The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017

FD1000

The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $41.5 billion for the month. A key factor was the surge in customs duties, which totaled roughly $27 billion for the month...up from $23 billion in May...

That’s a $68.5 billion swing in the wrong direction for the experts.

It’s not surprising to me. Economist forecasts make for great conversation—but that’s about it.

If you choose to base your investments on their predictions, that’s your call.
I don’t.

lynnbolin2021

At this point, it looks mostly like noise. I count seventeen monthly budget surpluses since January 2017 with fourteen being more than $27B. We need to watch it for throughout the rest of the year to see the trend.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS#

Anna

Thanks @lynnbolin2021. If you blow up to a 10 yr period, then scan across the dates, you will notice that, with the exception of COVID, there is a spike in April of every year. I wonder why. I get a spike in my yearly cash flow in December since I RMD in December. My smoothed yearly and multi-year, not so spikey. It really depends on what programs and contracts are executed in a given time period. Fundamentally, after a budget is set, government agencies are required to execute the budget so monthly behavior doesn't matter so much except on the "executed on time" parameters. Fiscal year end, the expection is a success on both the "within budget" and "on time" parameters of government programs. The "within budget" targets a commitment of all funds allocated by the budget. Also, the government spends or allocates all revenues collected. There is no real long term savings account. The budget usually is not fully covered by the incoming new revenue. Of course, we almost never have surplus revenue but we always have a budget that is executed (backed up by sales of bonds), new revenue be pickled.

catch22

Hi @Anna The April spikes are generally attributed to IRS tax season payments.

Observant1

FD1000 said:

The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $41.5 billion for the month. A key factor was the surge in customs duties, which totaled roughly $27 billion for the month...up from $23 billion in May...

That’s a $68.5 billion swing in the wrong direction for the experts.

It’s not surprising to me. Economist forecasts make for great conversation—but that’s about it.

If you choose to base your investments on their predictions, that’s your call.
I don’t.

It's not surprising when someone cherry-picks random data in a vain attempt to score a victory for "their side."
The customs duties are not free money.
How will tariffs affect U.S. consumers' finances and spending patterns?
What will be the impact to company's margins?
If you choose to ignore the consequences of ill-conceived tariff "plans," that's your call.
I don't!

AndyJ

Like a lot of smart observers noted during the previous time all eyes were on every inflation report, one month by itself means nothing, and one year is almost entirely backward-looking. A good compromise is three months, averaged or annualized -- mainly short-term, in the present, without so much of the potential variability in one very short term measurement.

Crash

The 1-month surplus as reported in the news is not a lie, just a distraction. Over the next decade (unless a future Congress and President changes course) we are looking at a weaker and weaker dollar, with a national debt that is so big, it's hardly worth bothering to count, anymore. Hell, it's already there...