Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I look at these "interventions" in the mid-east where we kill hundreds/thousands in the name of freedom as just creating another generation of youth to hate America. Does anyone think the youth in Palestine love us after we supply the weapons used kill their relatives.
Sadly, I can't argue with any of this. But I feel an urge to connect with Dr. David's original title for this thread: Don't be a hero. I hope I'm not in denial about that, but the only serious move I'm anywhere nearly thinking about is to perhaps get out of EWS and into IDEQ. However, the tide is still receding. There is no escape, unless we go all-in to the MMkt, eh?
I look at these "interventions" in the mid-east where we kill hundreds/thousands in the name of freedom as just creating another generation of youth to hate America. Does anyone think the youth in Palestine love us after we supply the weapons used kill their relatives.
Yeah - like invade Iraq, dump the Sunnis, create ISIS.
My model signaled a sell a week ago Monday and I sold everything, which was 2 bond funds. I locked 4+% for YTD mainly with EGRIX. I posted the sell on another site. Risk is lower now, but I'm waiting. I the next 2+ weeks I will keep watching from Greece while drinking ouzo.
As usual, my actions are based on current markets and never on politics.
I look at these "interventions" in the mid-east where we kill hundreds/thousands in the name of freedom as just creating another generation of youth to hate America. Does anyone think the youth in Palestine love us after we supply the weapons used kill their relatives.
Yeah - like invade Iraq, dump the Sunnis, create ISIS.
And that came from a much more level headed crowd, who assessed many probabilities.
This is another example of ready, fire. aim. There are no level heads or lengthy considerations. The narrative was, that "this could take a while". Then when the markets tanked, oil futures hit $120, panic kicked in and TACO prevailed, "We are almost done".
What have we accomplished? They really thought that they would potentially create regime change, so they started an armed conflict. Then they figured out (were advised) that was NEVER going to happen, and the whole story now changes.
More chaos, more destruction, more uncertainty. Do not be surprised if every leg up does not trigger more selling. The same economic headwinds that were in force before we started launching missiles at Iran, are still in place.
Oh, and we are running out of valuable munitions, apparently that wasn't even taken into account before entering into hostilities. Iran may continue launching drones, just to deplete patriot and THAAD capabilities. That will continue to be costly to U.S. and U.S. interests.
This is the reason that previous administrations did not attack Iran directly. Not because "they couldn't do it", which is an inane thing to even say.
And this is the reason that an administration that brags about "cheap oil" is already backing down, after claiming that "it would take a while". Another boast that did not age well. Expect a lot of damage control gaslighting, that doesn't hold an ounce of water.
•The Strait of Hormuz closure has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to Rapidan Energy.
•About 20% of global supply has been disrupted for nine days, more than double the previous record set during the Suez crisis of 1956.
•There is virtually no spare capacity to address the problem because Saudi Arabia and the UAE are cut off from the global oil market, Rapidan said.
One should assume that our "allies" in the ME are not happy that they are unable to ship oil, and in the direct line of fire. They did warn against it. Then got dragged in, against their will.
This afternoon we're told that the war is almost over:
"U.S. stocks finished higher on Monday, overcoming several days of declines caused by the Middle East conflict with Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could be over soon.
The S&P 500 (SP500) ended +0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) finished +1.4%, and the Dow (DJI) closed +0.5%.
Crude oil prices (CL1:COM), which initially surged to over $119 per barrel over fears of potential supply disruptions, saw a historic swing by Monday’s market close, dropping more than 6.8% to about $84.
Lastly, bond yields were lower. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was 2 basis points lower at 4.11%, while the 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y) dropped 1 basis point to 3.55%."
I am less interested in the substance of what he says, than the timing and motivation behind it all, as detailed above. We know that nothing he says can be trusted.
Cuba? No national security threat. Just another bully move. But, they do not control the flow of oil. What is the upside? A few more Cuban votes from deep red Florida?
I am less interested in the substance of what he says, than the timing and motivation behind it all, as detailed above. We know that nothing he says can be trusted.
Cuba? No national security threat. Just another bully move. But, they do not control the flow of oil. What is the upside? A few more Cuban votes from deep red Florida?
Seriously? You are participating in the same site and can verify that I posted my sell. Interesting that you are nice on that site otherwise you would be punished. -------+------------
As expected, you guys are going to scream and complain about oil. After it will go down, you will find something else. Just the usual reminder. When inflation was the highest in the last 4 decades and most people really suffered and when 12 million illegals entered the country with thousands of criminals and terrorists...you were very quiet. It didn't happen during Obama, and only during Biden. Can't be more hypocritical than that.
Iran now has a new ayatollah, even more hardline and that is seemingly okay now. And trump's claim is that "they have no leadership", which is obviously not true. Nor is the claim that “It’s the beginning of building a new country” . Really?
Hegseth claims the "war is just beginning", trump says "almost over". That is a pretty big disconnect between a POTUS and DefSec. Maybe they don't talk? lol
The narratives keep changing and maga just laps it up. Just tell them a story, any story, and they fall into line.
