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Is the time right for this stopped-watch fun, HSGFX

Even a stopped watch is correct twice in 24 hours. Hussman (HSGFX) after 9 years of missing the bull market completely is finally right. I never thought I'd find myself complementing this fund, but it goes to show every manager has his day in the sun. Hussman's fund was up +13.1% over the last 3 months of the year!

Anyone think it could be a short term buy to get through a bear market, possibly a recession? Crazy thought?

Comments

  • This post smacks of market timing. Not something I (nor anybody, IMO) can consider myself an expert at.
  • edited January 2
    I'm certainly not an expert, but isn't going to cash market timing too (and how many posts have we seen for that happening in the last few months to different degrees)? I'm just saying every fund has it's place in a cycle and the time for this fund is probably now. I don't plan to bite, but I wouldn't be surprised if HSGFX returns more than the stock market or cash for that matter in 2019.
  • Going to cash is also market timing, something I've discussed on numerous occasions on this board, and something I do not advocate.

    As a general thought, I feel the MFO forum has become much more short-term oriented with all of the posts around this topic.
  • Hussman is worse than a stopped clock having lost money in 2008.
  • Yes he did lose in 2008. Without looking it up I kind of remember he lost 6%'ish when the market was down 30'something %. But now you can forever say Hussman in 2018 made 13% when the overall market lost money:)

    Hey, I've been a big critic of this guy for years and I don't think by any means this fund is a good long term holding. Just giving credit where credit is due.
  • edited January 2
    Hi Mike - At first suspected you were asking “tongue-in-cheek” ... as you and I are among those who previously owned HSGFX and fled. I track the fund a bit and have noticed his better than normal showing in ‘18. All of the above reactions are correct. Hussman has blown at least a couple opportunities to get the fund back on track (‘07-‘09 notable). So why trust him now?

    The same thought you voice has occurred to me. If we enter a long, protracted, gut-wrenching bear market with major indexes off 50% or more over a decade, than this fund will shine (err - do a lot less worse) and you’d be glad to have owned it. (But God help this country.) It’s been my impression that’s the kind of scenario he’s long been expecting.

    Will that happen? Dunno. Anything’s possible. NO - I won’t be sending him any money.


    PS - As a timing play it may have some merrit. Not my game.
  • edited January 2
    JoJo26 said:

    ”This post smacks of market timing ... “

    ”suggests” sounds nicer.:)
  • When I check Hussman’s website, I think his philosophy has changed. He used to say he bought stocks long and then puts on the market in case it dropped. But now it looks way more complex ( https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-growth-fund/ ) In any case, I gave him a chance once and failed me. No second chances!
  • In answer to your original question about HSGFX you could have tripled your money over the last 10 years with an investment instead in PRPFX assuming you have the mindset of forever pending gloom & doom. I would/could never take a meaningful position in either of these funds to make it worth my time but I see that folks do.
  • I pretty much agree with you Mark. I used to think PRPFX was the perfect fund to own through an economic cycle, and if your expectations are around a 5-6% 'fairly stable' return it probably is a good choice. But not for me at this time.
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