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Prediction markets operate in the gray areas of gambling (regulated by states) and futures (regulated by CFTC). Young-billionaire feature in Forbes also offers interesting insights into the short history of prediction markets that seem to have come out of nowhere.
After initial skepticism on its 2018 founding by 2 MIT alumni as a Y Combinator startup, Kalshi (means everything in Arabic, a small pitcher in Sanskrit/Hindi) was the first to get CFTC approval in 11/2020 for betting on general events. So Kalshi got an edge over Polymarket that founded in 03/2020, shutout in US from 01/2022-09/2025, but also got CFTC approval to operate in US from 11/2025.
Kalshi sued CFTC over the rejections of its political & election prediction markets during 2022-24 & won in 2024.
Both Kalshi & Polymarket have well-connected advisors & financial backers. They have promoted themselves through social-media & have also made deals with regular media & brokerages. So, their familiarity has grown in Internet-time.
Now that prediction markets have gained traction, CFTC & states are engaged in a tussle over their regulation. Both SEC & CFTC are struggling with new financial technologies such as cryptos & prediction markets. CLARITY bill/act is stuck in congress over disagreements between crypto & banking industry of "rewards", a term coined by crypto industry that looks and acts like deposit interests. After GENIUS Act passed in 07/2025, there were hopes for a quick follow up approval for CLARITY bill/act, but that hasn't happened yet.
As I recall Kalshi & Polymarket have Demented Donnie's elder son as either a paid advisor or a board member. How is that not a huge conflict of interest for these companies??
IMO prediction markets, like sports betting, are simply another way to separate people from their money. And anyone using the (easily-gamed) prediction market 'preditions' to invest is probably going to get their faces ripped off.
Do the Kaishi and Polymarket ads come with information on how to get help for your gambling swapping addiction issues?
Casino and online betting services do support some social services to address gambling addiction. Remember, they encourage "responsible gambling", whatever that is (-:). This is common in the so-called sin-industry - "responsible smoking" (I quit 40+ years ago), "responsible drinking" (I quit 5+ years ago) - I may soon apply for sainthood.
Predictions markets are just coming out of existential crises, so it's too soon for them to think about social impacts of their businesses. This issue may be better addressed to the likes of Robinhood/HOOD, Webull/BULL Interactive Brokers/IBKR, Charles Schwab/SCHW, Intercontinental Exchange/ICE, etc.
Hope folks set the booze aside if they're gambling "predicting" in their 401Ks.
BTW - as a long time occasional user of Draft Kings for making small $1 wagers on baseball or basketball games, I've pretty much lost interest. (1) There's every incentive in the world for shyster players to throw a game one way or another in return for payment from the professionals. A lot of folks wager on total points. That means if your team wins by 3 points instead of 5 points millions of dollars change hands based on that seemingly negligible difference. (2) DraftKings now loads the app up with pop-up "invitations" to partake of more lucrative (for them) activities. Roulette and black-jack are a couple "games" they try to lure people into. These can be very aggressively displayed and difficult to avoid. A bit like how Amazon used to lure unsuspecting people into Prime subscriptions before the courts stopped it. The DK scene has gotten pretty disgusting really. I haven't wagered on a single game this year.
"As I recall Kalshi & Polymarket have Demented Donnie's elder son as either a paid advisor or a board member. How is that not a huge conflict of interest for these companies??"
"At the intersection of the prediction market industry and Trump world is Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son. He is both an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket, and a paid adviser to Kalshi, the two biggest prediction markets. And he is a director of the Trump family’s social media company, which recently announced it would start its own platform called Truth Predict."
"Ethics experts say the younger Mr. Trump’s frequent proximity to the president, along with his advisers, their staff members and their cohorts, also naturally prompts suspicions even if he neither knows nor shares any information that could influence the markets."
Comments
gamblingswapping addiction issues?IMO prediction markets, like sports betting, are simply another way to separate people from their money. And anyone using the (easily-gamed) prediction market 'preditions' to invest is probably going to get their faces ripped off.
Predictions markets are just coming out of existential crises, so it's too soon for them to think about social impacts of their businesses. This issue may be better addressed to the likes of Robinhood/HOOD, Webull/BULL Interactive Brokers/IBKR, Charles Schwab/SCHW, Intercontinental Exchange/ICE, etc.
gambling"predicting" in their 401Ks.BTW - as a long time occasional user of Draft Kings for making small $1 wagers on baseball or basketball games, I've pretty much lost interest. (1) There's every incentive in the world for shyster players to throw a game one way or another in return for payment from the professionals. A lot of folks wager on total points. That means if your team wins by 3 points instead of 5 points millions of dollars change hands based on that seemingly negligible difference. (2) DraftKings now loads the app up with pop-up "invitations" to partake of more lucrative (for them) activities. Roulette and black-jack are a couple "games" they try to lure people into. These can be very aggressively displayed and difficult to avoid. A bit like how Amazon used to lure unsuspecting people into Prime subscriptions before the courts stopped it. The DK scene has gotten pretty disgusting really. I haven't wagered on a single game this year.
as either a paid advisor or a board member.
How is that not a huge conflict of interest for these companies??"
"At the intersection of the prediction market industry and Trump world is Donald Trump Jr.,
the president’s eldest son. He is both an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket,
and a paid adviser to Kalshi, the two biggest prediction markets.
And he is a director of the Trump family’s social media company,
which recently announced it would start its own platform called Truth Predict."
"Ethics experts say the younger Mr. Trump’s frequent proximity to the president, along with his advisers,
their staff members and their cohorts, also naturally prompts suspicions even if he neither knows
nor shares any information that could influence the markets."
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/us/politics/donald-trump-jr-prediction-markets.html?unlocked_article_code=1.NFA.th4W.TLxbIn1oOBMa&smid=url-share