No one has ever seen such a military success, but we will not be engaging in foreign wars. Pick the one that you like.
"Trump, who with his deputies has offered shifting explanations of what the war’s objective is, did not on Monday detail his end game," best to keep it vague and call whatever happens a "success". Cannot go wrong there!
Importantly, Putin was "very impressed" and that appears to be very important to trump.
Very, very important that an authoritarian leader thinks the world of him.
From that CNBC precis: Trump spoke earlier in the day to Russian leader Vladimir Putin about the war, which the U.S. and Israel began on Feb. 28.
...And why would a PRESIDENT (a-hem) be talking about any war we are fighting, with an ADVERSARY? Oh, I forgot: Russian asset. Our President is a Russian asset. And they are both war criminals and human rights abusers.
Importantly, Putin was "very impressed" and that appears to be very important to trump.
Very, very important that an authoritarian leader thinks the world of him.
Sounds like a Russian asset to me. Meanwhile, he is making BILLIONS illegally and playing golf daily with a govt escort (on our tax bill).
Most corrupt regime in US history, and it's not even close.
He promises no foreign interventions, then makes a list of weaker countries to attack. It is like a weird political comedy movie, that would be unbelievable.
He promises affordability, then drives up the price of literally everything. His supporters offer whataboutisms, instead of being outraged at the obvious deception. They seem to believe any prior circumstances somehow offset current actions. You know who doesn't see things that way? Swing voters, who appear pretty disillusioned.
It appears maga would accept anything and respond, "Thank you Sir, may I have another".
10-weeks into the year and the S&P is -1.5%. He cannot even blame the prior administration who handed him 2 prior straight years of +25% gains. After 14 months of his economic leadership, he has effectively killed all of the momentum. The economy was back on track after covid, and trump brought it to its knees with import taxes and foreign interventions.
Dishonest? Mmm...there are small lies and there are huge lies that happened for years.
Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has repeatedly stated for years throughout his tenure that the U.S. southern border is "closed" and "secured". Biden repeated this lie many times too. 12 million illegals came thru. Let's discuss the big lie.
"10-weeks into the year and the S&P is -1.5%"
Wow, remember 2022. Stocks had a bear market during the year and bonds had the worst year in decades. Oops, the truth hurts.
The economy was back on track after covid, and trump brought it to its knees with import taxes and foreign interventions.
We are stuck with a feeble old narcissist at the helm. Ironic that MAGA slammed Joe for being too old, yet now we have a worse version. A more dangerous and corrupt version.
There are rumors that his world is now a very tiny bubble where he accepts guidance from a select group of contacts. He can't bother with rallies so much as he is aging out. He may not even realize that public perception of the Iran war is low....his bubble protects him.
Eventually, US markets will come down under this regime, but food prices will likely not. How can an old man who doesn't even know the word "grocery" be expected to grasp what US people are facing out there day to day?
desi lydic scraped all the rightwing media sources for convenient MAGA parroting on trump's peace plan : ...sometimes you have to start a war, that's already a 40yr war, to prevent a war, that is technically not a war in case congress may feel pouty...
It has reached the point where the only response to the shitshow is to spout whataboutisms and sputter, "I'm rubber, your glue". Been that way for a while.
So much projection and inference, in the assumption that any intelligent person would be okay, if their guy was doing this wacky BS. No, they wouldn't. Only the id10ts in any party are looking the other way when anybody acts this way.
Comments
I locked 4+% for YTD mainly with EGRIX.
I posted the sell on another site.
Risk is lower now, but I'm waiting. I the next 2+ weeks I will keep watching from Greece while drinking ouzo.
As usual, my actions are based on current markets and never on politics.
This is another example of ready, fire. aim. There are no level heads or lengthy considerations. The narrative was, that "this could take a while". Then when the markets tanked, oil futures hit $120, panic kicked in and TACO prevailed, "We are almost done".
What have we accomplished? They really thought that they would potentially create regime change, so they started an armed conflict. Then they figured out (were advised) that was NEVER going to happen, and the whole story now changes.
More chaos, more destruction, more uncertainty. Do not be surprised if every leg up does not trigger more selling. The same economic headwinds that were in force before we started launching missiles at Iran, are still in place.
Oh, and we are running out of valuable munitions, apparently that wasn't even taken into account before entering into hostilities. Iran may continue launching drones, just to deplete patriot and THAAD capabilities. That will continue to be costly to U.S. and U.S. interests.
This is the reason that previous administrations did not attack Iran directly. Not because "they couldn't do it", which is an inane thing to even say.
And this is the reason that an administration that brags about "cheap oil" is already backing down, after claiming that "it would take a while". Another boast that did not age well. Expect a lot of damage control gaslighting, that doesn't hold an ounce of water.
•The Strait of Hormuz closure has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to Rapidan Energy.
