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Charles Bolin: My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023

edited January 24 in Fund Discussions
My Investment Picks For Retirees In 2023

{Forewarned - this article is from Seeking Alpha and some may not be able to access it}

Summary

° I expect the Federal Reserve to continue to increase rates at a slower pace until they reach about 5% and hold them there through 2023, creating opportunities for retirees.
° A recession is likely in the second half of 2023 and valuations are still high with respect to inflation and interest rates. Earnings growth is likely to decline.
° This article looks at how retirees may benefit from diversifying in bonds and staying diversified in conservative equity funds.

Comments

  • Mark, Thank you. Always something to ponder and learn.
  • can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway.:)
  • Good article.
    Lynn’s closing thoughts
    I expect 2023 to be a volatile year and believe stocks will see new lows and am underweight equities. I changed my investment approach when yields increased by buying individual bonds to match withdrawal plans. As a result, I will reduce how much I have invested in mixed asset funds. The funds in this article form my watchlist for 2023. I am going to concentrate on buying fixed income in the near term and shifting more to equities after the yield curve starts to steepen.
  • Crash said:

    can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway.:)

    Try this link. Should get you in at least 1 time.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571846-investment-picks-for-retirees-in-2023

  • "I believe that deglobalization, costs associated with climate change, and depletion of natural resources will lead to higher inflation over the next few decades."

    Indeed.
  • edited January 24
    hank said:

    Crash said:

    can't get in. but thanks for playing, anyway.:)

    Try this link. Should get you in at least 1 time.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571846-investment-picks-for-retirees-in-2023

    Thank you for the extra effort, hank. But no, it would not let me read it. Not past the header and bullet points. I'm glad to read from someone else on this thread the "closing thoughts" Lynn offered. THAT is helpful, indeed. @sven. @hank.

  • Curious if Lynn Bolin recommended any specific fund picks in his article for 2023?

    Thanks,

    Fred
  • edited January 25
    fred495 said:

    Curious if Lynn Bolin recommended any specific fund picks in his article for 2023.

    Ummm … In a roundabout way yes - there are recommendations. Tons of funds are listed, analyzed, compared. They are grouped into many different categories. He does identify several he owns. It’s a very lengthy article, so I’d be hesitant to just pluck a few of his choices out. Really needs to be read in totality. (I can say he thinks highly of mixed allocation funds for conservative retired investors.)

    I accessed article just 1 time using my DuckGo browser. But couldn’t get in again. A good approach would be to clear your computer or device’s cache and then attempt to access it. Only issue is you’ll later need to re-enter passwords for sites you frequently visit.
  • CTRL - H Clear browser history, works for this PC. Try whatever is appropriate browser history clear for your device, and try the link again.
  • I use Safari browser in Private mode, thus it does not retain the history. I was pleasantly surprise to be able to read the entire article. Like Hank stated above, there are many funds in different categories that were filtered through the MFO premium screen and M*. Lynn is reallocating toward individual bonds and bond funds to match his withdrawal plan, while lowering the equity risk as he is expecting a recession in 2023. Indeed this is very timely as we are likely to enter some rough patches this year.
  • I was able to read it in private mode as well. Interesting stuff.
  • I do agree with the Summary points noted above.
  • edited January 25
    Charles, thank you!

    I read your entire article with great interest. It helped me decide on a Global Stock Fund (FMIEX) to add to my Core Holdings to slightly increase my foreign stock exposure. Global Stock Funds are my primary means to obtain foreign exposure. FWIW, my other fund in that cat is PRGSX.

    I highly recommend your article to anyone who posts here. It is chock full of excellent analysis that is great food for thought.
  • agreed!
  • Fidelity Low Priced Stock Fund (FLPSX), mentioned in Small and Mid-Cap Equity section, holds 34% international equities, including nearly 10% emerging markets. Mid cap value.

    Good article Charles!
  • of course one must wonder, as in the past, what it means that so very many are bearish
  • +1 hank I believe this article lists more funds than any of Mr. Bolin's previous articles !
  • Thanks for all of the positive comments. If anyone is having trouble reading the article, you may email me at [email protected] and I will send a copy.

    The two most important recommendations in that article are to maintain a diversified portfolio and match bonds and CDs with withdrawal needs. Other than that, each investor's needs and beliefs are different, so I attempted to present quality options.

    For me, after I wrote the article, I went back and looked I wanted to do. I made two changes: 1) move proceeds from matured CDs and Treasuries sitting in money markets to Fidelity and Vanguard Intermediate Treasury funds, and 2) move a short-term Muni-fund into an intermediate Muni-fund. Small steps each month.

