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Oil touches $139 / barrel in overnight trading

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  • Another seriously RED U.S. evening, 11:50pm, Sunday

    Global equity futures

    FINVIZ futures, various markets

    Sidenote: I've watched gasoline futures for a number of years, and generally; our area finds retail pump prices to be +$.70/gallon above the futures price.

    I.E., $3/gallon futures price would = $3.70/gallon retail, more or less.

    The current futures price is $3.81/gallon as of this write.
    This should translate to $4.51/gallon retail, locally. I purchased gas this afternoon at $3.89/gallon. This is the highest price for the last month, and increases have been small increments, but not in line with futures pricing.

    I know there can be many variables to pricing in any given area.........strictly a local observation.

    Fingers positively crossed, for the world,
    Catch
  • edited March 7
    Yes, that was during the COVID lockdown. High oil price is causing tomorrow’s Dow future to be down 400 points. Also noted that treasury yield retreated a bit at the end of last week as the Ukraine war escalated.

    CNBC described this morning on the fallout resulting from the war - U.S. economy to slow, Europe risks recession and Russia to suffer double-digit decline

    @catch22, great info. Glad we still drive fuel efficient cars at these gas prices.
  • Howdy folks,

    And gold busted thru $2,000 and silver $26. This is while bitcoin is down. The tracking of gold vs. Bitcoin has been and is curious. We'll see. Buckle up boys.
    and girls, these are interesting times.

    Peace,

    Rono
  • edited March 7
    I knew I bought that hybrid Honda Accord for some reason in 2018. Plus - I hear it’s hard to buy any car at present time. Many dealers charging over sticker if you can even locate one.

    Gold up. Silver down. Markets in turmoil.
  • Hybrid vehicles have improved considerably in the last 15 years. They are now in the 5th or 6th generation with improved battery life and reliability. My neighbor has a Prius that gets over 40 miles per gallon on average and it is so quite while operating. Once the chip shortage is solved, the pricing will return to normal.
  • We have a 2017 Accord hybrid, great car. Leaving my Odyssey in garage except for hauling people or stuff.

    Tempted to unload some gold and silver coins we inherited in 2012. Tilting towards commodities with a modest position in PDBC and unloading some more global growth. News of food shortages and price increases has goosed KROP in recent days. TRP allocation funds have been a disappointment as @hank has said elsewhere.
  • We still remember the gas shortage in the 70’s. My daughter has a Civic hybrid which has been a reliable and fuel efficient car. We drive 10+ year old Civic and Odyssey where we organize our shopping in order to minimize gas expense. Cannot understand how our neighbors who drive large SUV’s.

    We made changes last fall following @lynnbolin articles. Rotated from tech/growth to value and defensive funds, trimmed EM exposure (thanks to Professor Snowball) and built up commodity funds to fight inflation. Wish we have more commodity exposure. Even with PRWCX, it is still down 5.5% as of last week. D&C balance fund is leading the pack this year. Think they are shorting the stock portion of the fund. Also First Eagle Global is down a fraction of that of global allocation funds.
  • edited March 7
    @Sven, Thanks for sharing. Not down that much - but after today … who knows? What a bloody mess. I track DKNG, but have resisted getting back in. Off almost 13% today down to $18.00. Here’s a stock that a year ago was around $75.00. My p/m miners appear to be up nicely today, but that’s about all - unless you count my 1 bear fund. RIO has been hot of late due to various metals shortages, but got whipped today. Fears of a slowing economy - which the bond markets also appear to be pointing to. Yes, D&C’s equity funds have held up relatively well.
  • edited March 7
    Even when my bonds are down, they are small relative to stocks. Most importantly, the correlation is mostly negative from day today. Glad that I do not hold any EM bonds, local currency or USD hedged. Gold is up over $2,000.

    One bright spot is BRKB is still in black. Warren Buffet bought $7B Occidental Petroleum stock several weeks ago.
  • And Carl Ichan exited his Occidental Petroleum stock position of at least a similar amount this past week. Makes me wonder who's on the right side of that trade.
  • Warren Buffett says never to hold money during a war. Here’s a stagflation playbook for stocks... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-says-never-to-hold-money-during-a-war-heres-a-stagflation-playbook-for-stocks-11646655287

    Interesting in this same article is some commentary on the oil situation visa via Russia ... JavierBlas tweets "The current half-hearted talks on Russia energy ban is a win for the Kremlin..."

    But the gist of the story is: "“The one thing you can be quite sure of is if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down — that’s happened in virtually every war that I’m aware of. The last thing you’d want to do is hold money during a war,” he said.

    Buffett bought his first stock in 1942, when “macro factors were not looking good,” but insisted investors would frankly “be a lot better owning productive assets over the next 50 years” than pieces of paper."

    In a subsequent MarketWatch story: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-tesla-market-cap-value-51646661852 = To answer @Mark question... Warren generally wins these.


  • edited March 7
    image

    6300 California Street in San Francisco. No comment necessary.
  • Sven said:

    Hybrid vehicles have improved considerably in the last 15 years. They are now in the 5th or 6th generation with improved battery life and reliability. My neighbor has a Prius that gets over 40 miles per gallon on average and it is so quite while operating. Once the chip shortage is solved, the pricing will return to normal.

    I suppose so, but my '08 Prius (bought '07) has been unimaginably reliable from day 1, and I am hardly alone. Never had a car like it except for four somewhat newer Priuses; no repairs other than the routine maintenance. 45mpg and all that, down from 55 a while ago. Just an amazing ownership experience.
  • Great testimony from a satisfying customer on hybrid vehicles. Battery technology must be improving enough to enable larger vehicles including Highlander (SUV) and Sienna (minivan).
  • Some years back the WSJ or someone ran a brief piece noting that the hybrid battery had not been replaced on a single Prius in the US except for trauma. Surely not the case by now, 22y in. But a remarkable article which I wish I could find.
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