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Any good sources for CEF performance in 2008? / Question answered. Thanks all!
Yahoo displays OEF and ETF yearly performance back to inception, including 2007-‘09. But with CEFs I can’t locate performance data. I’d like to look at several different CEFs (different assets / styles) back then for a better perspective on how they might behave in a severe downturn. Yahoo does show some prices for CEFs back then. But an easy to decipher presentation of gain / loss seems lacking.
Thanks @yogibearbull. Nuveen’s “CEF Connect” site does display not only the chart view but also the actual gain / loss for NAV and price in table form. 20 years appears to be the max allowed. I just needed to dig deeper. . M*’s chart wouldn’t work when I tried it. Refused to lock in both start and end dates selected.
We are fortunate to have participated in the 07-09 financial disaster - in the sense a lot can be learned from the experience. 17-18 consecutive “down” months doesn’t sound like a long time until you’re experiencing it.
You may need to change the M* chart settings. It sometimes defaults to monthly frequency. Make sure that this is set to daily, then try it again.
Also, make sure that you have selected the data type(s) that you want. NAV or price, with or without divs. Personally I prefer to include divs because without that I don't get a sense of total return.
As an example, and to illustrate the impact of leverage in a down market, I charted (on M*) MIN (unleveraged) vs MMT (current leverage is around 1/4), from 12/28/2007 to 12/30/2008 - just to show that dates other than month's end can be used.
MIN price only - 2.79% MIN NAV only - (4.55%) MIN price+div - 13.01% MIN NAV+div - 3.94%
MMT price only - (15.28%) MMT NAV only - (15.71%) MMT price+div - (8.14%) MMT NAV + div - (9.61%)
This is not to say that leverage doesn't help over the long term, but it can be deadly at times. From 12/28/2007 to now, the cumulative price+div returns are: MIN price+div - 111.82% MMT price+div - 247.87%
Still, between 10/31/21 and 10/14/22, MMT (price+div) lost 30.47% while MIN lost "only" 17.88%. For perspective BNDW (Vanguard Total World Bond) lost 14.85%.
CEF Connect did the job (provided the fund existed in ‘08). Losses appear in line with how growth stock OEFs performed. The worst one of what I hold, UTF, lost 57% in ‘08. I’ll probably sell that one. Two I plan to add are FMY (+4.56%) and ETJ (+6.32%). And there were 3 decent performers which I currently own: GDL ( -8.45%), MMT (-9.61%), TSI (-6.32%). @msf is correct that MIN gained in ‘08. I’ve had that one on radar. But seems to have lagged cash for a decade or more.
One of interest is MGF which invests in government paper and rose +26.29% in 2008. But it hasn’t kept pace with cash over the past decade. I suppose it might someday make a useful hedge. Perhaps even in the near future.
Hi @Mark Thank you. Total Return link is interesting and useful. We've always performed simple math for inflation and eventual taxation of our investments and what the 'real return' will become. In the pre-internet days with access to data via the WSJ and Baron's, I used 5% for annual inflation impact to be ahead of the curve (hopefully). The was during the period of some very serious inflation for many of we 'older' investors. However, equity/bond investing has provided more than the bank/cu accounts so many folks have used for many years. And the knowledge gained in all things financial over the years has allowed us to award our own degrees in 'economics' to ourselves. We've been able to share and pass along the knowledge. Compound, compound, compound !!! Remain curious, Catch
And the knowledge gained in all things financial over the years has allowed us to award our own degrees in 'economics' to ourselves. We've been able to share and pass along the knowledge. Compound, compound, compound !!!
Yes. I’ve learned so much from the highly capable informed investors here over the years.
And a plug for The Humble Investor by Daniel Rasmussen which @Observant1 shared here recently. I listen to the audio book most nights. His take isn’t mainstream. His idea of smart investing is to avoid whatever’s been hot and seek out underappreciated areas. And he admits that it hasn’t worked that well in recent years. But an interesting conversation nonetheless.
I infer from Rasmussen that he perceives a lot of bubbles, especially in the private equity area - but late night listening isn’t always accurate and he’s pretty subtle.
Thanks for the update regarding The Humble Investor by Daniel Rasmussen. I placed a hold on the book in two different library systems. The Humble Investor is "on order" in both systems - availability may take a few weeks. I look forward to reading it!
Comments
Popular CEFs like PDI didn't exist in 2007-09.
We are fortunate to have participated in the 07-09 financial disaster - in the sense a lot can be learned from the experience. 17-18 consecutive “down” months doesn’t sound like a long time until you’re experiencing it.
StockCharts allows dates to 1985.
Also, make sure that you have selected the data type(s) that you want. NAV or price, with or without divs. Personally I prefer to include divs because without that I don't get a sense of total return.
As an example, and to illustrate the impact of leverage in a down market, I charted (on M*) MIN (unleveraged) vs MMT (current leverage is around 1/4), from 12/28/2007 to 12/30/2008 - just to show that dates other than month's end can be used.
MIN price only - 2.79%
MIN NAV only - (4.55%)
MIN price+div - 13.01%
MIN NAV+div - 3.94%
MMT price only - (15.28%)
MMT NAV only - (15.71%)
MMT price+div - (8.14%)
MMT NAV + div - (9.61%)
This is not to say that leverage doesn't help over the long term, but it can be deadly at times. From 12/28/2007 to now, the cumulative price+div returns are:
MIN price+div - 111.82%
MMT price+div - 247.87%
Still, between 10/31/21 and 10/14/22, MMT (price+div) lost 30.47% while MIN lost "only" 17.88%. For perspective BNDW (Vanguard Total World Bond) lost 14.85%.
Total Return
Total Return SPY - ADX - CSQ
CEF Connect did the job (provided the fund existed in ‘08). Losses appear in line with how growth stock OEFs performed. The worst one of what I hold, UTF, lost 57% in ‘08. I’ll probably sell that one. Two I plan to add are FMY (+4.56%) and ETJ (+6.32%). And there were 3 decent performers which I currently own: GDL ( -8.45%), MMT (-9.61%), TSI (-6.32%). @msf is correct that MIN gained in ‘08. I’ve had that one on radar. But seems to have lagged cash for a decade or more.
One of interest is MGF which invests in government paper and rose +26.29% in 2008. But it hasn’t kept pace with cash over the past decade. I suppose it might someday make a useful hedge. Perhaps even in the near future.
Total Return link is interesting and useful.
We've always performed simple math for inflation and eventual taxation of our investments and what the 'real return' will become.
In the pre-internet days with access to data via the WSJ and Baron's, I used 5% for annual inflation impact to be ahead of the curve (hopefully). The was during the period of some very serious inflation for many of we 'older' investors.
However, equity/bond investing has provided more than the bank/cu accounts so many folks have used for many years. And the knowledge gained in all things financial over the years has allowed us to award our own degrees in 'economics' to ourselves.
Compound, compound, compound !!!
Remain curious,
Catch
And a plug for The Humble Investor by Daniel Rasmussen which @Observant1 shared here recently. I listen to the audio book most nights. His take isn’t mainstream. His idea of smart investing is to avoid whatever’s been hot and seek out underappreciated areas. And he admits that it hasn’t worked that well in recent years. But an interesting conversation nonetheless.
I infer from Rasmussen that he perceives a lot of bubbles, especially in the private equity area - but late night listening isn’t always accurate and he’s pretty subtle.
Thanks for the update regarding The Humble Investor by Daniel Rasmussen.
I placed a hold on the book in two different library systems.
The Humble Investor is "on order" in both systems - availability may take a few weeks.
I look forward to reading it!