done either yoga or tai chi throughout my life which I find helps immensely in clearing my mind. The more I consciously think about investing, the worse decisions I generally make. I tried rule-based investing for stocks for a short time, but wasn't very successful. Yikes, I sold Amazon at $400.
I do try to stay stay informed & am not data-phobic. Information gathering (from a multitude of sources including here at MFO) is important & helps the unconscious processing.
This process also is helped if one does not carry a lot of expectation. One has to be okay with the unknown.
Why 'Sleeping on It' HelpsSo that's my strategy for investing.
Any thoughts or comments?
Comments
Yes I also like to sleep on it.
Stay safe, Derf
There is nothing wrong with sleeping on it. Most time with big decisions I think through for about three days as I have made impulse choices before that were just not the best.
Years back I would try to get too much out of a position just to see my profits vanish from a pullback. Then the question is do you sell the decline? Or, hold for an uptick? For me, I like to sell into strength. Generally, I aveage in with equity ballast (and, or spiffs) during market declines (not trying to pick a bottom) and then I average out when the rebound comes and sell into strength (not trying to pick the top to exit). With this, I have preplanned my entries and my exits with some flexability built in of course and my barometer is an aid in me doing this. Thus far, it has worked fairly well. Not perfect but well enough to coninue with it.
At the end of the day ... we have to govern as what works best for each of us.
With this ... however, you choose to invest ... I wish you success.
Old_Skeet
Typically a more elegant insight will come to me either as I fall asleep at night or as I wake up in the morning. Sometimes it takes a while, though.