This week’s Barron’s has an interesting article recommending an investment in asset managers. Three mentioned favorably: T. Rowe Price, Blackrock, Invesco, each for different reasons. With Invesco they like that about half of its offerings now are popular ETFs. For Blackrock it’s the continuing growth of AUM and high quality of management.
What they say about T Rowe Price: T. Rowe may be the deepest value and riskiest bet. At just 11 times forward earnings, it’s one of the cheapest fund managers on the market. It’s cheap for a reason: Assets keep draining away. The company reported $24 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2025 after seeing $43 billion depart in 2024.
My question: While all of the above may be true, wouldn’t the stocks of these three firms (and asset managers in general) fall sharply if the equity markets entered a prolongued (year+ long) downturn owing to the market generated loss of AUM? And, in such a scenario wouldn’t those firms (like the 3 mentioned) heavily invested in retail fund flows suffer the most? I recall trying to play Invesco during the ‘22 downturn and it didn’t go well. Your thoughts?
(Article caption: “The fund industry faces big hurdles, but these three asset managers have been unjustly dismissed.)”
Comments
P.S. I didn't read the article.
@Derf raises an interesting secondary question. When you buy a stock, how long do you intend to hold it? Buffett might say forever. Doubt many of us have that degree of patience. I only buy individual stocks when the price is already depressed. But if it turns south early on I’m likely to sell. That would have been the right thing to do with TROW 5 years ago.
(TROW stock price: - 27.4% over 5 years)
PS - Here’s an interesting discussion I ran across today.
TROW was slow to pick up on the ETF craze. They once had an arsenal of solid actively managed funds. As I ponder what happened: (1) Did the poor customer service cause investors to flee? Or was it the other way around? (2) Did their early failure to compete on the ETF front force them to cut costs on the service end? I tend to think the latter, though it served them poorly.