https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs.html"Washington turned to tariffs and tightened access to advanced technology early in the year, assuming China’s slowing growth and overextended property sector would make it an easy target and would force quick concession. It didn’t.
Beijing absorbed the shock and retaliated with a master class in economic statecraft and policy discipline. Controls on rare-earth exports were applied with precision where U.S. defense and automobile manufacturers remained deeply reliant and vulnerable. Customs and regulatory friction appeared dialed up just enough to induce pain without provoking panic. And
Chinese exporters diverted flows through Southeast Asia and Mexico, dulling the effects of tariffs even as headline restrictions intensified.
The numbers tell the story. As we ended November,
China’s goods trade surplus had climbed past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, illustrating how external demand continued to power growth despite American pressure."
Comments
am by no stretch a china optimist (especially for foreign investors), but they have been playing checkers while the gop have been playing with\for themselves. america has only leveled the field regarding corruption.
am much more optimistic regarding japan, SK.
U.S. grants TSMC annual licence to import U.S. chipmaking tools into China
Not the most advanced chips, but still an olive branch.
The wins for China keep coming. It is hard to see this as anything but China's strategy working exactly as planned, and the U.S. realizing that the hardline policies are not working.
Peter Navarro is no match to China’s experienced trading team.
they have aspirational economic wishes with no ability for a viable strategy nor execution...plus kleptocracy keeps them fairly busy.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/31/us/trump-deals-policy-conflicts-web.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BFA.Gt6z.bkmB6UaGXW-m
https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Chinas-Economy-Rightsizing-2025-Looking-Ahead-to-2026.pdf
actual 2025 growth fell short of 3% again, with a
strong first half and then a badly down-sloping second half. With late-2025 growth
sputtering around 1% and a charm offensive aiming to encourage American hopes
for a great power deal, Beijing is talking loudly about supporting domestic growth
in 2026. But domestic growth hasn’t stalled for want of talk: Pledges have been
abundant, yet China remains dependent on a trillion-dollar (and growing) trade
surplus that steals growth from others. For domestic demand to lift China above
2% GDP growth in 2026, Beijing must reverse the systemic causes of household
and business malaise or pile on costly demand subsidies
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https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-factory-output-retail-sales-weaken-november-2025-12-15/
Summary
Factory output, retail sales grow at weakest pace in over a year
Data highlight weak domestic demand, record trade surplus
Policymakers face rising calls to reduce export reliance
China growth expected to remain weak in 2026
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The economist
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/12/30/chinas-property-woes-could-last-until-2030
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2025/11/12/the-chinese-economy-will-slow-in-the-year-ahead
This recent article shows that China has no intention of playing by anyone else rules in this trade war. They intend to use this as an opportunity to re-map the playing field. Not a great sign for the "they need us and will cave any minute now" narrative.
https://asiatimes.com/2026/01/china-slashes-hundreds-of-tariffs-in-strategic-trade-war-twist/
"Beginning January 1, China will reduce import duties on 935 items to levels below Most-Favored-Nation rates. While such moves are often framed as technical administrative updates, the specific composition of this list suggests a deeper strategic recalibration.
Beijing is not pursuing a broad policy of trade liberalization; rather, it is implementing a targeted opening designed to secure the critical inputs necessary for industrial self-reliance
All indications are that they are preparing for a lengthy fight.
The unexpected consequence is that rather than work with a low cost supplier, we have assisted in helping to increase their exports, and hasten the creation of a stronger, more agile adversary and competitor.
Especially since he fancies himself as a "China Hawk".
But then he also believed hydroxycholoquine was effective and the 2020 election was stolen.
His only redeeming factor in my opinion is of all these clowns he is the only one who did jail time.
A close second in the first term is elevating Atlas, a radiologist, as a public health and Covid expert.
I would love to hear the private opinions of these choices from Chinese officials. They must be splitting a gut laughing