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Time to sell or buy ?

I dialed down a few funds over the last 4 or 5 weeks & now looking to dial some value funds I bought at Vanguard , down. These were purchased in Nov. 2020. Thankfully they were in tax advantage account.

Are you in the sell, buy, or holding pattern ???

Stay Kool, Derf
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Comments

  • edited July 19
    There is nothing wrong to rebalance a bit after a run up like we had this year. Stocks are fully priced and bonds are not doing so great either. Having some cash is always good if we have a pullback in the second half of this year.

    For now I am holding still. Reviewed our portfolio carefully and believe we are better in positioning than that of last February. Earning reporting is here and let see how it fares.

    Remember, the Delta variants is rising rapidly across US, especially in regions with low vaccination rates. This triggers fear of the possibility of returning to Feb 2020 and we all know how that impact the economy. I think we are not out of the wood with COVID. The Olympic event is a good example what we are facing going forward.
  • edited July 19
    I have no compelling reason to make any moves out of the ordinary, but if I am doing anything, I'm looking to buy stuff if/when they go on-sale enough and/or as I deem opportune.

    A few more days like this and I'd definitely be leaning more towards buying mood.

    I wonder how many retail Robin Hooders are freaking out this morning seeing the markets rolling over so hard......
  • @Sven : I thing more than Covid is effecting Mr. Market. Instead of double bubble, More like a triple bubble !! Housing, equity, & Covid.

    Hope I'm wrong, Derf
  • beebee
    edited July 19
    Over the short term I have been impressed with two of my funds, PRWCX and FRIFX. While other funds in my portfolio are testing their 6 month lows these two funds have exhibited lower volatility and a steady price appreciation...little recent retreats.

    On a 1 year base, Other funds have performed very well but with much greater volatility. Remember volatility cuts both ways.

    A fund like POAGX has required a lot of recent patience. It has struggled to push higher through its inherit deviations. Falling harder than most of my funds once again.



  • edited July 19
    Hi @Sven et al

    Investment grade bonds have been clawing and scratching their way to positive returns over the past month or so; and have a big bump up (lower yields/higher pricing) so far today (July 19). The below link is for the etf AGG, and similar results show for various IG bonds.

    ***This is an active site page that you may save and use. Enter any valid symbol (top of page) to discover technical indicators. Additionally, the current quote/price is very close to real time values. I view, in particular, the 1 month, last week, yesterday (prior trade day) and current "red or green with % change). Strength and direction gauges also may provide useful information for current pricing. Plug in one of your symbols to discover what you see and know for a comparison of recent technical actions. YES, this is short term; but has provided clues for me, to possible arriving directions.

    Technical indicators

    I do not rely strictly upon technical indicators, but they reflect the actions of money/cash flows, IMHO.

    Part of the current and remaining fundamentals investing side is COVID and breakthrough COVID cases.
    A recent write here from the Chicago area (I accept that the information is accurate).
    And of course, still too many wild ones in Michigan testing their no-vacc immune systems, who are mingling among the many 1,000's who travel from the Chicago area to enjoy the coast line of Lake Michigan.

    Lastly, NO portfolio changes at this time; but watching our equity growth side getting serious face slaps.

    Regards,
    Catch
  • @catch22,

    Thanks for that "catch"...FRIFX (a fund you once held) gets a 100% buy from your link.
    image
  • Hi @bee
    Yes, FRIFX was replaced a number of years ago; when we moved more towards growth equity holdings. The fund remains quite unique for it's holdings in the real estate area and continues to be well managed in this sometimes erratic sector. The mix generally holds about 50/50 for equity, and for the most part, real estate junk bonds.

    FUND COMPOSITION
  • just bought a bunch of vonv today, fwiw
  • edited July 19
    Think I am heading to my bunker which is well stocked with beers, wine and tiolet paper. More seriously, several good fund managers i used did very well through this year's ups and downs (and last year). Very impressed with PRWCX and VWINX. Being patient helped to let everything recovered in fall after 2020's drawdown. FRIFX came back strongly this year. For bonds we like bank loans.
  • +1 david Bought some vig but will look at vonv as well! Took profits in jepi and acio-trying to get to fewer positions.
  • edited July 19
    Really not much going on yet. Energy is the laggard, down almost -4% on the day. Followed by Finl stocks and Basic Materials, both down -3%.

