U.S. had almost no job growth in 2025

JD_co

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/january-jobs-revisions-trump-rcna258398

Does this concern anybody - should the markets "care"? Or can we just dismiss the weakened employment market.

Bold added:

The U.S. economy experienced almost zero job growth in 2025, according to revised federal data. On a more encouraging note: Hiring has picked up in 2026.

Preliminary data had indicated that the U.S. economy added 584,000 jobs last year. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised that number after it received additional state data and found that the labor market had added 181,000 jobs in all of 2025.

This is far fewer than the 1.46 million jobs that were added in 2024.

Not sure we can get excited about JAN-2026 numbers if they keep getting revised down to nothing.

Old_Joe

I'm certain that can be fixed- an unauthorized source has revealed that the "president" has issued a secret "executive order" revising all of those numbers upwards "by a whole lot".

JD_co

Yes, the fix is in alright. Revise it all down after the fact - the rubes will never catch on!!!

so much winning

Observant1

Does this concern anybody - should the markets "care"?
Yes and Yes.

Or can we just dismiss the weakened employment market.
I don't think so.

DrVenture

As I have stated (or alluded to) in other comments, several factors may be hiding the reality of the economic weakness. Zero job growth is readily apparent, but many simply focus on the unemployment rate. It is only one single aspect of jobs. The percentage of the labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work.

GDP is currently being driven by massive AI spending. But, these relatively normal GDP numbers are likely hiding all sorts of pressures across many industries and businesses. Problems that should emerge when AI spending slows.

Inflation may be accurately reporting what it seeks to measure. I have seen no evidence it is being corrupted. But, in all likelihood it is not capturing the true picture of affordability and cost increases. As others have presented, there are lots of affordability factors that are not captured by CPI, and that is by design.

Then there is the impact of U.S. companies absorbing tariff costs, and that would be weighing on revenues and profits. Maybe why the S&P and other U.S. indices were 40% lower than the two previous years.

Companies will not be fooled, they will rein in spending, and cut costs, and that usually impacts hiring.

Rbrt

I’ve been tracking job numbers (weird, I know). The numbers we see reported are always “seasonally adjusted “. BLS smooths the month to month numbers, taking out the job losses that always occur in January, July and slight decreases in December. In trade all the other months are trimmed back.

Usually, for any 12 month rolling period the adjusted total jobs pretty much equal the raw total jobs. The last 2 years, however, have been wacky. For the 12 months ending Jan, Feb & Mar 2025, adjusted new jobs were well under actual (800,000 - 900,000). They fixed that in April - October. Now however the adjustment has gone the other way. The 12 months ending in Dec 2025 show adjusted job growth 107,000 over actual and the 12 months ending in January 2026 adjusted up 740,000! Which is to say, Actual jobs decreased 381,000 for the 12 months ending 1/2026 but the adjusted numbers show a gain of 359,000.

I’m struggling to see exactly where the discrepancy occurs other than the actual total jobs decreased from 157,095,000 (1/2025) to a 156,714,000 (1/2026) while the reported “adjusted” go from 158,268,000 (1/2025) to 158,627,000 (1/2026).

JD_co

DrVenture said:

Companies will not be fooled, they will rein in spending, and cut costs, and that usually impacts hiring.

So who is being fooled here? Is there not a trickle-down effect to this reduction of new hiring?

(AI will not save us.)

Affordability issues aren't captured by CPI, thus we cannot rely upon this metric to gage our current daily economic hardships. If you cringe at the prices you are paying at the grocery store while at the same time hearing that inflation is tame per the MSM, you do an eyeroll.

They are trying to fool us. Telling us that we do not see what we are seeing.

gman57

When AI or other policies decrease employment who will buy products. Less people with money means less purchasing power which will lead to a shrinking economy until we get UBI (universal basic income)