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Reality finally hit. Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz where major oil and LNG flow through. Going around that region adds 10 days and 30% cost. Math would say higher cost for everything including inflation. The US dollar is the safe heaven during stress time such as now.
We will be patient with our cash position. This war will last for a while. That is what you get with war plan without clear and executable objectives. Can you say Iraq 2.0, and we all know how that ended?
Think AI will save their asses? Strategic planning takes exhaustive analysis of many scenarios and their possible outcomes before executing one of the plan.
Operation Overload Overlord during WWII took many months of detailed planning and it went mostly well in order to defeat the Nazis within 6 months.
I've got a lotta cash that is probably devaluing faster than it is earning.
The dollar index has been rising. Among the ultra-shorts I track, TBUX and USFR are up today. I'll have to wait a while to see how the FEUGX FGUSX in my IRA performed.
At some point I plan add to my foreign holdings. I think the factors that were causing the sell-America trade are likely to be amplified by this war. What that time to buy will look like I couldn't tell you exactly, but the dollar index will likely be part of it.
OTOH, current events are likely to spur the rate of inflation. I was mainly thinking about asset prices above.
I've got a lotta cash that is probably devaluing faster than it is earning.
Not devaluing faster than equities, though. I also have a lot of cash (actually TBUX mainly). And feel pretty good about that.
The trick is having, first the patience to wait, then the guts to buy. No need to jump too soon, I don't think. Have you made a wish list? I will probably just add to exiting stock positions, myself. And select mutual funds.
I've got a lotta cash that is probably devaluing faster than it is earning.
The dollar index has been rising. Among the ultra-shorts I track, TBUX and USFR are up today. I'll have to wait a while to see how the FEUGX FGUSX in my IRA performed.
At some point I plan add to my foreign holdings. I think the factors that were causing the sell-America trade are likely to be amplified by this war. What that time to buy will look like I couldn't tell you exactly, but the dollar index will likely be part of it.
OTOH, current events are likely to spur the rate of inflation. I was mainly thinking about asset prices above.
I do too.
My quick check of my holdings, indicates that SMIDs have held up really well on the 1-week. As one might expect, total market index doing okay on the 1-week too. Surprisingly my large cap index is holding its own.
A lot of fixed income is getting walloped.
Small and mid growth getting hit hardest on the equity front.
Not too late, at all. If you plan to put cash to work. There are even some FI issues to consider. When I have no better plan, I just add to existing positions.
For all we know, there could be better opportunities in the coming months. Cash is not bad when everything is sinking, ask Warren Buffett.
Not too late, at all. If you plan to put cash to work. There are even some FI issues to consider. When I have no better plan, I just add to existing positions.
For all we know, there could be better opportunities in the coming months. Cash is not bad when everything is sinking, ask Warren Buffett.
That's the perennial problem when you're holding cash... earlier in life I wasted several years waiting for a 'better' opportunity that never came. Ergo now, I will nibble to plant my flag and remind myself "hey! you need to build this position!"
You are not wrong. I have been content to earn +5.5% on MMF/TBUX for the last couple years, while taking outsized risk in growth ventures. It has provided peace of mind.
But, I still agree with you on waiting for a better entry point that never comes. At 64% equity currently, and retiring this year at age 67, I am at my risk limit. My other problem is that I tend to get into riskier FI than might be recommended, such as Pimco CEFs and funds like EGRIX. Holding excess cash is my security blanket.
Another wrinkle, not entirely rational, is that much of our MMF/TBUX was from the sale of the MILs home. It never felt right to toss it into risky assets. I have been feeding it in very slowly, very cautiously. I have done as you say, some starter position is consumer defensive (CLX. CL, MDLZ, BMY). I think I may add to them, now that we speak of it.
Comments
We will be patient with our cash position. This war will last for a while. That is what you get with war plan without clear and executable objectives. Can you say Iraq 2.0, and we all know how that ended?
Operation
OverloadOverlord during WWII took many months of detailed planning and it went mostly well in order to defeat the Nazis within 6 months.FEUGXFGUSX in my IRA performed.At some point I plan add to my foreign holdings. I think the factors that were causing the sell-America trade are likely to be amplified by this war. What that time to buy will look like I couldn't tell you exactly, but the dollar index will likely be part of it.
OTOH, current events are likely to spur the rate of inflation. I was mainly thinking about asset prices above.
The trick is having, first the patience to wait, then the guts to buy. No need to jump too soon, I don't think. Have you made a wish list? I will probably just add to exiting stock positions, myself. And select mutual funds.
My quick check of my holdings, indicates that SMIDs have held up really well on the 1-week. As one might expect, total market index doing okay on the 1-week too. Surprisingly my large cap index is holding its own.
A lot of fixed income is getting walloped.
Small and mid growth getting hit hardest on the equity front.
Not too late, at all. If you plan to put cash to work. There are even some FI issues to consider. When I have no better plan, I just add to existing positions.
For all we know, there could be better opportunities in the coming months. Cash is not bad when everything is sinking, ask Warren Buffett.
You are not wrong. I have been content to earn +5.5% on MMF/TBUX for the last couple years, while taking outsized risk in growth ventures. It has provided peace of mind.
But, I still agree with you on waiting for a better entry point that never comes. At 64% equity currently, and retiring this year at age 67, I am at my risk limit. My other problem is that I tend to get into riskier FI than might be recommended, such as Pimco CEFs and funds like EGRIX. Holding excess cash is my security blanket.
Another wrinkle, not entirely rational, is that much of our MMF/TBUX was from the sale of the MILs home. It never felt right to toss it into risky assets. I have been feeding it in very slowly, very cautiously. I have done as you say, some starter position is consumer defensive (CLX. CL, MDLZ, BMY). I think I may add to them, now that we speak of it.