•About 20% of global supply has been disrupted for nine days, more than double the previous record set during the Suez crisis of 1956.
•There is virtually no spare capacity to address the problem because Saudi Arabia and the UAE are cut off from the global oil market, Rapidan said.
One should assume that our "allies" in the ME are not happy that they are unable to ship oil, and in the direct line of fire. They did warn against it. Then got dragged in, against their will.
"U.S. stocks finished higher on Monday, overcoming several days of declines caused by the Middle East conflict with Iran, as U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could be over soon.
The S&P 500 (SP500) ended +0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) finished +1.4%, and the Dow (DJI) closed +0.5%.
Crude oil prices (CL1:COM), which initially surged to over $119 per barrel over fears of potential supply disruptions, saw a historic swing by Monday’s market close, dropping more than 6.8% to about $84.
Lastly, bond yields were lower. The 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) was 2 basis points lower at 4.11%, while the 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y) dropped 1 basis point to 3.55%."
Let's see how that ages.
Cuba is up next.
I am less interested in the substance of what he says, than the timing and motivation behind it all, as detailed above. We know that nothing he says can be trusted.
Cuba? No national security threat. Just another bully move. But, they do not control the flow of oil. What is the upside? A few more Cuban votes from deep red Florida?
Yes, Cuba is small scale and it's just the next distraction. More chaos. "Look over here, boy....over here." Gotta keep em lined up.
There is no substance behind these actions.
You are participating in the same site and can verify that I posted my sell.
Interesting that you are nice on that site otherwise you would be punished.
-------+------------
As expected, you guys are going to scream and complain about oil.
After it will go down, you will find something else.
Just the usual reminder.
When inflation was the highest in the last 4 decades and most people really suffered and when 12 million illegals entered the country with thousands of criminals and terrorists...you were very quiet.
It didn't happen during Obama, and only during Biden.
Can't be more hypocritical than that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/trump-iran-war-end.html
Iran now has a new ayatollah, even more hardline and that is seemingly okay now. And trump's claim is that "they have no leadership", which is obviously not true. Nor is the claim that “It’s the beginning of building a new country” . Really?
Hegseth claims the "war is just beginning", trump says "almost over". That is a pretty big disconnect between a POTUS and DefSec. Maybe they don't talk? lol
The narratives keep changing and maga just laps it up. Just tell them a story, any story, and they fall into line.
No one has ever seen such a military success, but we will not be engaging in foreign wars. Pick the one that you like.
"Trump, who with his deputies has offered shifting explanations of what the war’s objective is, did not on Monday detail his end game," best to keep it vague and call whatever happens a "success". Cannot go wrong there!
Importantly, Putin was "very impressed" and that appears to be very important to trump.
Very, very important that an authoritarian leader thinks the world of him.
Most corrupt regime in US history, and it's not even close.
...And why would a PRESIDENT (a-hem) be talking about any war we are fighting, with an ADVERSARY? Oh, I forgot: Russian asset. Our President is a Russian asset. And they are both war criminals and human rights abusers.
It is like a weird political comedy movie, that would be unbelievable.
He promises affordability, then drives up the price of literally everything. His supporters offer whataboutisms, instead of being outraged at the obvious deception. They seem to believe any prior circumstances somehow offset current actions. You know who doesn't see things that way? Swing voters, who appear pretty disillusioned.
It appears maga would accept anything and respond, "Thank you Sir, may I have another".
10-weeks into the year and the S&P is -1.5%. He cannot even blame the prior administration who handed him 2 prior straight years of +25% gains. After 14 months of his economic leadership, he has effectively killed all of the momentum. The economy was back on track after covid, and trump brought it to its knees with import taxes and foreign interventions.
Mmm...there are small lies and there are huge lies that happened for years.
Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has repeatedly stated for years throughout his tenure that the U.S. southern border is "closed" and "secured".
Biden repeated this lie many times too.
12 million illegals came thru.
Let's discuss the big lie.
"10-weeks into the year and the S&P is -1.5%"
Wow, remember 2022.
Stocks had a bear market during the year and bonds had the worst year in decades.
Oops, the truth hurts.
There are rumors that his world is now a very tiny bubble where he accepts guidance from a select group of contacts. He can't bother with rallies so much as he is aging out. He may not even realize that public perception of the Iran war is low....his bubble protects him.
Eventually, US markets will come down under this regime, but food prices will likely not. How can an old man who doesn't even know the word "grocery" be expected to grasp what US people are facing out there day to day?
Heck, he doesn't know Iran from Iraq.
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/going-to-war-again-for-israel
desi lydic scraped all the rightwing media sources for convenient MAGA parroting on trump's peace plan :
...sometimes you have to start a war, that's already a 40yr war, to prevent a war, that is technically not a war in case congress may feel pouty...
So much projection and inference, in the assumption that any intelligent person would be okay, if their guy was doing this wacky BS. No, they wouldn't. Only the id10ts in any party are looking the other way when anybody acts this way.