“In markets, inflection points are only recognisable in retrospect — sometimes years later.
But it looks more and more like US stocks hit an important turning point on the last Wednesday in October.
Up until that point, tech and consumer discretionary sectors had led the market, and highly speculative stocks
of all sorts were popular. Since then, leadership has passed abruptly to solid old-economy sectors: materials,
energy and consumer staples.”
“Most importantly, though, October 29 was when investor enthusiasm for heavy investment in AI peaked
and began to fall. Meta reported earnings that day, and announced a big increase in spending.
Investors hated it and the stock tumbled.
In the six weeks since, Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle and Broadcom have fallen significantly.
The loss of speculative appetite has extended beyond AI.”
https://archive.ph/uu6z8#selection-1997.0-2009.527
Comments
From 2010 to 2025, I repeatedly argued that large-cap growth was the place to be, and that view paid off. Since 2025, however, I’ve posted several times that it’s time to diversify.
Since 2000. I don't have a clue about the future but current markets dictate what I have owned.
As is often repeated here on the forum, I've done my best to have a reasonable plan, and then stick to it. But then again, I'm married, so.....
*EDIT TO ADD: Especially lately, that reasonable plan should have FLEXIBLE guardrails.
This is a really good way of approaching the problem.
Don't try to "outsmart" the market by making large tactical bets or flitting from one investment fad to another.
actually, research shows that dynamic asset allocation is a better systematic method, but too complex\intensive to execute by individuals. see elm research for more info.