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AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
For the week ending on 8/10/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.2%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.2%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.5% (low). With all Sentiments still in 30s, future flip-flops in ordering are expected. The strong rally from mid-June lows is at an important juncture. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (24+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down/flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=740

Comments

  • Sven
    Thanks for the update. Is AAII sentiment a reliable forward looking indicator?
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Sentiment indicators are contrarian.

    AAII Sentiment has been negative most of Q1 and Q2, more so in Q2 and was the worst around mid-June. For its believers, these were the times to buy/add, or at least hold (not sell), as difficult as it may have been at the time. It is now at neutral - sort of non-signal.

    If the market bottom in mid-June holds up, then AAII Sentiment was sending appropriate signals.

    But I just post the data and leave what to do to the readers.
  • Sven
    edited August 2022
    Really appreciate your opinion. Market rallied recently from softer July CPI number, 8.5% versus June’s 9.1%. Small additions, but nothing radical.
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