    I have more CDs and Treasuries maturing in February and will reassess based on new data. The funds in the article are my short-list. One fund mentioned by a reader is AVGE which is interesting. I am looking for similar funds for comparison.

    Glad that you enjoyed the article.
  • edited January 25
    us and europe inflation is effectively over (meaning back to 2% or less), says yet another student

    (aside from lags and ongoing gouging)

    https://twitter.com/jan_eeckhout/status/1617478919560794112
  • @lynnbolin2021 - I noticed that DIVO was mentioned in your article. Do you have an opinion on it's counterpart IDVO? TIA if you care to comment.
  • Mark said:

    @lynnbolin2021 - I noticed that DIVO was mentioned in your article. Do you have an opinion on it's counterpart IDVO? TIA if you care to comment.

    Hi Mark,

    I like DIVO and have owned it in the past. I limit my funds to those with AUM over $100M while IDVO has only $9M and has an inception date of last September. By comparison, DIVO has $2.6B in AUM. IDVO has readily outperformed the S&P 500 during its existence. It has also outperformed DIVO readily.

    It will probably be fine applying a similar model as DIVO, but it is too small and too new for my taste.

    Looking at other Options Arbitrage / Strategies, I see not other funds that interest me with more AUM and age. IRONX, JHEQX, and JEPIX have good long-term performance and are Great Owls. ACIO has also done well. REMIX also uses options and has a good three-year history.

    While I find funds like IDVO interesting, I put them in a "Young Fund" Watchlist until they get more history.
  • Charles, thank you again.
  • Hi Lynn, thanks again for another great article. I have learned from your writings to “try” and start making investment decisions more focused on future likelihoods vs only on past results (like looking at business cycles, Fed policy, etc)

    Question for you or anyone else more fluent with using the MFO screener:
    Can anyone find balanced or multi-asset funds that have a profile similar to what you recommend? In other words, for equities, value+SC+foreign, and for bonds, intermediate high quality? I would prefer to have my bonds chosen by a manager as part of an active fund.

    Or, is it better to just continue using individual funds from these categories, from funds similar to what you recommend, and build my own (for example, COWZ+DIVI+DODIX)?
    Thanks again!
    Rick
  • @Rickrmf: I think your own portfolio is great. I am a great fan of COWZ and DIVI. I have never owned DODIX, however. One new SMID ETF, SMOT, has been shooting the lights out since the Oct 22 lows. I think SC will continue to do well; RWJ or BRSVX are worth a look.
  • Rickrmf said:



    Can anyone find balanced or multi-asset funds that have a profile similar to what you recommend? In other words, for equities, value+SC+foreign, and for bonds, intermediate high quality? I would prefer to have my bonds chosen by a manager as part of an active fund.
    Rick

    Hi @Rickmf, The MFO screener can get you close. For example, I might choose Global Macro, Global Value, Global Core and Mixed Asset as criteria. There are some other criteria like "Equities less than" and "Bonds more than". One problem is that funds can cross over the Lipper Categories.

    What I do is do a screen and then select "Groups" that I want. Then I select "Columns" to limit what I don't want. Then I saved out the settings as "Preferences". I can then dump the results to an Excel spreadsheet and dive into the details such as percent equities or percent invested in the US. I spent considerable time selecting the funds that I want to track and then saving them as "Watchlists" which I update one a year or when I read about an interesting fund. Other options are whether the fund is "actively" managed.

    I generally own about ten funds per portfolio, but the allocations are concentrated in the funds that I like the most. I do prefer multi asset funds.

    My next article is about Avantis Global Multi-Cap Core. It describes a multi-cap fund of funds. I intend to use it as you inquire - to build my own mixed asset portfolio. I will always own mixed asset funds though - like the Vanguard Global Wellington or Wellesley funds. They are mixed asset, global value funds.
  • BenWP said:

    @Rickrmf: I think your own portfolio is great. I am a great fan of COWZ and DIVI. I have never owned DODIX, however. One new SMID ETF, SMOT, has been shooting the lights out since the Oct 22 lows. I think SC will continue to do well; RWJ or BRSVX are worth a look.

    Hi @Rickmf and @BenWP I agree that COWZ, DIVI, and DODIX are great funds. I have owned DODIX in the past and am considering it now.

    Of the Small- and Mid-Caps in the article and RWJ, BRSVX, looking at the ten-year performance, I like Fidelity FLPSX and BOSOX for being less volatile.
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