    Tech sector is only off -1.3%. Not exactly "blood in the streets". We need more of this.

    Bonds had a nice day.
  • sold bnd now abovewater, bought more vone and qqq, also aor
  • edited July 19
    Futures are trending downward for tomorrow. Even though S&P is down 1.5%, it is still up over 10% for the year.
  • @Sven et al

    I peek at this active global markets page (mostly the very top country list). Last night (Sunday) at 11pm EST, pretty much all of the markets were fully "red".
  • Sven said:

    Futures are trending downward for tomorrow. Even though S&P is down 1.5%, it is still up over 10% for the year.

    You might want to check that...
    https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
  • edited July 20
    Thanks. Futures market is more dynamic than I thought
  • edited July 20
    Added soxl vde brk.b yesterday /Keep dca into vpccx vang2045
    Sold one corp private restaurant bond +46% (exclude 6% annual div) since bought it 7 yrs ago

    Set sale limits soxl @44.3

    Been trading private aggressive volatile stocks very short term but not doing that well/prob will stop trading soon ( very small amount though only ~ 0.7% of portfolio)

    May get rid some T corporation bond today. Gain so much that over past 10 yrs

    Got letter tsp/401k - over weekend, +38% past 12 months, passive investing ( did not include past few wks where market slowly heading down)
    Portfolio ~ 87% stocks 13% fixed income.

    Vanguard private acct ~ +9.7% annually past 10 yrs, not as good as dji though


    Anyone adding to bonds jnk?

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2021-midyear-report:-the-best-and-worst-dividends-to-buy-now-2021-07-20

  • Not touching bonds of any sort directly. I have no need to, and besides, the past several years even sound companies have levered themselves to the gills in the era of cheap money...
  • edited July 22
    The article concludes: "As the name says, the stocks and funds inside pay out a 7% average dividend today."
    There's an etf for that, HNDL. It's been pretty well optimized during its short history. I like it.
  • beebee
    edited July 22
    delete
  • beebee
    edited July 22
    @wxman123
    Interesting EFT...an ETF fund of ETF funds...I charted HNDL against VWINX which appears to have a similar bond/equity mix...obviously not the same sectors. HNDL overweights Tech, Energy and Communication Tech.

    image
  • cf AOM, which out- and underperforms depending on period
  • I'm starting a position in PSMM tomorrow, which along with JEPI and ESGV should hopefully make better use of cash in my 2 Fidelity retirement accounts. Seems like a better strategy than making short-term trades in FTANX and FASMX, for example.
  • I closed out my SCV positions over the past couple of weeks. CSB, AVUV, and CALF have all had 1-month and 3-month declines, and the SCV index, IWN, has performed similarly. Bought more FRTY and FIW.
  • bee said:

    @wxman123
    Interesting EFT...an ETF fund of ETF funds...I charted HNDL against VWINX which appears to have a similar bond/equity mix...obviously not the same sectors. HNDL overweights Tech, Energy and Communication Tech.

    image

    Read about HNDL's methodology on its webpage, it's more than a static allocation fund like AOM or AOK. Who knows how it will perform over the long-term but it handled the covid crises quite well. It's what I'm buying when I buy these days.
  • Derf said:

    @Sven : I thing more than Covid is effecting Mr. Market. Instead of double bubble, More like a triple bubble !! Housing, equity, & Covid.

    Hope I'm wrong, Derf

    Rattner's take:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/opinion/the-fed-housing-market.html
  • AMZN might be a buy tomorrow AM. If AH pricing holds, the indices are also likely to be down a bit as well.
  • MJG
    edited July 30
    Hi Guys,

    Doing nothing and just holding our current portfolio is often a winning strategy that is NOT implemented. We tend to overreact to developing info and events, We react too quickly: we overreact. I do. It’s a common characteristic we should fight against. Here’s a Link to an article that provides some doable tactiics:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/take-these-steps-to-control-your-overreaction-to-market-volatility.html

    Good luck on winning this financial battle!






  • JD_co said:

    AMZN might be a buy tomorrow AM. If AH pricing holds, the indices are also likely to be down a bit as well.

    Added to my AMZN position with it DOWN 7+% early this AM.

    If a LT investor didn't at least nibble in AMZN this AM...

  • I see little reason to be nibbling at AMZN at this time other than it's down a bit. Nothing in the charts say that it's moving higher, in fact the opposite. I can wait.
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