Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

Trump's Immigration Raids in South Texas Are Starting to Hit the Economy

edited February 9 in Other Investing
Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal. This should be a free link to the full and unedited article.

Trade groups are raising alarms about aggressive immigration enforcement hurting businesses in the region
WESLACO, Texas—At Monte Cielo, a new housing development in this growing region of South Texas, half-built homes are sitting empty. The quiet scene comes after federal immigration agents have hit the development repeatedly, carrying out at least half a dozen raids there in recent months, builders said. The most recent was a few weeks ago.

The result? Homes are months behind schedule, and contractors face an uphill battle to recruit more workers to finish them. The situation is becoming familiar across the Rio Grande Valley, where trade groups are raising alarms about aggressive immigration enforcement wreaking economic havoc. Construction delays threaten higher prices for buyers and lower margins for builders. Materials suppliers are laying off employees.

“They are basically taking everyone in there working, whether they have proper documentation or not,” said Mario Guerrero, chief executive of the South Texas Builders Association. Guerrero added that he voted for President Trump, along with most of the region, and supports deportations of criminals, but “when you are terrorizing jobsites, people are afraid to go to work.”

South Texas is a heightened example of what contractors are facing across the country in areas where U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity has intensified. Home builders in Minnesota relayed similar experiences of raids picking up whole work crews, even those with legal documentation. Nationally, a third of commercial contractors reported being affected by immigration-enforcement actions in the past six months, according to a January report by trade group Associated General Contractors of America.

The situation here highlights how two of Trump’s priorities—curbing illegal immigration and strengthening the economy—can come into conflict with one another. Hidalgo County, which comprises some 22 cities including Weslaco, McAllen and Mission, is growing at twice the rate of the U.S. as a whole, according to census data, from 870,000 people in 2020 to 915,000 people in 2025. McAllen Mayor Javier Villalobos, a Republican, said he is concerned about the raids raising home prices and putting a damper on new business investment.

In 2024, immigrants—both with and without legal status—accounted for more than half of construction-trade workers in Texas, California, New Jersey and the District of Columbia, according to a senior research analyst at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. Builders said that is much higher in the Rio Grande Valley. Moreover, the raids occurring now are netting not only immigrants in the country illegally, but also those with legal authorization, builders said.

Because of that, people are afraid to work whether they have legal authorization or not, a reality that has hit the industry and broader regional economy hard. Paul Rodriguez, CEO of Valley Land Title, estimated that residential construction activity fell 30% in recent months in Hidalgo County.

A large regional concrete supplier saw concrete use fall 60% between late May and November as home builders lost workers and were unable to move forward with construction. The company had to lay off 60 of its 150 workers. The company filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in December, citing the drop in demand coinciding with immigration raids.

At a local tile supplier, the ICE crackdown has resulted in $5.3 million in lost sales. The company has laid off two drivers and four sales representatives and reduced hours for most of the remaining 39 employees, the first layoffs in the company’s history. Pallets that should have been picked up within 24 hours have now been sitting in his parking lot for months. The company took out a $1.3 million credit line to pay for tile that contractors ordered but never picked up because they couldn’t find workers. Two crews of installers, who previously spent their time upgrading the company’s four showrooms, now install tiles for customers who can’t find workers.

Johnny Vasquez, executive officer of the Rio Grande Valley Builders Association, observing flaws in newly lain sidewalk, said that the immigration raids are leading to poor quality of work because workers with decades of experience are arrested and contractors scramble for inexperienced replacements. Contractors face an uphill battle to recruit more workers to finish houses: looking at a framed house with materials stacked on the roof and no workers in sight, Vasquez ticked off the people affected, from lenders and smaller contractors to home buyers.

“If nobody comes back to finish out this house, a lot of people are going to lose out,” he said.

image

Comment:   And here is the reality of Trump's economic "planning".

Comments

  • edited February 9
    The impact on home building was exactly what was predicted over a year ago.
    Agriculture and manufacturing are facing the same.
    A 60% drop in concrete use tells the whole story.

    This will not result in more affordable housing. Or food. Or manufactured items.
  • I can concur on the ice raids. They take anyone and everyone. Gotta hit the numbers you know. Non-criminals, women, children doesn't matter. When papers are shown to them they either throw them away or tear them up. The sole mission of ICE and BP here was to terrify, inflict cruelty and physical harm. Nothing more and laws be damned.

    Many builders and contractors up here always had a 'who cares' attitude. There'll be more applicants and I'll be able to pay them less than I already do, many with cash under the table to avoid paying SS. Maybe the pigeons are coming home to roost in flocks, just as OJ noted.

  • i doubt anything can dent trump worship outside the austin area.
    given the sheer number of immigrants, why isnt trump sending ICE and NationalGuard from other states?
    we all know the reason, which is that trump is chickenshi+ of affecting all the wealthier MAGA, which is what happens if you enforce immigration in the oil patch.
  • I question whether the publicly issued economic reports will be ALLOWED to expose these resulting issues.

    Do we trust this admin to refrain from interfering? (Rhetorical question).
  • No, all the government data is now questionable, jobs, inflation, GDP. Even bad numbers cannot be trusted, they are probably worse than reported.
  • a2z said:


    i doubt anything can dent trump worship outside the austin area.
    given the sheer number of immigrants, why isnt trump sending ICE and NationalGuard from other states?
    we all know the reason, which is that trump is chickenshi+ of affecting all the wealthier MAGA, which is what happens if you enforce immigration in the oil patch.

    True. But, even in the bluest states, one can assume likely 35% trump support. That 35% is getting burned too. Smacked right in the pocketbook. And all the Hispanic trump supporters, even in Texas, are probably very upset. Maybe they do not outwardly express it, but at the polls?
  • It's just shocking that y'all don't trust our very own president to tell the truth. My oh my... what have we come to?
  • We have come to this my good man. No trust at all.

    Not to change the subject but in the last few days and especially after the murders of Good and Pretti I've begun to wonder how many other possible victims have these goons picked off in remote areas or even along the border that nobody knows about. When they arrest folks they seem to often just disappear to who knows where and It's not a stretch for me to think that many have disappeared permanently into holes in the ground. Not hard to imagine at all.
  • That's dark stuff there, Mark. And totally within the realm of possibility.

    Some of these guys are just MAGA thugs with bad intentions. So we would not be shocked if true.
Sign In or Register to comment.