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In the last three months of decline, LCORX has lost 50% of what its peers have; over the past three years, its made 250% of what they have (per Morningstar).The Major Trend Index slipped another notch to -3 in the week ended October 20th, thanks to a two-point breakdown in the Technical category. All four of the MTI’s factor groupings are now negative, supporting a defensive stance toward the stock market.
Leuthold tactical portfolios—including the Core Fund, Core private accounts, Core ETF, and Global Fund—are all positioned with net equity exposure of 43%.
On a short-term basis, it’s troubling that a market setback as internally deep as the current one hasn’t resulted in more improvement in the Sentiment work. The “wall of worry” accompanying much of the 2023 market action has morphed into a “slope of hope.”
On a long-term basis, it’s worrisome that S&P 500 valuation measures still look so high, despite the index having gone nowhere in the last 29 months. But there’s a silver lining to this year’s incredibly narrow market action: The “average stock” in our Leuthold 3000 universe has sunk to even lower valuation levels than seen at last October’s bear market lows.
Across the 40 inputs to the Technical category, there were zero upgrades and nine downgrades.
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Comments
Does anyone remember a frequent poster here named @Flack? Technical analysis was his bread and butter. Always enjoyed the unique perspective he brought to the board.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/39024/because-nobody-knows-what-s-going-to-happen-next
Thanks for the post. Any reason you did not want to post this as an update to your Oct 12 thread OP?
Also, have you looked into CRDBX, another tactical fund shop? Would love to get your thoughts on this shop and the fund. Interesting that these guys continue to find their signals in the long side - one can see that from the fund’s price action. Not for the faint of heart for sure.
Thanks.