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Vanguard Predicts Stock Returns — You're Not Going To Like Them

edited January 25 in Other Investing
Muted returns. Value over growth. International over US. Maybe 60/40 makes sense. Ten years is a very long time. But, this at least seems plausible.




  • Even they're saying global ex-US is the 'recommended' place to be. Interesting.
  • stinks. but not a surprise, eh? I wonder how Canada fits? Some of my favorite watch-list stuff is from North of the border.
  • edited January 25
    US stocks are traded at higher valuations compare to the rest of the world. Also US dollar stayed high until October 2022, so it hurt the oversea funds when they are not currency hedged. Broadening the investment universe or opportunities is healthy for investors since the FAANG stocks are so dominating for so long.

    Please see the above link for the original Vanguard article for additional details.
  • edited January 25
    Guess I’m missing something. (Of course just their best guess.) But those are average annual returns - positive not negative. And likely to exceed both inflation and what cash / short-term fixed income would provide. Just eyeballing the list of equity investments, it appears to average out to something north of 6% per year. U.S. stocks as a group work out to 5.7% while small cap and international holdings are expected to do somewhat better

    One caveat: Those probably represent stocks net of fees. So if owned thru funds and your average ER = 1%, your return would be well below the projections.
  • I don’t take these guess too serious. On an earlier post where there were a number of forecasts with a wide array of guess…
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