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Howdy folks,

Well, hell is here to stay for a while so we might as well deal with it. By this point, I can't imagine that everyone has a least some cash on hand and is itching to get into the game. I am NOT buying but making a list of things to watch and perhaps nibble on if they go on sale. For those more adventurous, you can DCA. feh.

So, in all fairness, we're looking at a virtual economy for several years. Perhaps not until well into 2024. Many of the traditional face to face interactions of life are never coming back. All these attempts at reopening and face to face anything are one by one exploding. Oh, and the flu season is approaching and it's getting colder so folks are headed indoors. Really.

So. The shut down darlings are going to continue to be the winners. Amazon, Google, Netflix, Zoom. Rural real estate. Lumber and building supplies. Survival basic materials.

Same with the losers. The existing losers are going to continue to lose. Airlines, cruise lines, casinos, resorts, hotels, tourism, travel, shopping malls, urban office space, etc.

What else? What am I missing? What if everything shuts down this coming winter? If things really get bad? Geez, even in 1919 it was worse than 1918 and we're repeating history . . . or denying it. Regardless, winter looks rather bleak.

We did send in our passports to be renewed. Gaslight city!!!

and so it goes,

peace and wear the damn mask,

rono

Comments

  • edited September 15
    The Innovators > Tech > Alt Energy > Health > Utilities. In other words pretty much what I own now. In line with your winners above my son and I are exploring cabin properties.

    Edit: and I forgot AU + the miners
  • Wondering if buying some MJ ("Alternative Harvest ETF") makes any sense. Dispensaries seem to be busy and the market is continually expanding.
  • edited September 16
    fyi
    I am thinking of adding SNOW - new snowflake IPO debut today. could be next 'tesla or amazon google'. Buffet has bought bunch private preferred shares few days ago.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/snow
  • JD_co said:

    Wondering if buying some MJ ("Alternative Harvest ETF") makes any sense. Dispensaries seem to be busy and the market is continually expanding.

    @JD_co - MJ is incredibly speculative. The cannabis industry isn’t a national industry but is state by state therefore preventing economies of scale. While it’s difficult and expensive to get a dispensary license, anyone can grow the stuff at home if their state permits home grows, therefore the barriers to entry are kinda low.

    Cannabis ETF’s might perform better if cannabis were legal on a federal level but that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon just yet. I’ll continue to watch the cannabis space but I don’t see much of an investment opportunity in cannabis anytime soon.
  • "Snowflake SNOW, , the cloud software company backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B, 0.91%, goes public in a hotly demanded initial public offering. Snowflake priced its IPO at $120, after initially seeking as little as $75 per share. Also on the IPO front, Israeli software company JFrog priced its initial public offering at $44, above its $39 to $41 price range.

    Derf
  • edited September 16
    IMO SNOW is way overpriced and hyped due to the Berkshire involvement. Not interested!

    My equity shopping list includes: PING, RPRX, ABBV, CIBR, NSRGY, UTF, BMY, MPW, and a few others.

    My fund shopping list includes more PRBLX & PRWCX, possibly starter pos in TRBCX or BST, and Global Wellington.

    I'm hoping to put most of my idle cash to work significantly heading into the new year, but I'm buying opportunistically and not on any fixed timeframe.
  • edited September 16
    johnN said:

    fyi
    I am thinking of adding SNOW - new snowflake IPO debut today. could be next 'tesla or amazon google'. Buffet has bought bunch private preferred shares few days ago.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/snow

    Given what it does, I don't see the barriers to entry. Their product run on other companies' clouds. And those companies (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) could do what Snowflake does.
  • No contrarians? by the time it hits the NYT or Marketwatch, I have never made any money.

    I generally agree that this will go on a long time but I think there will be far better prices in the next few months. The market is priced for perfection and assumes 1) the Fed will keep pumping money in 2) there will be a perfectly effective vaccine by late fall and everyone will take it 3) things will return to normal next spring, and SP500 earnings with it 3) There will be a split Congress and the election results will be available soon after the election 4) no inflation

    Some of these are mutually exclusive or at least contrary to each other.

    When there is another 10 to 15% dip you will need to know if that is just the first shot of a long war. a lot of things may get much cheaper

    I think we are at least a year away from solving Covid and maybe longer. Look a the inability of most people to accept minor restrictions. A vaccine that is almost 100% effective is the only thing that will solve that. It will be difficult to determine that without vaccination millions and seeing who gets infected.

