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How did HSGFX manage to lose .77% today?

edited March 2019 in Fund Discussions
Just a fund I track for reference. But I thought Hussman had the fund positioned to move opposite stocks. Surely he wouldn’t be long equities in this “overbought” market? So HSGFX should have risen today. Best guess would be he’s got some gold or miners in there. The metal had a rough day.

FYI: The fund celebrated its first positive year in about a decade in 2018. This year it was down 4% prior to today.
I don’t hate the fund. I just think it’s an interesting specimen to study - hopefully makes us all better investors.

Comments

  • edited March 2019
    Look at top equity holdings:

    Symbol Last Price Change
    URBN 30.20 -0.93 -2.99% USD 4:00PM EST
    CRI 95.33 -4.33 -4.34% USD 4:02PM EST
    GCO 46.49 -1.78 -3.69% USD 4:02PM EST

  • edited March 2019
    @JoeD, Thanks. He may hold those stocks in long positions. I don’t know. But Hussman generally shorts the market overall. So having some long positions that did poorly shouldn’t ding his return that much.

    Hussman protests if others suggest he’s shorting the markets. Says he doesn’t sell stocks short. Yet, somehow, through his use of put / call options, he typically positions HSGFX to be short the major averages (rise when the market falls and fall when it rises). That short-like positioning is what allowed the fund to do well in 2018 while the overall market tanked. It’s also the reason the fund has lagged badly over the past decade.
  • Yes, well even his hedging is sub-par. I owned HSGFX many years ago, but didn't keep it for very long. Not a fan of Hussman. His execution is poor.

    Best of luck with this one.
  • edited March 2019
    @JoeD, Yep - I also once owned it. Interesting to track just to see how a real bear fund performs on any given day. Provides a nice contrast to many other funds. Everyone seems to agree he’s very smart. I hope for the sake of his investors this one finally works for them.

    FWIW - Here’s the funds I track regularily (none of which I currently own). Provides a nice cross section of how different types of funds performed on any given day.

    VFINX. -.39%
    TRBCX -.71%
    DSENX -.14%
    HSGFX -.77%
    KCMTX -.44%
    OAKBX -.44%
    PRAFX +.09%
    TRRIX -.07%

    From the above list, HSGFX performed worst today. The closest to it was Price’s Blue Chip fund TRBCX which fell .71%. Commodity heavy PRAFX actually bucked the trend and gained slightly. In addition, of the dozen that I own (not shown) only one performed worse than HSGFX - that being a gold fund.
  • @Hank, I think Hussman's fund is more of a market-neutral fund than a short fund.

    As I've said many times here, none (ok, maybe 99%) of these funds do not beat a plain vanilla balanced fund for return over a market cycle. I just can't understand the allure unless one thinks they are adept to trading in and out through the cycle. But here is where I have to throw in the phrase, "to each their own".
  • First, the fund is terrible, absolutely terrible.

    But really... Why are we fretting over a 1-day performance figure?
  • @JoJo26: Amen !
    Regards,
    Ted:)
  • JoJo26 said:

    Why are we fretting over a 1-day performance figure?

    Maybe because discussing mutual funds is what we do here.

    Personally I find fretting about whether the market is “overbought” or “oversold” somewhat trivial. But I understand that some find it of interest.
  • @JoJo26: I think you struck a raw nerve !
    Regards,
    Ted:)
  • edited March 2019
    @Ted, You’ve posted 17 new threads just this morning. Other than the one on @Catch22 (which I’ve bumped over to the active discussions) none of yours have yet received comment. By contrast, I’ve posted one new thread over the last week and it’s received several comments.

    When you’re done denigrating me, you can get back to work over in the boneyard!
    :)
  • hank said:

    @Ted, You’ve posted 17 new threads just this morning. Other than the one on @Catch22 (which I’ve bumped over to the active discussions) none of yours have yet received comment. By contrast, I’ve posted one new thread over the last week and it’s received several comments.

    When you’re done denigrating me, you can get back to work over in the boneyard!
    :)

    Hank, you don't get it. This is just a playground for Ted to post articles each day.

    Separate discussion strings are not to be promoted.

  • Why would it be any different than the last 10 years or so?
  • Err...even I sold HSGFX...so now who/why we still monitoring it???:-D
  • edited March 2019

    Err...even I sold HSGFX...so now who/why we still monitoring it?

    Dunno. Just curious I guess. Would rather monitor a fund I know something about than just gaze at a M* list of “best performers”.

    How about you serving up some new topics big guy? Haven’t put one of your own up yet this year. Throw a few up and we’ll take some shots at em.:) (I admire you sticking with Hussman as long as you did.)
  • edited March 2019
    @hank I don't deserve your admiration. The cynic in me always prompts me to think no one really knows anything, and reversion to the mean is the norm. I always maintained, I couldn't find anything wrong with Hussman's ANALysis, but his trading desk who didn't really know how to hedge. Option decay when market moving against you will definitely turn returns negative from fully hedged position. However, KNOWING that fact, WTF did you not hedge a little less? Full hedged means your return should be close to 0% and not several points below it.

    So basically HSGFX became a "Bear fund", and after giving him plenty time to fix his problem I sold, because I thought I have as much probability of hedging my bets by just investing part of my portfolio in a short fund instead.

    Regarding why I haven't been much active these days, I'm trying to sorta determine my priorities. I find working in the IT sector with nincompoops totally humiliating, and after all these years after having long recognized I made bad career choice I am too old for a change. Suffering through it I realized is causing me a lot of stress and causing me to lose my sense of humor. So my inactivity on MFO has as much to do with the fact total time I spend at computer outside work has reduced by 90%. I switched to Macs from PCs making sure I don't "work from home" anymore. I have one princess in college and another who will be in a couple of years. Just trying to spend more time with the family, something I never really did before given my wife is 1000 times worse than me when it comes to bringing work home.

    However, I promise one day I will surprise you with a fund:-)
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