MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Categories

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

IHME Covid model for China. China's ability to function properly has global impacts.

catch22catch22
in Other Investing
China's ability to function properly, as an economy, has global impacts; be it the production of medical based products, electronic devices or the numerous other consumer products sold around the globe. The ability to produce, also may impact commodity based imports/pricing.
A massive Covid infection in China will not be good for anyone.

IHME indicates a serious potential for a high Covid death rate in China. IHME was a major supplier of data from the beginning of Covid in the U.S.

What is IHME?
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global research center at the University of Washington in Seattle, with a mission to measure the world's most pressing health problems and to evaluate the strategies used to address them.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
IHME was launched in June 2007 based on a core grant of $105 million primarily funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

IHME / China Covid related links/articles

Comments

  • Sven
    The more pertinent question we should be asking is how this COVID fallout will affect the Chinese manufacturing capacity and the consequence on the global supply chain.

    If the recent shutdown of Foxconn factory is an indicator of problem, this would also applies to all manufacturing environment in China. Is there a possibility of something much worse to come? I seriously hope not.
    https://nytimes.com/2022/11/02/world/asia/china-foxconn-workers.html

    As I stated in previous posts, the lack of effective vaccines and vaccination program will continue to plague China growth engine.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    edited December 2022
    China has a significant population problem- a major imbalance between a large older population requiring increasing amounts of health and other support services, and a smaller younger population which is becoming increasingly unable to supply sufficient numbers to support the required national workforce. The income of this younger population is also a major source of tax revenue which helps the government to take care of the older people.

    A similar situation also exists here in the US, with a smaller younger workforce paying into Social Security, and an increasingly large older population drawing from SS.

    The Chinese government has, for whatever reason, failed miserably in it’s vaccination efforts, especially with respect to their older population. Now, spurred by civic unrest and protest, it has decided to let Covid rip loose, taking down who it may, and their government has already stopped releasing the death count.

    It’s a reasonable prediction that when this is all over China will have many fewer old people to take care of. Would it be too cynical to suggest a connection here?
Sign In or Register to comment.