    If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.

  • edited September 16
    sma3 said:


    If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.

    This is not meant to spark a political discussion (please, folks - let's keep being good this week!) but my sense is that if Biden wins decisively, even if there's a short-term drop for some reason (ie regulatory fears - a legit concern under Dems) the 'markets' and companies will appreciate messaging stability from the White House and be glad to away from constantly living-in-fear of what stream-of-insanity tweeting might emerge from the White House at any hour of the day or night that could undermine their own business plans, models, or prices both when the market next opens or longer term.
  • edited September 16
    I’d be more inclined to sell rather than buy today. Haven’t yet set aside my anticipated 2021 distribution, which is my my preferred method. Normally, that $$, or a large portion would be parked in cash by now. That omission is mainly because I don’t know how much, if any, will be spent on travel next year. Without travel (and any big ticket items) the pension and SS are pretty much adequate. Of course, RMD will need to be taken in ‘21. But with close to 70% under a Roth, RMDs on the remaining aren’t too large.

    Remain a bit underweight on cash. What I look for for short term speculation are funds that appear well managed and invested in things that are badly beaten down and appear to have good upside potential. My math isn’t so great. But I’d think if you dumped $$ Into an equity fund that’s off 50% or more over the past year and it bounced to “only“ being down 25% in short order, you’d have pocketed a quick 25% gain - even though the fund is still underwater. I’m always on the lookout for such opportunities. Sparse pickings at present.

    I’m not seeing “dark shadows on the ceiling”, but do feel somewhat mesmerized by all that’s happening both politically and on the monetary end (Fed policy). Hard to get a solid bearing. But even without all that extraneous stuff going on, election years tend to favor equities. A motto of sort: “When in doubt, do nothing.“ So currently just a lot of sitting and looking. Where might someone go hunting if eager to buy? A lot of the foreign developed markets and EM have lagged the U.S. over the past decade.
  • edited September 16
    rforno said:

    sma3 said:


    If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank. the

    This is not meant to spark a political discussion (please, folks - let's keep being good this week!) but my sense is that if Biden wins decisively, even if there's a short-term drop for some reason (ie regulatory fears - a legit concern under Dems) the 'markets' and companies will appreciate messaging stability from the White House and be glad to away from constantly living-in-fear of what stream-of-insanity tweeting might emerge from the White House at any hour of the day or night that could undermine their own business plans, models, or prices both when the market next opens or longer term.
    Who would thought we’d even thinking about that a few years ago? Financially, there’s a lot of balls in motion right now. Too many to get one’s head around. Gold responds to geo-political uncertainty (typically rising) but also to lax budgetary policy and stimulative Fed policies. We seem to have all three. Great businesses will remain after the political stuff subsides, but the outlook for governance, trade policies, tax structure, etc. will be shaped depending on outcome.

    @MikeM might want to dust off that “deer in the headlights“ shot again.
  • @sma3

    >> if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.

    Can you elaborate on this a bit, please? I am interested in your thinking.
  • "stream-of-insanity tweeting"

    @rforno- Congratulations! You are the winner of this week's Alternative Fact® award! (Prize to be announced.)
  • Ok, @hank, done:) I may have to change back depending on how the Bills start the season.
  • rforno said:

    sma3 said:


    If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.

    This is not meant to spark a political discussion (please, folks - let's keep being good this week!) but my sense is that if Biden wins decisively, even if there's a short-term drop for some reason (ie regulatory fears - a legit concern under Dems) the 'markets' and companies will appreciate messaging stability from the White House and be glad to away from constantly living-in-fear of what stream-of-insanity tweeting might emerge from the White House at any hour of the day or night that could undermine their own business plans, models, or prices both when the market next opens or longer term.
    Even with Covid Trump has presided over an excellent stock market by almost any measure. I can't imagine things being materially better with Biden at the helm. It's about lower taxes and less regulation, not some imaginary "stability" and I don't seen Biden even providing comfort on that front between his own health and tugging from the left.
  • edited September 16
    MikeM said:

    Ok, @hank, done:) I may have to change back depending on how the Bills start the season.

    +1 @MikeM

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