Howdy,
Well, sitt'in here with 67% equity/33% bond blend at this time.
Looking at 3%/month average for the year (as of March 1); which would amount to at least a 36% annualized rate of return.
Will this pattern hold for the full year? Ha, one wouldn't think so, eh?
With this mix, at +6% so far for the year; surely there are other portfolios here much in front of this.
Watching from the sidelines, the political state of affairs, both domestic and international. Can't find a complete common thread for optimism from the political sector, except for the "let us see what happens" with the group of folks who appear to be traveling in another direction which will likely have economic meanings.
At this point, for this house, the technical aspects have more weigh than whatever fundamental aspects provide for where our monies may travel in the coming months.
Lastly, this post remains personal data investment oriented only, for the benefit of whomever chooses to view. I find no reason to interject any political or similar wandering. The "flag" icon has its uses.
The Mix = 67% equity and 33% bond
-Equity portion =
---U.S. oriented = 80.6%
---foreign = 19.4%
-Bond portion =
---investment grade = 81%
--- other =19%
Just a simple view of a real and active retirement portfolio.
Fun for now.
Hang in there,
Catch
Comments
Best thing to do here is to make note of which investments are outperforming versus the SP index. It will show if you have any laggards. This is just one instance in time so you need more evidence before ejecting any bad performers. Same way with going in the other direction. Over time you can pick out the good ones from the poorer performers.
Hi @JohnChisum @Old_Joe
You'll have to help me with the chickens and eggs (too tired today, I suppose; and cold).
And I still keep a watchful eye, at least for the next few months. I run all the numbers related to holdings every weekend; as well as other areas looking for a trend...up or down.
Hi @MikeM
I did a quick M* review of the 67% of the portfolio that is equity and the following was shown (domestic and foreign): The top 3.........
-health related at 41% (sector has had a happy new year)
-tech related at 12%
-banks, related financial at 12%
These 3 above account for much of the push YTD; although today it appears I can remove a mental quick view of about .5%. Close guess at 5.5% YTD, as of today.
Extrapolating short term market data for a much longer timeframe is dangerously serious business. It can certainly promote an unrealistic outlook and a deeply flawed projection.
I know you were kidding in your post, but it did surface an interesting question. If equities deliver positive returns in both January and February, what are the likely odds and returns for the entire year?
I sure don't have an answer, but Sam Stovall has appently addressed this same question. I don't have a primary source reference, but here is what a secondary source reported:
"(The) S&P jumped 3.7 percent in February after rising 1.8 percent in January. In the 27 years since 1945 that the S&P rose in both January and February, the S&P recorded a positive full year return 27 out of 27 times, averaging a total return of 24 percent,"
I lifted this summary paragraph from the following article:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/01/wall-streets-super-charged-bull-faces-its-own-march-madness.html
I haven't checked its accuracy. Apparently, so said Stovall. I was greatly surprised. So your fun projection might just be slightly overly optimistic.
I was also surprised that the S&P 500 generated positive January and February outcomes 27 times since 1945. Wow! That's 38 % of the time.
History is an important factor when making investment decisions. However, it is an imperfect measure; change happens. I know you recognize its shortcomings and are acting to protect your portfolio.
Best Wishes
EDIT: Here is a Limk to an article that presents the basic data in a chart format:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-bullish-signal-has-never-been-wrong-and-its-about-to-flash-for-2017-2017-02-22
Sam Stovall does excellent historical market research. Enjoy and profit, but note that although all 27 years finished in positive territory, two of those years staggered at the end with only slightly positive outcomes.