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I haven't read it yet, just offering it up for consumption by interested individuals. Podcast and/or text supplied through Matt Levine at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read. A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.
Really entertaining …I heard that Sunday AM on Bloomberg. Quite an interesting individual. “Four Pillars of Investing” is a really worthwhile read. As I’m sure most of his books are…
It’s frustrating to write-up a paragraph or two complete with linked sources and then lose it when trying to post and having to start over. If you can anticipate that potential problem use the “copy” function of your computer or tablet to temporally store whatever’s on the screen (similar to a cut & paste). Then, if the post fails to take and disappears you can paste your content back to the screen on on another attempt.
Getting some folks to save 15%, 10% or 5% monthly is difficult. I’ve tried with someone I know well. ISTM - Either you “see the light” and do it or you don’t. What “clicks” in one brain but doesn’t in another is a mystery. Bernstein should address the part of the brain that makes us think today will last forever, we will never grow old and the things we buy today will cost the same into perpetuity.
I do think that if you begin investing when you’re very young ignorance may be bliss. We paid a 403-B plan “advisor” 4% front load for buying a global growth fund (thru payroll deduction) in the 70s. But in return we went about our daily lives and work and paid no attention to how the investment was performing. Had we, likely myself and others would have pulled out of equities and gone to cash or safer alternatives at some point along the road.
the most amazing thing regarding barry ritholtz is his ability to get top-of-the-line guests. there are several exchanges where barry pits his years of investing heuristics against bill's more probabilistic backed approach. it did not appear barry was going to let go regardless.
but as a middle-of-the-road conservative, nothing was more telling than barry's inability to understand the likely mid-long term disaster of trump. barry tried to portray big panics (dotcom, 9\11,covid...) as regular things investors survive, but history mostly forgets those that didnt survive. so while economic outcomes of panics may be the same, this is a singular cause by the most powerful person in the world with unprecedented incompetence.
then both went on to giggle over the infamous clip, where trump (& family) at the peak of his mental powers, could not do simple math, and expended more time defending his error then attempting a correct recalc.
but as with other topics, i doubt barry walked away agreeing trump is uniquely highly probable disaster.
Comments
Audio Link
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read.
A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.
The board’s software is really difficult to work with this evening!
Yes, I've encountered very slow response times this evening.
I've had to reload multiple MFO webpages in order to read/post content.
https://etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf
Getting some folks to save
15%,10%or 5% monthly is difficult. I’ve tried with someone I know well. ISTM - Either you “see the light” and do it or you don’t. What “clicks” in one brain but doesn’t in another is a mystery. Bernstein should address the part of the brain that makes us think today will last forever, we will never grow old and the things we buy today will cost the same into perpetuity.I do think that if you begin investing when you’re very young ignorance may be bliss. We paid a 403-B plan “advisor” 4% front load for buying a global growth fund (thru payroll deduction) in the 70s. But in return we went about our daily lives and work and paid no attention to how the investment was performing. Had we, likely myself and others would have pulled out of equities and gone to cash or safer alternatives at some point along the road.
And, MFO was flaky. No connection, a type of timeout I've not seen before, and save draft and preview would not function.
there are several exchanges where barry pits his years of investing heuristics against bill's more probabilistic backed approach. it did not appear barry was going to let go regardless.
but as a middle-of-the-road conservative, nothing was more telling than barry's inability to understand the likely mid-long term disaster of trump. barry tried to portray big panics (dotcom, 9\11,covid...) as regular things investors survive, but history mostly forgets those that didnt survive.
so while economic outcomes of panics may be the same, this is a singular cause by the most powerful person in the world with unprecedented incompetence.
then both went on to giggle over the infamous clip, where trump (& family) at the peak of his mental powers, could not do simple math, and expended more time defending his error then attempting a correct recalc.
but as with other topics, i doubt barry walked away agreeing trump is uniquely highly probable disaster.