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Tactical: Anyone buying funds here on this dip, or maybe waiting to see "cliffhanger"?

edited November 2012 in Fund Discussions
I pared down considerable on Sept 13, just after the Fed's last defibrillator attempt. Got lucky, caught a decent top. Market now down maybe 6% or so- anyone getting in here, or maybe waiting to see what happens with the "fiscal cliff"?

Comments

  • edited November 2012
    I bought a moderate amount of a specific stock yesterday, but otherwise am waiting until lower for adding any more to funds or stocks. I started a light short position yesterday, which I may add to.

    Apple down nearly 4% more
  • edited November 2012
    I sold off some about a month or so ago and lightened up some more today. Seems to me, the fiscal cliff could drive the market down quite a bit more from where we are today. Remember what happened August 2011.
  • Gandalf & Scott: Yeah, that's why I asked. I'm thinking pretty much same as you. Thanks.
  • Reply to @Gandalf: I tend to have an itchy trigger finger, but this time I must agree with Gandalf.
  • edited November 2012
    Reply to @Old_Joe: I'll also add that I think the government will solve the fiscal cliff in the end by doing what it does best - kicking the can down the road and throwing money at the problem. I do want to add to a few stocks and funds, but otherwise I've done less trading/movement this year than last year and I can see myself doing even less next year. In terms of specific names, I can see holding the specific stocks I have for 3-5+ years, and possibly longer. Some funds will be lessened or dropped before year's end, but otherwise a number of funds I have I can see holding for a few years.
  • Still watching here; for whatever comes forward in the next few months. 'Course, I don't have a clue of what a break point downward, in terms of percentage, may be; to cause the big houses to want to move monies in for purchases.
    Too much uneasy remains in place.
    Reply to bee regarding some of this today, Nov 8
  • edited November 2012
    With this week's action I've increased in PONDX and decreased in SUBFX while remaining the same in PPSIX, MWCRX, and ABTYX. Those five are my only holdings. I hold no corporate junk but must say corporate junk has been very resilient in the face of declining stocks.
  • Reply to @Hiyield007: In the interests of self-education, I'm wondering why you made the PONDX vs SUBFX decision? What factors were major in your evaluations?

    Thanks- always trying to learn more.
  • edited November 2012
    bought a tad today. Should add: I think it will go lower. Nasty looking cliff ahead and such a wonderful bunch of guys in D.C. trying to get her all settled. Hell, we're in Florida. Here they're still countin votes. Expecting to know on Saturday who won the election.
  • Reply to @Old_Joe: Old Joe, I am strictly a low volatility momentum/relative strength trader/investor. My preference are bond funds that are hanging right at or making new highs and without a lot of drama (volatility) I've had SUBFX on a short leash because I knew with its portfolio of financial bonds and its outsized 2012 performance it would get hit harder in a correction than something like PONDX. PONDX has hit new 52 week highs the past three trading days and new highs in ABTYX, while MWCRX is right at highs and (adjusting for payout last month) PPSIX is but a penny off highs. Can't say the same anymore for SUBFX.
  • edited November 2012
    Howdy Hiyield007,

    Watching our HY/HI funds for market reactions; and yes, they have held well. A recent story (Bloomberg?) mentioned HY area fund outflows for the past 4 weeks. Perhaps the etf sector; as I don't recall what defined "funds"....active vs etf/index.
    A note for the last 2 days for funds we hold and two etf's for reference:

    Nov 7, Wednesday and Nov 8, Thursday
    --- DIHYX, -.11%.............+0.00%
    --- SPHIX, -.20%.............+0.00%
    --- FHIIX.lw +0.00%.........-.13%
    --- FAGIX, -.20%..............-.11%
    --- HYG, -.60%................ -.33%
    --- JNK, -.47%................ -.32%

    ***FAGIX generally has 15-20% equity exposure, too.

    One non-HY entry.....LSBDX, which we hold; usually gets a pretty good face slap when equity markets retract. The past two days have found only a -.33% loss; of which, I am surprised that the loss is not larger.

    I am also curious for the dollar reduction in SUBFX.

    Take care,
    Catch
  • Hi hank,
    Hoping all is well in the great north country.
    Mr. Snoop would like to know if it is possible that you might reveal what "tad's" ticker might be.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Reply to @catch22: moved a smigin to OPPAX from cash
  • If only they would use their toes also it would go twice as fast...
  • edited November 2012
    Thanks a lot... when I superposed the PONDX and SUBFX chart lines for YTD it looked like SUBFX might be running out of steam. Never pays to be too greedy... take the money and run sometimes is best.
  • A nice set of charts and commentary for this pre/post election week market:
    advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Current-Market-Snapshot.php
  • Didn't realize that "Bummer" was a financial term, but it sure makes the point, yes? Thanks for the charts.
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