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label it however you will; it would be funny except for being not funny
... Trump and his allies ... surmised ... that if they waited to add the tax increases until after the ... election, few of the people most affected were likely to remember who was responsible.
IIRC, the gamble at the time was that Congress would make sure the increases never went through. I have to assume that the GOP was operating on the assumption that they would remain in the majority.
On less firm ground, I think the machinations had to do with Gramm-Rudman.
I don't much care for the legislation. Seems to have done little more than pay for stock buy-backs. But I don't see how Mr. Stiglitz gets to the conclusion that people wouldn't notice, the media wouldn't cover, and politicians wouldn't campaign on, impending tax increases.
"... Trump and his allies ... surmised ... that if they waited to add the tax increases until after the ... election, few of the people most affected were likely to remember who was responsible."
That link only gives tax brackets and standard deductions. But there's more to taxes than tax tables. For example, if the current law eliminated mortgage deductions starting in 2021 (it doesn't), would you still say that taxes weren't being increased next year?
Going to the horse's mouth, here's the original JCT analysis. It explains that Federal taxes means more than individual income taxes: "Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change."
The tables on the first two pages give average tax rates by income range for 2019 (p1) and 2021 (p2). The bottom line, literally, last column, shows the average national tax rate across all taxpayers. In 2019 it is 19.1%. In 2021 it is 19.3%. That's a tax increase, period. So Stiglitz is correct that a 2021 tax increase has been baked in.
By comparing row by row, one can see how people in different income ranges are affected. No income range over $10K, except $75K-$100K, escapes a tax hike. The rate increases by income ranges are: $10K-$20K (0.4%), $20K-$30K (0.6%), $30K-$40K (0.2%), $40K-$50K (0.5%), $50K-$75K (0.2%), $75K-$100K (0.0%), $100K-$200K (0.1%), $200K-$500K (0.3%), $500K-$1M (0.4%), and $1M+ (0.5%).
Stiglitz was likely looking not at the detail tables I used, but the last table on p.7. That table shows, as he recounted, that in 2021 those earning between $10K and $30K will pay an extra $5.8B to the Federal government than they would have under the old law.
Comments
On less firm ground, I think the machinations had to do with Gramm-Rudman.
I don't much care for the legislation. Seems to have done little more than pay for stock buy-backs. But I don't see how Mr. Stiglitz gets to the conclusion that people wouldn't notice, the media wouldn't cover, and politicians wouldn't campaign on, impending tax increases.
Seems to be fake news according to this article.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/here-are-the-new-income-tax-brackets-for-2021.html
Going to the horse's mouth, here's the original JCT analysis. It explains that Federal taxes means more than individual income taxes: "Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change."
The tables on the first two pages give average tax rates by income range for 2019 (p1) and 2021 (p2). The bottom line, literally, last column, shows the average national tax rate across all taxpayers. In 2019 it is 19.1%. In 2021 it is 19.3%. That's a tax increase, period. So Stiglitz is correct that a 2021 tax increase has been baked in.
By comparing row by row, one can see how people in different income ranges are affected. No income range over $10K, except $75K-$100K, escapes a tax hike. The rate increases by income ranges are:
$10K-$20K (0.4%),
$20K-$30K (0.6%),
$30K-$40K (0.2%),
$40K-$50K (0.5%),
$50K-$75K (0.2%),
$75K-$100K (0.0%),
$100K-$200K (0.1%),
$200K-$500K (0.3%),
$500K-$1M (0.4%), and
$1M+ (0.5%).
Stiglitz was likely looking not at the detail tables I used, but the last table on p.7. That table shows, as he recounted, that in 2021 those earning between $10K and $30K will pay an extra $5.8B to the Federal government than they would have under the old law.