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This worked at this pc..............free pass/trial thingy. Your access happiness may vary................ No, I did not yet read this article. Will currently remain 50/50, domestic equity/IG bonds.
All good --- SSHFX was bruited by Consumer Reports some years ago --- but having today closely reviewed 3y+ outperformance and risks via MFO, M*, and Lipper, I predict beating them all of them in that LV space via DSENX / DSEEX / CAPE, and am moving even more moneys into DSEEX as we speak.
DSENX is also a big part of my portfolio, but no scheme works all the time. I'm a little worried when value-stock trends subside this fund will feel some slower days. But, don't blame you for piling on while it is running strong.
Actually David I think your posts are the what got me interested in this fund early last year, so thanks.
Yeah, you mentioned that concern before. All I care about is that it continues to seriously outperform SP500, whose value components surely will dip at some point, yes, and all its div etfs.
With considerably less risk and downside movement (as analyzed for Sharpe / Sortino / Martin ratios and Ulcer Index per MFO, plus M* and Lipper's quintile rankings), CAPE alone has outperformed SP500 significantly, if I am reading the M* data right, by:
15% in '14
331% in '15
51% in '16
DSENX / DSEEX has improved on the above by another percent or so, amazingly, owing to Gundlach's secret global-bond sauces.
We have not had real testing dips, of course, but it does less badly whenever we have had the little ones the last 3+ years.
I learned about this consistent engine from Snowball / MFO writeup. (So hopefully sometime this year I should be able to do more in return than just the Amz thing.)
The Shiller Barclays CAPE US Core Sector Index -- underlying index for the CAPE ETN --has had attractive backtested returns during periods of both growth dominant and value dominant markets. So I am adequately confident to hold DSEEX in varying market conditions. In fact, last week I increased my DSEEX position from 15 to 18%. And like @davidmoran, I am confident that Gundlach will enable his mutual fund to have a higher upside/downside ratio relative to the CAPE ETN. But of course, the future is unknown.
Thanks. Boy, I would like to look close at the 02-04 period and also it seems the 06-08 period and understand what was going on, if that is underperformance I see.
You can get some sense of G vs V just by plotting RPG and RPV over various spans. I am always impressed when their 50-50 average outdoes RSP.
Yep, I too am in DSENX thanks to David Moran and am grateful to you for pointing it out; but I don't know if this is a buy and forget about it fund. Quant funds tend to work very well until suddenly they don't, especially ones like DSENX, which have a rigid formula that they can't change.
Unfortunately I'm not real sure how to figure out when that turning point comes, hence my staying in Bridgeway far longer than I should have.
And I remain in DSENX and grateful to David for pointing it out, it's been great and still is.
What would the turning point be and how would it be arrived at and proceed? Necessarily a general broad slump (SP500), no? Or sentiment where the lower-valuation SP500 were somehow deemed excessively expensive and the higher-valuation SP500 not?
The original trumpeting credit, again, goes entirely to Snowball / MFO.
All good --- SSHFX was bruited by Consumer Reports some years ago --- but having today closely reviewed 3y+ outperformance and risks via MFO, M*, and Lipper, I predict beating them all of them in that LV space via DSENX / DSEEX / CAPE, and am moving even more moneys into DSEEX as we speak.
I have been a DL investor. I noted the buzz here on this board when this fund opened. It's certainly doing spectacularly. I read the short version of what this fund is about on the DL page. I understand the description, but not all the implications. Is this a fund that a rank amateur should be considering? DSEEX Cape-Schiller.
Hi Crash. I'm certainly in the rank amateur club too, but the fund certainly fits with the buy low sell high mantra. The perfect value/contrarian style I have tried to use myself with out much success. This fund does it for me with a fairly simple formula I can understand.
Right or wrong, I don't view the fund as a pure equity large cap value fund as M* labels it. I see it more as a balanced fund (which I prefer) because it does use debt securities/bonds for total return and to damper volatility. I'm always leary when something seems to good to be true, so I hold the thought this fund will not perform as it is now in every economic scenario. It has to see soft spots somewhere down the line. But, it sure has knocked it out of the park for the last 3 years. I've upped it to about 15% of my portfolio, right up there with PRWCX and ICMBX as my biggest holdings.
Compare it with CAPE and you can see that the global-bond sauce augments it quite differently from (to a worrisome degree, some might suggest) a balanced fund. Thus far.
According to the prospectus, it was backtested to hold up especially well in a downturn. For me, if it passes that test, it will be a buy and forget about it fund, at least until its success becomes watered down by imitators. The CAPE calculations are public and easy to imitate, though of course Gundlach's portion will remain his special domain.
Comments
is the free link
This worked at this pc..............free pass/trial thingy.
Your access happiness may vary................
No, I did not yet read this article.
Will currently remain 50/50, domestic equity/IG bonds.
Actually David I think your posts are the what got me interested in this fund early last year, so thanks.
With considerably less risk and downside movement (as analyzed for Sharpe / Sortino / Martin ratios and Ulcer Index per MFO, plus M* and Lipper's quintile rankings), CAPE alone has outperformed SP500 significantly, if I am reading the M* data right, by:
15% in '14
331% in '15
51% in '16
DSENX / DSEEX has improved on the above by another percent or so, amazingly, owing to Gundlach's secret global-bond sauces.
We have not had real testing dips, of course, but it does less badly whenever we have had the little ones the last 3+ years.
I learned about this consistent engine from Snowball / MFO writeup. (So hopefully sometime this year I should be able to do more in return than just the Amz thing.)
Growth vs. Value
Backtested Returns of CAPE Index
CAPE vs. DSEEX
Kevin
You can get some sense of G vs V just by plotting RPG and RPV over various spans. I am always impressed when their 50-50 average outdoes RSP.
Is it really Gundlach's fund?
Unfortunately I'm not real sure how to figure out when that turning point comes, hence my staying in Bridgeway far longer than I should have.
And I remain in DSENX and grateful to David for pointing it out, it's been great and still is.
The original trumpeting credit, again, goes entirely to Snowball / MFO.
Right or wrong, I don't view the fund as a pure equity large cap value fund as M* labels it. I see it more as a balanced fund (which I prefer) because it does use debt securities/bonds for total return and to damper volatility. I'm always leary when something seems to good to be true, so I hold the thought this fund will not perform as it is now in every economic scenario. It has to see soft spots somewhere down the line. But, it sure has knocked it out of the park for the last 3 years. I've upped it to about 15% of my portfolio, right up there with PRWCX and ICMBX as my biggest holdings.
I suspect I'll get my test soon enough.