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It's here; it was mislabeled on YouTube, but you can tell from the "1 day ago" notation, and one of the guests at one point says something like "and here we are, January 27, and" blah blah.
We have the car & home insurance at rates The Hartford offers to AARP members, have had for years. The one time I checked around to see how competitive the rates were, what we had was significantly cheaper so we stayed put. That's the only reaso…
@Crash: Marigolds! If what you planted are anything like the calendula* seeds I put out ~ 15 years ago, they reseed like mad and make a good cover you'll never have to replant.
* A marigold native to North America, only distantly related to some o…
Pure conjecture here: maybe it's when an econ downturn has arguably started, and sellers see a Fed rate cut as confirmation. And maybe some of the $ goes into bonds, the buyers banking on cap gains with more rate cuts.
One factor is whether brokerages are carrying HSAFX. Don't know about all of them, but Fidelity continues to refuse to make it available. I've put in a request for it three times now, and the answer continues to be no.
Here's that Pimco Jan. 11 outlook piece Clarida referred to (very detailed): Cyclical Outlook: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds.
Didn't realize he's a Pimco guy.
The missing piece in all the Fed discussions is this: what measurement are they talkin…
It's always a shame to me when you get and lose a decent human being as a political leader. I totally understand and believe her reasons for stepping aside and admire her for the work she did. Her positions took guts and humility and seemed always i…
Excellent, @Crash. Came here for the link and you already had it posted.
They even touched on EM debt ... which is already running hot. But how long will it last?
Good bit of talk about the risk of Fed overtightening. Two of them seemed to think …
Pimco (especially Pimco Income) didn't do that well during the GFC, but they knocked it out of the park during the recovery. If someone wants to compare the performance between the successes of 2009 ff. and this period, the next two years are where…
Jan 13 edition here.
Some disagreement here: Wells Fargo says inflation is still the leading risk, while the other two think it's the econ slowdown. Interesting to see Peter Tchir (sp?) push back on KG's emphasis on the year-over-year inflation nu…
M* had mentioned that co-lead-manager Yu Zhang was responsible for the recent (5+ years) shift in MAPIX from old current-dividend emphasis to also include dividend-growth emphasis. As a result, MAPIX started behaving similar to other growth-oriented…
Ditto. Plus headline CPI (CPI-U) is +0.9 for the past six months, or 1.8% annualized. (See the bar graph partway down this page.)
Think how meager the yield of an I-bond priced now would be, even if the fixed portion was bumped up a bit. Per Yogi's…
"Did his opponent never think about checking out his claimed credentials? Lots of blame all around on that one."
@Junkster- Man, are you ever right. Next we'll find out that he isn't even a US citizen, and is a jail escapee from Bangladesh.
I read …
Can't wait for the "Florida, Home of Failed Dictators" t-shirts and bumper stickers.
+1 Maybe that’s why I stopped going there … (Add cockroaches to that sticker. :))
Maybe the back of the t-shirt could feature a cockroach next to the words "Y'a…
Can't wait for the "Florida, Home of Failed Dictators" t-shirts and bumper stickers.
I swear I had not seen this WaPo article when I posted the failed dictators bit. "Florida holds a strange, swampy allure for ousted foreign leaders."
Is facing The Netherlands, burning incense and chanting "Go ASML! Go ASML! Go ASML!" considered a "plan"?
Ha! I've had worse plans. Might depend on your choice of incense; could consult an oracle, maybe not the one in Omaha.
Pretty similar portfolio & outlook to what @sma3 described; six years into retirement here with enough to last as long as I don't sustain significant losses. I'm slowly increasing three bond oef positions, expecting at best to get the yields as …
Jeffries has the right messaging down pat. Two years of that style should pay dividends for the whole country. The couple of cutaways to Nancy P. looked like she could burst into tears any second.
Good writeup, @Sven. I forget about VOX; need to visit there more often.
Through the looking glass: the loopy 20 making MTG look less insane? How could this be?
I know it's meaningless, but I do get a chuckle every time I see the scoreboard showin…
ConEd is a head scratcher. I don't disagree with any of those details; not sure why you think I would.
On the other hand, PBD getting downgraded because one part of a tiny (0.72%) holding facilitates offshore oil and gas (while also facilitating o…
As You Sow has really upped its game in the last couple of years since I last visited there. Appears that it is important to look at the details of the ratings.
One more: UUP, the U.S. $ long etf, was in fairly steady climb mode for most of the year, although that's no longer the case ... for now. It was one of the positive contributors in my port for 2022 as a whole.
@davfor, good reminder about SVARX. Haven't owned it for a while, and hadn't checked on it lately; it's interesting to see what they've been doing the past few months. It's back on the short list for now.
The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored…
What worked? For much of the year, managed futures and short stocks (especially the Nasdaq) and junk bonds. Also BTAL, a short high-beta, long low-beta U.S. stock etf that did pretty well, but I only discovered it too late in the year to make much d…
I have very small positions in two IG bond OEFs, hoping from there to spot good entry points toward a more normal allocation this year.
Everything I'm hearing from bondland now (e.g., fixed income leads from various companies on Bloomberg Real Yie…
My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
Same here. Plus, the new rate in May seems pretty likely to be…
I've seen a few articles float the notion, including by PK IIRC, that there's a perception that passing peak inflation tilts (current? near-future?) risk toward recession rather than inflation. (Short rates usually start falling as perceptions of a …
Pimco has a habit of making special December income distributions, larger than the previous months' in their OEFs and CEFs (maybe their ETFs too, don't have much experience with them). They settle on a relatively consistent, usually conservative mon…
The one JG thing I try not to miss is the annual "Just Markets" webcast. It's always a deep dive into data I rarely see explored elsewhere, with little pure opinion, and what there is of that is pretty clear so can be ignored if that's a listener's …
No idea what JG meant, but if you're asking about PIMIX, the NAV lost about 2.2% yesterday, but ~ 1% of that was a distribution.
If JG did mean Pimco Income, it's done better than his flagship fund in just about all time periods this year. Even wi…
@Soupkitchen: On the fund web page, click or scroll down to "Documents," and press "See More" to see all the pieces they put up on the portfolio. Pimco Income page.
I've always found the (monthly updated) Portfolio Statistics spreadsheet, "Detaile…
