Looking at Ambev (ABV), now almost -30% from the 52wk high (which was only around late Jan/early Feb - a delightful chart -
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABV) as Brazil mkts continue to move lower. Looking at stronger Asian banks if China fears spread (such as DBS, United Overseas bank). Looking at Wal-Mart/P & G. Looking at telecoms both here and elsewhere. Looking at American Tower (AMT) and other REITs.
Would love to short GME if I could.
Comments
1.1% decline in our (primarily) US based funds, and a very close 0.98% decline in our world/EM funds. No significant difference in the reaction of the two groups. With respect to our remaining bond fund exposure, 0.25% decline for US stuff, and 0.29% for world/EM.
Not sure of what to make of the selective selling. Does this mean that the "blood in the streets' moment is some distance away? Or does it indicate that this is a milder correction than some fear?
BWG
The above are my rambling thoughts. Feel free to poke holes in the arguments -- I am still trying to get a better handle on what is happening.
On another note, nice to see PMHIX holding up well today -- has participated in the upside all year and barely dropped today.
BWG
-1.9% ... US Equity: ANCFX, ACMVX, GABAX, GASFX, MFLDX, ABALX, TWSMX
-2.8% ... EM/World Equity: SMCWX, CWGIX, ANEFX, MAPIX, ARTGX, SFGIX, WAFMX
-0.7% ... US Bonds: ABNDX, AIBAX, AHITX, ABHIX, RPHYX, PONDX
-2.8% ... EM/World Bonds: MAINX
(Since we currently hold only MAINX in that last category the percentage drop may not be representative of that category.)
Of note:
MFLDX more than held it's own today, down only 0.4% ... (Thank you, Scott!)
GASFX didn't do well at all, down a bit over 3% ... (Why do I listen to you, Scott?)
MAPIX bought the dust, down almost 4% ... "O bury me not, on the lone prairie..."
SFGIX wasn't so hot either, down 3.2%
I really do think that after a period of instability there will be a decent buying opportunity, perhaps within the next few months once they sort out who will be in charge at the Fed. I think that the market bias is towards about 1650-ish, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it at that by year's end.
Disclaimer: Anyone who either listens to me or (God forbid!) acts on my suggestions is even screwier than I am, and that's going some.
Of note: Didn't MAPIX declare a dividend today?
Mona
If I didn't know better, I'd say this whole #!*##* mess is Bernanke's answer to Obama. (Of course that couldn't be:-)
Thanks- OJ
BWG
Glad MFLDX did well today (it remains a large holding), although as for GASFX, I never owned it. I do like gas infrastructure (particularly Kinder Morgan, which I continue to add to and I'll continue to reinvest divs with the 6.25% or so yield), but have never focused on GASFX.
In theory I like GASFX because I like energy infrastructure, but I prefer to stick with a few of the largest names in the industry rather than a broader fund. A number of these names haven't done well with rising rates, but I'd continue to add if there is further downside - but that's just me (others should do their own research, etc etc etc etc...)
Schwab also has PHMIX as NTF, with their usual 2.5k minimum, which is fine.
Scott, do you have a feel as to when might be a good time to consider an opening position in PHMIX? Thanks a lot- OJ
PHMIX is an interesting fund - it had a very so-so start but has taken off this year. Given that it's a very concentrated (not Fairholme concentrated, but concentrated) fund (and concentrated l/s), I expect it to remain somewhat inconsistent over the long-term. I do own it, though and have certainly been pleased at recent performance. Some hedge funds that have turned into mutual funds have become erratic after the transformation, but this one has done fine overall and not a lot has seemingly been lost in the translation. It continues to be heavy cash and takes the view that cash is in some ways a hedge.
From the Pimco website: "We short stocks when we identify an opportunity to generate alpha as opposed to simply hedge risk. Companies we short tend to fall into two categories: Fundamental shorts, or companies in secular decline, and cyclical shorts, or businesses that will be impacted the most when the economy is weakening.
When our outlook is bearish and our objective is to hedge, cash management usually is our first line of defense. In bear markets, the strategy can go 100% into cash and cash equivalents to avoid downside risk. To help preserve investors’ capital, in September 2008, for instance, the strategy was invested mostly in cash and cash equivalents. "
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Solutions/Pages/Long-Short-Equity-Strategy.aspx
It lost 4.9% in 2008 and did well (for a l/s fund) in 2009/2010, but had off 2011/2012 years before doing well this year (again, may do well over time, but with on/off years given that it's a concentrated l/s fund?)
In terms of alternatives, I remain particularly interested in what the alternative portfolio of the T Rowe Global Allocation fund will look like, although that hasn't been revealed yet. Although their quant funds have gotten a mixed reception, AQR's new L/S fund (which will apparently be mostly net-long, from what the prospectus acts like) should be coming out any day now.
Regards- OJ
BWG