Homebuyers backing out of contracts

DrVenture

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/homebuyers-backing-out-of-deals.html

"There were roughly 47% more home sellers than buyers in the market in December (or 631,535 more, in numerical terms), according to a separate Redfin report. That is the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 and up 7.1 percentage points from the previous month."

"...a lot of uncertainty around the current administration, mortgage rates, affordability. These are all challenges this year.”

"Regionally, Atlanta saw the most contract cancellations in December (22.5%), followed by Jacksonville, Florida (20.6%), San Antonio, Texas (20.6%), Cleveland, Ohio (20.2%) and Tampa, Florida (19.4%). Cancellations were the least common in the New York metropolitan area, San Francisco and San Jose, California."

Sounds like GA, FL, TX and Ohio will be seeing home prices drop further.

msf

"Pending sales actually dropped an outsized 9% in December from November, according to the National Association of Realtors, so the numbers were already low. Given the high rate of cancellations, closed sales in January and February are likely to be quite weak."

From the same NAR report as referenced above,

“The housing sector is not out of the woods yet,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “After several months of encouraging signs in pending contracts and closed sales, the December new contract figures have dampened the short-term outlook.”

“Even after accounting for typical seasonal patterns, interpreting in-person home search activity in the winter – especially in December – can be tricky due to public holidays, people taking time off, and wintry weather conditions,” Yun added. “We’ll be watching the data in the coming months to determine whether the soft contract signings were a one-month aberration or the start of an underlying trend.”

https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-9-3-decrease-in-december

Short term, if contract signings were off in December due to wintry conditions, then January may wind up looking like a disaster.

equalizer

Good time to check a house with subzero temperatures though. Easy to check if windows and roof are holding up. Good insulation wasn’t installed until 1970’s, so older homes need updating.

Windchill hit 40 degrees the other night, had to crank the heater up to 68. Oh no, it’s gonna hit 80 this weekend here in SoCal, where home prices expected to go up another 3-5%.