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conservative values investing case study


at the risk of further exciting certain opportunists who are unable to invest directly in ICE, noted SEC filing forensic analyst Michelle Leder dropped a note on prison profiteer geo group.
geo has been a 'trump trade' for 2 characteristics :
1. long disdain for ESG, where Leder focuses her corp governance expertise.
2. the 'immigration' entertainment catalyst rounding up citizens and non-criminals alike, billed to taxpayers


" ...operate over a dozen prisons (they call them processing centers) under a contract with ICE. Needless to say, business is booming. When it reported second quarter results last week, revenues were up 5% to ~$640million for the quarter. Investors were not impressed, sending the stock down over 20% on the results.

In my adopted hometown of LA, you don’t have to drive too far to see brown-skinned people being rounded up at the Lowes or Home Depot. Today's LA Times had a story about a 15year-old -- the same age as my son -- being approached by ICE agents wielding guns on his way into a local school...

For many people, myself included, this represents an unprecedented attack on people who are just going about their lives. For GEO, it represents “unprecedented business opportunities”. That’s the exact language that the company has used in three separate SEC filings...

In the July 10 8-K, the company extended the contract for founder and Executive Chairman George Zoley. When Zoley transitioned from CEO to Exec Chairman 5 years ago at the age of 71, the company entered into an agreement for him to serve as Exec Chairman through July 1, 2026. Yesterday, the company extended that date to April 2, 2029, citing the “unprecedented business opportunities” as the primary reason.
...Zoley’s target bonus and target stock award will both increase to $1.5million, up from $1million previously. In the same filing, the company also increased CEO J. David Donahue’s target bonus and stock grant to 150%, again citing the “unprecedented business opportunities” [to] $1.5million. ...Donahue only took over as CEO on Jan. 1, that seems as if he’s being rewarded for luck, rather than any type of managerial skill. GEO stock rose sharply after Trump won on Nov, 5, GEO Group stock has been falling since he took office January 20.

Rewarding executives when business is booming makes a lot of sense. But what if the reason that it’s booming is due to highly questionable legal tactics and misery for all sorts of people? Much of LA has been living under a pall for the past 2 months, where people are afraid to drop their kids off at summer camp or go grocery shopping. Is that really worth a hefty reward for two executives? If nothing else, the optics behind these awards are pretty dreadful..."
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