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Rubbing Some VIX over the S&P 500 Index

edited December 2021 in Fund Discussions
The VIX (Volatility Index) is closing in on 30 this AM. We touched above this level one year ago (Nov. 30, 2020) when we briefly reach the 33 level.

Here's a chart of the VIX showing it's movement over the last 5 years along with the S&P 500.



  • I also watch SKEW. High SKEW indicates high level of hedging activity via puts. This is similar to put-call ratio but instead of volumes, SKEW uses relative prices of nearby calls and puts. Unfortunately, both VIX and SKEW tend to act as coincident indicators.$SKEW&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78279191114
  • edited December 2021
    Frankly, and based solely on the first chart itself (which I also expanded to cover almost four years), I'm not really seeing ANY usable relationship between the two things. What little (inverse) relationship MAY exist seems to come too late to be of any use. I've seen this "VIX predicts the market" idea before, but I don't see anything here to bolster that argument. What am I missing?
  • edited December 2021
    @racqueteer, since VIX is based on current options pricing info, it has to be COINCIDENT. Like rain forecasting based on measures of precipitations. I still find VIX (and SKEW) as useful measures of "fear" (and hedging).
  • Thanks for the reply... Yes, I can see HOW it might be used and WHAT it may indicate, but I don't see anything in the charts which establishes that a meaningful relationship exists! Any correlation appears to be coincident and insignificant; or even illusory. What evidence is there to suggest this has ANY value whatsoever? Again, I must be missing something...
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