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AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/4/22

For the week ending on 5/4/22, the Survey remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (52.9%; very high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (20.3%; very low); bullish became the middle sentiment (26.9%; low from very low last week). Investor concerns remained high inflation; supply-chain disruptions; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); the Fed (the FOMC announced 50-bps hike with at least 2 more 50-bps hikes to follow but any 75-bps hikes were ruled out; balance sheet reduction plan of $47.5-95.0 billion/mo); Russia-Ukraine war (now 10+ weeks); Covid-19 spread & lockdowns in China. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (there was a huge Fed-"relief" rally on Wednesday), bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar down.


  • In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up (there was a huge Fed-"relief" rally on Wednesday), bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar down.
    That explained the ups on Wednesday. Reality returns on Thursday and everything is down.

  • edited May 5
    Powell acknowledged that current policy of managing expectations by talking has been working. Media had floated possible 75-bps frontloaded hike(s) but Powell shot that down good. So, it was a huge relief yesterday that the FOMC announced only 50-bps hike, and possibly another two 50-bps hikes - that carries us through the September FOMC.
  • Current high VIX (live) & low SKEW (EOD yesterday) may also indicate selling exhaustion. But watch for new SKEW value EOD today.$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84968758803
  • edited May 5
    Weird day in that virtually every equity sector along with bonds was hammered pretty hard. Tech of course hardest. Nothing spared. Maybe utilities? Despite losing nearly 9% today, ARKK is still “only” down 50% YTD. I’d expected more. Curious how Giroux fared with all the mega stuff he’s got there.

    Sentiment after today? You haveta believe the retail crowd is shell shocked.

  • BLNDX/REMIX is the only fund I hold that lost less than 0.25% today. PDBC was down 0.52% while GLFOX lost 0.88%. Everything else stunk up the joint.
  • edited May 5
    PRWCX didn’t do too badly -2.23%. Compare that to Price’s blue chip fund TRBCX which lost 5.56% today. It’s now down 25-30% YTD. Geez - The year is still young! No telling how low it might go.
  • PRWAX has outperformed TRBCX as well as FDGRX over the last few years.
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