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The trouble with a Bull Market.............it is followed by the Bear.

prinx
edited April 2013 in Fund Discussions
The trouble with a Bull Market .
This is a welcomed Bull Market and I am getting top heavy with equity funds. When I correct the allocation I use VWINX Wellesley income conservative allocation fund. Bear Markets seem to occur in a rapid way as compared to a Bull. They are sometimes difficult initially to distinguished from a correction.

It has been my habit to not sell out but keep on balancing as necessary. VWINX fell only 10% in 2008.
What are some of your safety funds?
prinx

Comments

  • beebee
    edited April 2013
    Hi prinx,
    In the past dips...grand dips...GNMA funds have performed very well...Treasuries of all stripes outperformed. As interest rates move upwards something other than these type investment will need to be identified becaues they may not be the "flight to safety" they once were.

    Your conservative fund choice is mine as well at Vanguard. At TRowe Price I like RPSIX....about 20% equities. When charting my other equity-centic funds I will chart them with my conservative choices. Crossovers of these two funds helps me determine if risk is "on" or "off".

    For example, an equity fund like VHCOX (a midcap growth fund) over the last quarter (3 months) has consistently trended above VWINX...so risk "on" and I own my a higher level of VHCOX then when risk is "off".
    Here are the two together:
    image

    When VHCOX crosses negatively compared to VWINX over a 1-3 month time frame it signals to me risk is "off" and I switch out of VHCOX and back into VWINX. I also try to capture 10% profits when my equity-centric funds have moved 10% above my conservative allocation reference such as VWINX. Looking at the chart above it's time to take that 10% from VHCOX and move it into VWINX, but not time to move entirely or substantially out of VHCOX.
  • Mona
    Reply to @bee:

    bee,

    If you like VHCOX, you will love POAGX. When VHCOX was a midcap growth fund, I had a nice position in it. However, when it morphed into a large cap growth fund, I switched to POAGX, a true midcap growth fund, and never looked back. Both are managed by the fine folks at Primecap, VHCOX purchased through Vanguard and POAGX either directly with Primecap or through Vanguard Brokerage.

    Mona
  • beebee
    Reply to @Mona:

    Thanks Mona...doesn't seem to be NTF at the popular brokerage houses...TF at Vanguard.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Reply to @bee: Yes, I checked Schwab and found the TF- but it might be worth it for the performance and low ER?
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